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FAILDC#


Ji

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jonjon, you need to start a snow picture thread. I'm sure we'd all love to see them as the season progresses.

As for those in the metro areas....LOL at anyone that expected accumulation.

Ended up with 8.8" here in Davis. Report of 10.1" up on the ridge at Canaan Heights.

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Update from Winchester............NADA. tongue.png

I knew last night when we finally went to snow, and then the temp went up about a degree, and then I looked at that radar, that we had no shot.

However, it was highly temp dependant. Shave a couple of degrees off a couple hours earlier, and we would have had a nice snow. All the hills and mountains around Winchester are snow covered.

Better luck next time I guess.

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Woke up at 10pm to check obs... obvious that it wasn't going to accumulate based on radar, so I went back to bed.

Co-workers report that we got a wintry mix at the office, which means I likely did, too. It just didn't want to change over, and the precip. ended several hours earlier than everything was indicating up until the event.

Verification will be posted this afternoon... it's gonna hurt along the coastal plain :(

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There were some things to take away from this storm. This is the second storm this year that the NAM has been too cold and snowy on the west side of the storm. This case was especially bad as it eventually forecast the 850 low to go to the northwest of DCA but still spit out over 0.30" liquid equivalent as snow. In reality when the 850 low goes north you have a hard time getting into the good deformation zone unless you have a rapidly deepening low with a closed 500h circulation that at one time tracked to your south.

The models trended slowly north with time, That's always a risk and with the lack of any blocking to the north we may see that again. The GFS also was a little too aggressive with the snow but was better.

Surface temps do matter and the SREF plume diagrams pretty much indicated there was little or no potential for accumulating snow.

In a bad pattern, things have to be perfect. The storm track was not for this storm. It was west of where you'd want it even if we had started out with cold air.

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One of the things that reading these boards has taught me over the last 5 years or so is to understand what "typically" happens with a particular setup vs taking models verbatim. I'm thankful for the knowledge these boards have given me.

Once the 850 took a more crappy track and the ull was going to weaken as it passed pretty much told the story. I pretty much knew it wasn't going to snow well in advance so it didn't bug me at all when it didn't. I would have thought differently 5 years ago.

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To be fair to mitch, though, the temps in Pittsburgh and Buffalo came in 5-8 degrees cooler than progged. It's understandable that he was optimistic.

laugh.png

He actually wasn't very optimistic, Mapgirl was just more pessimistic. In DC in a bad pattern, she'll win 80 percent of the time, maybe more.

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Mitchnick was thinking he might be ready to be my CWG replacement when I'm unavailable. Your awesome calls moved you ahead of him.

I wouldn't want to take your job, I'll stick to making maps when needed

He actually wasn't very optimistic, Mapgirl was just more pessimistic. In DC in a bad pattern, she'll win 80 percent of the time, maybe more.

Or realistic ;)

I really did want snow, but just didn't really think it would happen.

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One of the things that reading these boards has taught me over the last 5 years or so is to understand what "typically" happens with a particular setup vs taking models verbatim. I'm thankful for the knowledge these boards have given me.

Once the 850 took a more crappy track and the ull was going to weaken as it passed pretty much told the story. I pretty much knew it wasn't going to snow well in advance so it didn't bug me at all when it didn't. I would have thought differently 5 years ago.

Agree 100% Bob. Hard to get "upset" when you understand WHY it had no chance of panning out. Great stuff in here everyone. Bring on January!

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There were some things to take away from this storm. This is the second storm this year that the NAM has been too cold and snowy on the west side of the storm. This case was especially bad as it eventually forecast the 850 low to go to the northwest of DCA but still spit out over 0.30" liquid equivalent as snow. In reality when the 850 low goes north you have a hard time getting into the good deformation zone unless you have a rapidly deepening low with a closed 500h circulation that at one time tracked to your south.

The models trended slowly north with time, That's always a risk and with the lack of any blocking to the north we may see that again. The GFS also was a little too aggressive with the snow but was better.

Surface temps do matter and the SREF plume diagrams pretty much indicated there was little or no potential for accumulating snow.

In a bad pattern, things have to be perfect. The storm track was not for this storm. It was west of where you'd want it even if we had started out with cold air.

I didn't quite take that much away from it Wes

more like, the MA sux if you like snow and we usually need a miracle

no miracle this time, hence no snow

anyway, one needs to simply pull oneself off the mat and ask, what's the next potential system on the horizon?

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Update from Winchester............NADA. tongue.png

I knew last night when we finally went to snow, and then the temp went up about a degree, and then I looked at that radar, that we had no shot.

However, it was highly temp dependant. Shave a couple of degrees off a couple hours earlier, and we would have had a nice snow. All the hills and mountains around Winchester are snow covered.

Better luck next time I guess.

On Trafficland the camera at Star Tannery and the one between Berryville and Purcelleville have snow on the ground.

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On Trafficland the camera at Star Tannery and the one between Berryville and Purcelleville have snow on the ground.

Yep. Highly elevation, therefore, temp dependent. Looking at the traffic cams in PA, Altoona looks to have received nothing, while just about 20 miles west, and up in elevation, has a lot of snow.

We were about 2-5 degrees away from having a nice snow.

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capitalclimate says wettest day nov-mar now

Pretty remarkable, and the final total of 3.10 inches actually makes yesterday the wettest day for the 6-month period October 26th to April 25th. (October 25th, 1872 recorded 3.12 inches, and April 26th, 1889 recorded 3.21 inches.)

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Snowshoe may have gotten decent snow because of its elevation, but look at the valley

a coating at best

That's Canaan Valley... and that's not a coating. It's at least 4 inches as nearby towns at lower elevation got at least that much. The reason it looks patchy is because that's some tall grass.

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That's Canaan Valley... and that's not a coating. It's at least 4 inches as nearby towns at lower elevation got at least that much. The reason it looks patchy is because that's some tall grass.

yep, I fooked up

that's the Dolly Sods pic

but you certain about the 4"?

where did you get your reports?

P.S.: if it was, it must have melted from the sun, temps and high water content

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