ChescoWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 For those that don't subscribe but have interest JB sees the third wave coming further north and impacting the areas especially N and W of I95 during the wed/thurs timeframe. Even had a map on his video this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 shows the 12z GFS maps of snowfall prediction and says that the solution lies somewhere in between... http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 thanks wxman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I hope I'm in Florida.... Seriously though, our forecast here IS getting a bit more wintry during the mid-week timeframe. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.Thursday: A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 JB continues to hold to his orginal forecast as above states this AM. "Here is the GFS which is probably what will be loaded into the point and clicks in many places and would fit with the idea that most mid and north atlantic snow events are shoved south by this model, before they have to trend north. Please keep in mind I have had one idea here on this last wave, and that I am showing you THE MODELS THAT AGREE WITH ME as they rotate around what I think will be the solution. I am not waffling, the models are and while there is a danger I will be wrong, I am holding my ground and showing you which is best I said to you, UNTIL THIS GETS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE MODELS WILL NOT HANDLE IT. There is no trend per se, just the model trying to throw darts at the dart board. My reasons are simple Positive nao and the knowledge that in global models, small pockets of cold like this are often underdone until they are out of the southern rockies which wont be till tomorrow anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I agree with his low track, I just don't know where he is getting cold air for the system to go to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I agree with his low track, I just don't know where he is getting cold air for the system to go to snow the low level cold is going to have a hard time pushing into the coastal plain. Their is really no mechanism to drive the cold air into it untill the storm passes, its more of an ooze in before hand. Sill favor the areas that got nailed in the oct storm has the best shot again...elev will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 the low level cold is going to have a hard time pushing into the coastal plain. Their is really no mechanism to drive the cold air into it untill the storm passes, its more of an ooze in before hand. Sill favor the areas that got nailed in the oct storm has the best shot again...elev will help Agree, I briefed LNS-ABE today as the area with the best shot of accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 . Sill favor the areas that got nailed in the oct storm has the best shot again...elev will help i'll take another 7" hit at least this time no leaves on trees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i'll take another 7" hit at least this time no leaves on trees! yea ill be at my gfs in qtown, so ill see it if it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Tom, He has said it will be similar spots to last time...but not as much..He did nail the last storm pretty far in advance -so maybe this is the year JB is on his game. the low level cold is going to have a hard time pushing into the coastal plain. Their is really no mechanism to drive the cold air into it untill the storm passes, its more of an ooze in before hand. Sill favor the areas that got nailed in the oct storm has the best shot again...elev will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Tom, He has said it will be similar spots to last time...but not as much..He did nail the last storm pretty far in advance -so maybe this is the year JB is on his game. WxSim run yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Tom, He has said it will be similar spots to last time...but not as much..He did nail the last storm pretty far in advance -so maybe this is the year JB is on his game. There will be a rogue 3-4" amount somewhere in this stripe and he'll claim verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I do have to say I'm starting to get intrigued by this, here by Lancaster, we could be just in the right spot for some more white stuff. :snowman: Who would have though considering the pattern, I could be looking at some more snowfall before even winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Throw six more inches my way would be fine.Time to test my new snow blower. The six inches will smash ABE's record for total yearly precip and what a way to do it. Whenever a LP is ejected out of New Mexico, watch out TN Valley and eastern PA for snow and or severe weather. If the LP systems keep coming out of the SW, I see ice storms being an issue for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 JBs latest has NW Chesco near 3" line which expands to near 12" well NW of I95. I tried to post his map here but I am having trouble figuring how to post a pic after attaching. Looks like ABE to RDG and NW of there is the target zone for heaviest snows with his forecast. He has cities changing over but similar to 10/29 storm very little accumulation. My Wxsim has just a little mixing toward end of storm...but it is basically the GFS at this range ( or as JB called the GFS this morning the JV) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 JB continues to hold to his orginal forecast as above states this AM. "Here is the GFS which is probably what will be loaded into the point and clicks in many places and would fit with the idea that most mid and