stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Lol, if it weren't for Forky texted me, I had no clue what was going on. Was in Chicago this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Lol, if it weren't for Forky texted me, I had no clue what was going on. Was in Chicago this weekend Chicago had a parade this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Mason-Dixon counties like: Carroll and Frederick might end up being the sweet spot...for a light snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Mason-Dixon counties like: Carroll and Frederick might end up being the sweet spot...for a light snowfall. you will quickly learn that your location will be the sweet spot 90% of the time with any snow event your elevation of 750'-850' will make up for a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Chicago had a parade this weekend? Yes, Black guys who love weather parade. Odd how many people came out to watch me march down the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 He was right with the Oct 29th storm, but i highy doubt anyone in the metro area will be getting 6 inches. 3 inches would be a stretch. Only if you were in the higher total area... his rain/snow line in the Mid-Atlantic was way too far south (which is what tends to happen with his forecasts): https://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/129962320687403008/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z run of GFS thru 51 hrs is not as cold as 6z run we'll see the implications shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 you will quickly learn that your location will be the sweet spot 90% of the time with any snow event your elevation of 750'-850' will make up for a lot Yup. When it comes to winter climo, Westminster is much more like Harrisburg and York than Baltimore and DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yes, Black guys who love weather parade. Odd how many people came out to watch me march down the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 thru 57 hrs, GFS looks to have a humg dinger going, at least strength wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Judging by the way these models are going, maybe I should have stayed blissfully ignorant about this thread. But you gotta love the NAM tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Kapow on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Kapow on 12z Great analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 hr 66 colder faster than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 hr 66 colder faster than 6z wouldn't have known that looking at 57 hrs since the stronger usually means warmer southern vort is further south however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 thru 57 hrs, GFS looks to have a humg dinger going, at least strength wise Well, it's certainly closer to the NAM than I thought. NOt sure that weak wave would produce so much QPF? (Overall, not just us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Storm looks to occur overnight at well which could help a lot if it were to happen! Much colder and wetter this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Kapow on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 it's definitely further south than NAM, but that's not a bad thing for the GFS at this range (at least for those of us in DCA/BWI area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Kapow on 12z At this point I prefer to be West of the moisture....of course at game time I may want it to come a bit closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 24hrs qpf ending 12Z Thursday (72hrs) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F05%2F2011+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=072&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12Z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS is warm I doubt if very much of that qpf falls as snow verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 24hrs qpf ending 12Z Thursday (72hrs) http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L It's very wet for total precip all the way through 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 24hrs qpf ending 12Z Thursday (72hrs) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F05%2F2011+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=072&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Good run in my opinion lotsa moisture, temps decent, room for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Almost identical changeover time in DC as the NAM, sometime in the deep overnight hours, and then the precip is basically done by sun-up. One thing we can say for certain - what a dreary week this is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Heh I thought the low center near Hatteras would take over at hour 66 as opposed to the energy jump, still an inch or two for most on the clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wow. I kinda like the GFS alot. More often than not the gfs doesn't push precip (and the heaviest band of precip) far enough north and west with this type of setup. There's no big feature to the n and w to push it south. I'm becoming a believer. The usual line from leesburg through westminster should start getting excited a little. I'm still a doubter for the line from dca-bwi. 0-2" maybe. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's a damn shame we can't buy a -nao. Looks like a series of vorts diving out of canada after thursday's even moves out. There's nothing to push them south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 At this point I prefer to be West of the moisture....of course at game time I may want it to come a bit closer fringed baby...like Dave Johnsons hairline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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