CT Rain Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Will the GFS score a rare win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Euro ensemble mean definitely northwest of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18z NAM says rain for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Just going with rain here... I think the most likely scenario is for this thing to cut over SNE and bring some snow to the mountains up north. I'm glad for them!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Think this has a chance to cut west of the apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Just going with rain here... I think the most likely scenario is for this thing to cut over SNE and bring some snow to the mountains up north. I'm glad for them!! I agree, rain....but I think GC and N ORH co could snow. I think we have an outside shot until the EURO ens cave, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 I agree, rain....but I think GC and N ORH co could snow. I think we have an outside shot until the EURO ens cave, though. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Agree Still rain, then cold rain, with a sloppiy coating at the end Then we freeze solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Still rain, then cold rain, with a sloppiy coating at the end Then we freeze solid Absolute pistol-in-mouth evoking scenario that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Absolute pistol-in-mouth evoking scenario that is. Lol. Beats tracking 57F and partly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Lol. Beats tracking 57F and partly cloudy Hey, if you get your rocks off to black ice, cool....whatever pitches your tent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Hey, if you get your rocks off to black ice, cool....whatever pitches your tent. Heavy heavy spinouts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Well, I hope the positive trends continue instead of ending up with some slop fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Great, Ryan started the thread. We all know how this one is going to turnout. Snow.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Just going with rain here... I think the most likely scenario is for this thing to cut over SNE and bring some snow to the mountains up north. I'm glad for them!! You really think that? I don't know, I have a hard time seeing this come that far NW. For operations at the mountain I'm going with partly cloudy during that time period, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 You really think that? I don't know, I have a hard time seeing this come that far NW. For operations at the mountain I'm going with partly cloudy during that time period, haha. It's possible. I don't think the thing really phases and amplifies much... but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the track of this thing adjust some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 timing of reinforcing arctic front will be key...NAM holds it off a day or so and lets the low ride up further west....GFS brings the front and the storm to NE at about the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18z GFS will be further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 This should be a bit SE of 12z barring something drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 SE of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 It's possible. I don't think the thing really phases and amplifies much... but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the track of this thing adjust some. Yeah I see what you mean... not a big bomb but more of a quick moving wave that tracks inland. The usual +NAO type deal. Either way it looks like a 6-9 hour quick hit with a very large rain area and very small wintery precip area on NW fringe. Even best case model runs for anyone do not show a lot of wintery precip with this low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Yeah I see what you mean... not a big bomb but more of a quick moving wave that tracks inland. The usual +NAO type deal. Either way it looks like a 6-9 hour quick hit with a very large rain area and very small wintery precip area on NW fringe. Even best case model runs for anyone do not show a lot of wintery precip with this low. Yeah exactly. The thing is going to eject NE and it is going to be steered based on how deep and where exactly the big midwest trough sets up. So there's not much wiggle room like when you see a phasing or strongly digging trough over the Great Lakes wrapping up a bomb. Who knows the midwest/great lakes trough could come in even flatter and push the whole thing out to sea. Best case scenario for you guys is to track the vort max right over SNE and get some nice precip back up into NNE. Not likely but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 SNE scrape at 102hr. Maybe near advisory level snows for ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Will FTW. 18z is SE a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Will FTW. 18z is SE a lot. Smoking cirrus here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 SE is good...I want either snow or a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Smoking cirrus here GFS is in a perfect spot for us. Typical SE bias begins right now. As I learned from Irene. The Euro Ensembles west of the Euro OP is always a red flag for this thing to come NW. Also its pretty good to see the NAM amped up. Its hard to go against the GFS ensembles and the Euro Ensembles showing a pretty decent event for NE. First time since Snow-tober that I'm kind of excited for the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 SE is good...I want either snow or a whiff. Actually you just don't want WNE/NNE getting anymore snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Nice advisory level snowfall for I-95 on 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Nice advisory level snowfall for I-95 on 18z GFS. You guys must be pretty stoked about the long range temps... finally looks like some sustained cold. Dry too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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