north atlantic snow events are shoved south by this model, before they have to trend north. Please keep in mind I have had one idea here on this last wave, and that I am showing you THE MODELS THAT AGREE WITH ME as they rotate around what I think will be the solution. I am not waffling, the models are and while there is a danger I will be wrong, I am holding my ground and showing you which is best I said to you, UNTIL THIS GETS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE MODELS WILL NOT HANDLE IT. There is no trend per se, just the model trying to throw darts at the dart board. My reasons are simple Positive nao and the knowledge that in global models, small pockets of cold like this are often underdone until they are out of the southern rockies which wont be till tomorrow anyway I'm not sure if this is a rip on the NWS or not. *OUR* point and click certainly doesn't "load" the GFS by default. AccuWeather's did, but I've been gone several years so it may not do so any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Here is Joe, FWIW. I disagree with this forecast strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 am19psu.....what is yours?? While you may disagree, he (like his son Garrett) are putting something out for us to use/review. I am no met, but I am also not one to bash anothers efforts right or wrong, as they put something more than I did out there. Not saying you are, but some are "trigger happy" when he puts things out and like with the October call, he went on a limb far earlier than most. I applaud his efforts, right our wrong. It may be slightly aggressive, but yet some areas within his forecast, could see accums close to what he is thinking. In looking at his map, I would not assume everyone within that area gets the levels he suggests. JMO"s Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 am19psu.....what is yours?? While you may disagree, he (like his son Garrett) are putting something out for us to use/review. I am no met, but I am also not one to bash anothers efforts right or wrong, as they put something more than I did out there. Not saying you are, but some are "trigger happy" when he puts things out and like with the October call, he went on a limb far earlier than most. I applaud his efforts, right our wrong. It may be slightly aggressive, but yet some areas within his forecast, could see accums close to what he is thinking. In looking at his map, I would not assume everyone within that area gets the levels he suggests. JMO"s Nut I've been too busy at work today (working on the 2012 hurricane forecast of all things) to make a map, but I think I've made my forecast pretty well known. I much more bearish than Bastardi on amounts. His low track is fine, but I'd cut his amounts by roughly 1/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 am19psu.....what is yours?? While you may disagree, he (like his son Garrett) are putting something out for us to use/review. I am no met, but I am also not one to bash anothers efforts right or wrong, as they put something more than I did out there. Not saying you are, but some are "trigger happy" when he puts things out and like with the October call, he went on a limb far earlier than most. I applaud his efforts, right our wrong. It may be slightly aggressive, but yet some areas within his forecast, could see accums close to what he is thinking. In looking at his map, I would not assume everyone within that area gets the levels he suggests. JMO"s Nut thanks, Garrett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 thanks, Garrett I'd be glad to be his kid as I'd learn lots....but not quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 am19psu.....what is yours?? While you may disagree, he (like his son Garrett) are putting something out for us to use/review. I am no met, but I am also not one to bash anothers efforts right or wrong, as they put something more than I did out there. Not saying you are, but some are "trigger happy" when he puts things out and like with the October call, he went on a limb far earlier than most. I applaud his efforts, right our wrong. It may be slightly aggressive, but yet some areas within his forecast, could see accums close to what he is thinking. In looking at his map, I would not assume everyone within that area gets the levels he suggests. JMO"s Nut I think am19psu has indicated how he disagrees with that snow map. Not all mets here are required to make their own maps to refute others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'd be glad to be his kid as I'd learn lots....but not quite. learn how to hype is about all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Here is Joe, FWIW. I disagree with this forecast strongly. Replace 3 with 1, 6 with 3, and 12 with 6, and then JB might look semi-reasonable, if still a bit bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thanks Pixie Do you agree or disagree with JB's map? Do you have any value to add here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Replace 3 with 1, 6 with 2, and 12 with 4, and then JB might look semi-reasonable, if still a bit bullish. Fixed it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Fixed it for you. That's even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Do you agree or disagree with JB's map? Do you any value to add here? What brings you to our subforum anyway, Fozziebear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 What brings you to our subforum anyway, Fozziebear? Same with you, do you have anything to add besides snarky name-calling or whining? If not, then it won't be long before you're 5-posted again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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