WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wow. I kinda like the GFS alot. More often than not the gfs doesn't push precip (and the heaviest band of precip) far enough north and west with this type of setup. There's no big feature to the n and w to push it south. I'm becoming a believer. The usual line from leesburg through westminster should start getting excited a little. I'm still a doubter for the line from dca-bwi. 0-2" maybe. Hope I'm wrong. My thinking also. Where is the GFS usually positioned 72 hours out vs. what actually happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wow. I kinda like the GFS alot. More often than not the gfs doesn't push precip (and the heaviest band of precip) far enough north and west with this type of setup. There's no big feature to the n and w to push it south. I'm becoming a believer. The usual line from leesburg through westminster should start getting excited a little. I'm still a doubter for the line from dca-bwi. 0-2" maybe. Hope I'm wrong. The surface low looks to be in a perfect location, and the H5, while a little wimpy, is in a good spot, too. There's just not enough cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 My thinking also. Where is the GFS usually positioned 72 hours out vs. what actually happens? Often I think it under-does the WNW-ward expansion of the precip but can also be too warm. I'm confused at what the GFS does with the low after hour 66 but that could be a weenie delusion on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The surface low looks to be in a perfect location, and the H5, while a little wimpy, is in a good spot, too. There's just not enough cold air to work with. I would think that a less robust vort is what we want. Too wrapped up pumps in more warmer air to override the already marginal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Somebody should start a weenie map thread for the storm....I'm sure Ian would love that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I would think that a less robust vort is what we want. Too wrapped up pumps in more warmer air to override the already marginal cold. if it takes a good track -- like the gfs has -- we probably want it stronger in most cases i'd think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The surface low looks to be in a perfect location, and the H5, while a little wimpy, is in a good spot, too. There's just not enough cold air to work with. H5 is a bit wimpy. If it could just amp up a little the dynamics could "possibly" overcome the questionable temps. The NAM is probably the more important model now. It's pretty cool to move into Dec with an overall really crappy pattern and STILL have something quite interesting to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I would think that a less robust vort is what we want. Too wrapped up pumps in more warmer air to override the already marginal cold. otoh, a bombing Low would do the trick wrt the lack of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 looks like weenies think alike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Here's another one for Ian....the snow sure would look pretty on my Christmas lights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 if it takes a good track -- like the gfs has -- we probably want it stronger in most cases i'd think Do you make anything of the low skipping ENE at 72hrs in, after the jump to the coast at hr66? Just in looking at where the most concentrated convective energy is relative to the center progged at 72hrs in, but I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 this is honestly the most important storm of my life. This reminds me of the january 2002 snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Here's another one for Ian....the snow sure would look pretty on my Christmas lights i've been on the snow wagon for this one.. why the trollz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 if it takes a good track -- like the gfs has -- we probably want it stronger in most cases i'd think otoh, a bombing Low would do the trick wrt the lack of cold air I can see that but like you say, Ian, track needs to be right. i guess my fear is too strong and it goes neg and starts a W move in track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Here's another one for Ian....the snow sure would look pretty on my Christmas lights I do need a new updated Xmas snow Xmas lights pic of my house after the new door and painted shutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i've been on the snow wagon for this one.. why the trollz? Not trolling...just trying to make you laugh...I don't take things too seriously much anymore...I hope it snows some...peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Not trolling...just trying to make you laugh...I don't take things too seriously much anymore...I hope it snows some...peace. i hope it rains -- a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Do you make anything of the low skipping ENE at 72hrs in, after the jump to the coast at hr66? Just in looking at where the most concentrated convective energy is relative to the center progged at 72hrs in, but I don't know. not particularly, tho im not sure i see what you're talking about. it's one run anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 this is honestly the most important storm of my life. This reminds me of the january 2002 snowstorm it's times like these I wish I could be someone else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lets take the OT stuff to the banter thread. i know it's been dead lately so we have not been to strict on it. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/28325-2011-winter-banter-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I would guess some of this falls as snow on the GGEM, so fairly consistent with NAM and GFS http://www.weatherof...ast/478_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Does the baroclonic zone along the coast help? IIRC, early season storms when the dif between ocean temps and air temps is pretty big, storms tend to move towards the baroclonic zone before heading north. If this is the case, I'm not worried about the energy @ 500 cutting nw. The GFS solution is probably right as far as track goes IMO either way. Call me out if I'm talking out of my u know what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I would guess some of this falls as snow on the GGEM, so fairly consistent with NAM and GFS http://www.weatherof...ast/478_100.gif I would agree, probably along the line of the GFS, but prob a bit less if I am reading that right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS ENS are well NW of OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12/5/09 was just as elevation dependent as Oct but climo helped those in lower elevs. IIRC parts of DC that were above 200' saw a little accum while those below(me) got barely a trace. It seemed that the cutoff for the Oct storm was about 400' elev. Out here it was about 750 feet. The rain/snow line was easily visible. I agree this is going to be another elevation dependent storm. MBY did pretty well with the Oct storm. Looks like we might have another shot this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS ENS are well NW of OP. Verbatim the GFS and ensembles seem to be a brief end as snow for DC, but areas nw look a little better. FWIW anyways, which might not be much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS ENS are well NW of OP. Good. Think that the EC and next run of the GFS will be a little further that way. Unless we have the same luck we had last DEC. But that was totally different setup. I don't see how this ends up suppressed unless it is just weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS ENS are well NW of OP. I have never seen the GFS ENS SW of the OP. It's not worth much in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think being west with elevation is probably a good thing....most of us will probably be disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Good. Think that the EC and next run of the GFS will be a little further that way. Unless we have the same luck we had last DEC. But that was totally different setup. I don't see how this ends up suppressed unless it is just weak. Yeah. There is nothing to suppress it. If anything I think it comes N/W a little more. Really is a crap setup though. Not a HP to the north to be found. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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