Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Ginx, where was that sounding for? MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM has a weenie banding signal across ern CT, RI, and ORH east. ORH is JUST far enough south and east...shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's likely just NAM porn regardless, but this is one of those events where being on the NW side of the precip shield can pay off. Decent deformation signal on the NAM. just getting a closer look at the NAM now...even some decent snow right into MBY. bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 ORH is JUST far enough south and east...shocking. Eh, it might not matter in the end anyways..just sort of outlining the area that the NAM had. The funny thing is that there is almost no closed off 850 low. It's WAA and some shear in the mid levels that produces precip. No CCB or anything like that, so any QPF is oriented in a sw-ne fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 almost guaranteed 12z GFS is coming north relative to 6z...big differences at 1000-500 critical thickness at even 30 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 almost guaranteed 12z GFS is coming north relative to 6z...big differences at 1000-500 critical thickness at even 30 hours Its looking like a hugger or inland runner early on, Further west and trough going neutral, Its warmer as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I know it's the NAM, but these little srn stream s/w's can sometimes surprise. I don't have confidence in a 72 hr NAM prog, but this little guy should be watched. Not that anyone asked but I tried to outline why this event was more likely to happen than not, yesterday. p-type was/is still the concern but I am hedging more toward frozen at this point. I think that drain off the cryosphere N-NW of New England will stingier compared to progs/MOS products because of that, and probably enough for the 1300 partial thickness'. Not to mention dynamics getting involved to seal the deal. Dec, '05 still a reasonable analog for this, though that is NOT to forecast the same result sensibly. NJ model low here folks. The zone of impact is narrow as it always appeared to be. The S/W/mechanics et al are damping as it rides through, but there is enough ambient baroclinic instability with semblance of thermal ribbon in place that vestigial jet nosing in aloft should churn cyclogen as lift rides up frontal slopes lowering sfc pressures along NJ to S of ACK. A detailed difference this time is that the PV in Canada is on the move as this rides over the SE ridge/nears the MA coast, where back when there was a bit more stream separation allowing the S/W to conserve more jet velocities. Thus a [probably] more potent resulted back then. The complete model on how this all works is a bit more complicated but this is gist. I'm thinking a light to perhaps moderate impact early season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Not that anyone asked but I tried to outline why this event was more likely to happen than not, yesterday. p-type was/is still the concern but I am hedging more toward frozen at this point. I think that drain off the cryosphere N-NW of New England will stingier compared to progs/MOS products because of that, and probably enough for the 1300 partial thickness'. Not to mention dynamics getting involved to seal the deal. Dec, '05 still a reasonable analog for this, though that is NOT to forecast the same result sensibly. NJ model low here folks. The zone of impact is narrow as it always appeared to be. The S/W/mechanics et al are damping as it rides through, but there is enough ambient baroclinic instability with semblance of thermal ribbon in place that vestigial jet nosing in aloft should churn cyclogen as lift rides up frontal slopes lowering sfc pressures along NJ to S of ACK. A detailed difference this time is that the PV in Canada is on the move as this rides over the SE ridge/nears the MA coast, where back when there was a bit more stream separation allowing the S/W to conserve more jet velocities. Thus a [probably] more potent resulted back then. The complete model on how this all works is a bit more complicated but this is gist. I'm thinking a light to perhaps moderate impact early season snow. In Tip we trust. We got some northern Alabama snow on this run. Second snowstorm in as many weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'm about to go into a snownh/orh tirade if this fu**ing site f**** up another post I try to make. Yesterday I spent 20 minutes responding to MRG about skiis, hit post it vanishes, just respodned to Fella now same thing. Now that's progress. I seem to remember you complaining about this long before the upgrade I think. Either way, I'm pretty sure it has nothing to do with the board and is on your end. This upgrade everyone hates has a nice new feature called auto save. Just return to the thread and when you're replying, you'll see the "view auto saved content" link in the gray bar just below the text box. Works very nicely for cases such as what you describe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 sprinkles ending as flurries on the GFS. