mappy Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 06z NAM Clownmaps enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Come on now...in October the reason it wasn't going to snow was climo and it was October and we needed a perfect track/scenario...now it's because it's because it's early December and the pattern is horrific and we need that perfect track again and.....well.....that whole climo thing......right? except it's going to snow.. especially out that a way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 except it's going to snow.. especially out that a way I'm not sure if it will or won't...I do know though if it does I will enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z NAM trending in line with the 6z, faster with the shortwave, trough less positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 And by the way..as I have said for years on here and at Eastern...I love snow no matter how much or if it sticks or not...I just love seeing it fall from the sky so if that is all that happens this week...I will love it. I completely agree in December or anytime before New Years actually...any snow I consider a bonus and nice, especially during holiday time. But for some reason once into January its go big or go home for me. I lose interest in 1" type events once past the holidays. Not sure why. In December any snow is nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 except it's going to snow.. especially out that a way you really think this thing has a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I completely agree in December or anytime before New Years actually...any snow I consider a bonus and nice, especially during holiday time. But for some reason once into January its go big or go home for me. I lose interest in 1" type events once past the holidays. Not sure why. In December any snow is nice though. I love a big event as well...trust me...just check out how many posts I usually have in and obs thread during...but I have always gotten geeked up by snow falling...hope to see some this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I agree the pattern is horrible and any storm is a long shot, but if we were looking for a snow threat in this type of cruddy nina type pattern this is the kind of storm we want. When we have gotten snows in these type patterns in the past it usually is with a stalled frontal type system where something develops on the tail end. Its about our only shot in this kind of crap pattern. Still needs perfect timing and position of the synoptic setup. If the front is too fast its OTS if its too slow its not cold enough. If it doesnt amp enough its a flat wave, if its too amped its a cutter. Both the frontal position and the amplification have to be perfect so its a long shot but at least its a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 06z NAM Clownmaps enjoy Not to weenie out even more, but there's more snow after 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 i hope this storm makes everyone happy....i hope me and Leesburg get snow and Ian gets no snow since he hates snow and loves warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM might shear it ots this run, 00z to 6z the shortwave was slightly faster and it made a world of difference, 12z the shortwave is twice the jump from 6z in speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i hope this storm makes everyone happy....i hope me and Leesburg get snow and Ian gets no snow since he hates snow and loves warm I am sure Ian would love 36 degree rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM might shear it ots this run, 00z to 6z the shortwave was slightly faster and it made a world of difference, 12z the shortwave is twice the jump from 6z in speed. I wouldn't worry about each run of any model at this time range. In this type of setup the models are going to bounce around a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Is this a Wednesday night-Thursday storm now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Actually not a bad run, looks colder towards the end at 850 relative to the low's position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks good. In fact, the NAM is a look close to the EC, at least what I can see of the EC. Our chances seem to be improving each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nam looks better than ever. Comes in faster though, gives us the nighttime advantage so we don't have to deal with the sizzling dec sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 850s looks good on the NAM but the boundary layer is very warm. Would be good for PSUHoffman and folks well NW of the 95 corridor, but would be a chilly rain for the 95 folks unfortunately. Not saying it's right or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 very similar to October event..starts off as Rain and turns into heavy snow. Would be awfully funny if December ends up way above average in the snow category LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Anyone have some images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 850s looks good on the NAM but the boundary layer is very warm. Would be good for PSUHoffman and folks well NW of the 95 corridor, but would be a chilly rain for the 95 folks unfortunately. Not saying it's right or not. Elevation will certainly have a big role in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Anyone have some images? Here ya go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 very strong Vort....could see some really heavy snow if this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 very similar to October event..starts off as Rain and turns into heavy snow. Would be awfully funny if December ends up way above average in the snow category LOL I'm sure we have had plenty of +2 or +4 months that had snow during the month...I get all of the doom and gloom about the pattern but like I mentioned...this seems more normal to me for us getting snow...suck pattern then bang some snow then back to suck pattern. 09-10...pffft...anomaly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Here ya go: lol..thats it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks like the NAM switches over the DC metro around 2 or 3am on Thursday, but the precip is shut off by 5 or 6am. Enough time for an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 850s looks good on the NAM but the boundary layer is very warm. Would be good for PSUHoffman and folks well NW of the 95 corridor, but would be a chilly rain for the 95 folks unfortunately. Not saying it's right or not. lol..thats it? Read above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol..thats it? LOL. The NAM is still 36 hours away from its wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol..thats it? I get 3-4"......I'll definitely take it. Elevation will really matter this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol..thats it? goober...don't laugh at 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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