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FAILDC#


Ji

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It all depends how that H5 shortwave spits apart over the plains.

Root for more energy to shear out to the Northeast and less energy to get left behind at the base of the troff.

In other words, the stronger the ULL the more warm air it pumps up.

Or not, 00z gfs keeps all precip south of us. Looks like it's a delicate balance.

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Perfect. Unless it stays that way.

If I have to depend upon a shift one way or another, I'll take hoping for a north/west/stronger trend any day vs. having to hope for a more suppressed look.

BTW, the GFS has had some type of storm for this time period for over 100 hours now. First it was a wave riding the cold front, now it's gone to this. Key point being that about every 24 to 36 hours it has almost completely lost the storm/wave. I won't be shocked to see it right back at 6z, especially with the NAM looking like it does. If not, so what.

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Perfect. Unless it stays that way.

If I have to depend upon a shift one way or another, I'll take hoping for a north/west/stronger trend any day vs. having to hope for a more suppressed look.

now all we need is for the Euro to come north and then we will be in balance with GFS suppressed and Euro amped unlike last night and today

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Actually the snow doesn't even stick on that run.

06z is better for us snow weenies than the 0z. Flakes are flakes. The fact that both the euro and GFS are fighting itself each model run still shows just how we need a perfect outcome to get something in this pattern.

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If expectations are reasonable...meaning hoping to see some flakes in the air...I think that is possible this week. If your expectations are what the 6z nam is showing....good luck with that...maybe though

NAM is a snow changing to snow event for Leesburg...will look nice with your lights

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NAM is a snow changing to snow event for Leesburg...will look nice with your lights

Yeah...I just remember the NAM showing that paste bomb for us for several runs in October...1.2" and a lot of sleet later I was not so confident in the NAM...lol..it's pretty to look at for sure..as you said though..at least it's something to track for now even if it does end up all rain.

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Except that it's not October and euro is somewhat similar

Come on now...in October the reason it wasn't going to snow was climo and it was October and we needed a perfect track/scenario...now it's because it's because it's early December and the pattern is horrific and we need that perfect track again and.....well.....that whole climo thing......right?

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And by the way..as I have said for years on here and at Eastern...I love snow no matter how much or if it sticks or not...I just love seeing it fall from the sky so if that is all that happens this week...I will love it.

This. As much as it stunk to hear and see all those who got some white love back in Oct. I still enjoyed the little bit of flakage i got and seeing my kids run around in it was good enough.

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Look the truth is we all want snow, and it is more than true that this pattern plain sucks. The point is sure the models may actually get us out on the pier, they can throw us back just as fast. Now I like the Gfs having a euro like scenario, which I might also add is in a good place. In addition, UKMET isn't bad and NAM currently causing weenie dreams. Regardless, this isn't October its December and now unlike then I'd buy into the mother nature snows because she wants to. I ain't buying snow here yet, but it could NW of us. Let's see what today's models say, because we're only 78hrs out and a threat is there, we can watch then give our negative reflections or something like that. Let it snow, but I ain't wishing if it's not likely.

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