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 hmmm....growing consensus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Whooooooooooooooosh, Se of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Not that anyone asked but I tried to outline why this event was more likely to happen than not, yesterday. p-type was/is still the concern but I am hedging more toward frozen at this point. I think that drain off the cryosphere N-NW of New England will stingier compared to progs/MOS products because of that, and probably enough for the 1300 partial thickness'. Not to mention dynamics getting involved to seal the deal. Dec, '05 still a reasonable analog for this, though that is NOT to forecast the same result sensibly. NJ model low here folks. The zone of impact is narrow as it always appeared to be. The S/W/mechanics et al are damping as it rides through, but there is enough ambient baroclinic instability with semblance of thermal ribbon in place that vestigial jet nosing in aloft should churn cyclogen as lift rides up frontal slopes lowering sfc pressures along NJ to S of ACK. A detailed difference this time is that the PV in Canada is on the move as this rides over the SE ridge/nears the MA coast, where back when there was a bit more stream separation allowing the S/W to conserve more jet velocities. Thus a [probably] more potent resulted back then. The complete model on how this all works is a bit more complicated but this is gist. I'm thinking a light to perhaps moderate impact early season snow. I didn't see your post on that..I blurted out a few reasons late last night why I was mildly interested in it, but I think the thoughts may have been similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 sprinkles ending as flurries on the GFS. LOL Yea there's really nothing funny about it... NAM and euro are more amplified showing hits while the GFS is strungout and SE.. what usually ends up happening there? Fricken classic GFS right there... 60-84 out equals strungout POS time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Whooooooooooooooosh, Se of the BM It did tick NW though. We'll see what the GEFS and Euro do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It did tick NW though. We'll see what the GEFS and Euro do. Yes it did, Seeing it was close to nw bermuda on the 06z............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yea there's really nothing funny about it... NAM and euro are more amplified showing hits while the GFS is strungout and SE.. what usually ends up happening there? snowNH gets the shaft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Weenie flakes on saturday here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Warm humid December day today..... Hopefully something more appropros for the season Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 snowNH gets the shaft No way, trend has been NW and warmer from here on out all year.. I'm way more worried about precip type than qpf amounts right now I just don't see how you can go against what Mets have been saying for the past month.. we are in a crappy gradient pattern that might produce for northern sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 When you look at the total precip on the 12z gfs in the midatlantic, that is quite a bit of qpf associated with this storm. It has nearly 2"+ of rain on the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks pretty light in your area You're on the NW fringe per the NAM, while interior SEMA gets smoked. A mere joke. snowNH gets the shaft We all do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Probably a good idea to wait for the rest of the guidance. Nothing terribly exciting or convincing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 We are do. Did you mean doodoo or due? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Did you mean doodoo or due? LOL--I guess either would work. I had edited to say "we all do" (get the shaft). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 No way, trend has been NW and warmer from here on out all year.. I'm way more worried about precip type than qpf amounts right now I just don't see how you can go against what Mets have been saying for the past month.. we are in a crappy gradient pattern that might produce for northern sections LOL...calm down. it was a joke. i wouldn't be overly excited if i were anywhere in SNE right now. i guess you can run to the bank with the NAM if you want...but personally...i'd look for something more tame. i could see a narrow stripe of accumulating snow on the NW fringe of this precip shield if it gets far enough NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I didn't see your post on that..I blurted out a few reasons late last night why I was mildly interested in it, but I think the thoughts may have been similar. Lol, just the same this GFS run blows in deferrence to the thing. NAM's initial through hours ...circa 57 and change, does line up well with that Dec '05er but....eh, not liking the fact that the PV wants to flex at precisely the wrong time. In '05, again ...stream separation was our friend. Here, the PV pushes SE a little and that's like trying to turn over in your sleep with an elephant on your back. We'll see... OT: man, the 00z teleconnector spread is a mess! Good luck folks. Yuck with a capital Y. Not so much because of snow or no snow/winter...just readibility in its self isn't really there. Every source is out of phase with the other sources, and the operational runs disagree with their own camps pretty much across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 well at least models are now showing a colder pattern. with just brief warm up here and there. something is bound to pop up for snowlovers. with being so close to the warm and cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol... 12z GEM is coming in a good amount west (by 200 miles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 A mere joke. We all do. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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