mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 at 60 hrs. GFS is colder than 18z at 66 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS folds to Euro ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It all depends how that H5 shortwave spits apart over the plains. Root for more energy to shear out to the Northeast and less energy to get left behind at the base of the troff. In other words, the stronger the ULL the more warm air it pumps up. Or not, 00z gfs keeps all precip south of us. Looks like it's a delicate balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 disastah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Perfect. Unless it stays that way. If I have to depend upon a shift one way or another, I'll take hoping for a north/west/stronger trend any day vs. having to hope for a more suppressed look. BTW, the GFS has had some type of storm for this time period for over 100 hours now. First it was a wave riding the cold front, now it's gone to this. Key point being that about every 24 to 36 hours it has almost completely lost the storm/wave. I won't be shocked to see it right back at 6z, especially with the NAM looking like it does. If not, so what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Perfect. Unless it stays that way. If I have to depend upon a shift one way or another, I'll take hoping for a north/west/stronger trend any day vs. having to hope for a more suppressed look. now all we need is for the Euro to come north and then we will be in balance with GFS suppressed and Euro amped unlike last night and today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 now all we need is for the Euro to come north and then we will be in balance with GFS suppressed and Euro amped unlike last night and today done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 6z NAM is rain to snow for DC... if it played out like this--and it won't--it would likely be the kind of storm where DCA gets 2-4" while IAD gets 6-10". hr 78 hr 81 hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 6z GFS is also a light snow event, 1-3 or 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 6z GFS is also a light snow event, 1-3 or 2-4". Actually the snow doesn't even stick on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro has alot of qpf..some being snow. Similar to October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If only the 6z nam mattered! Eye candy, but it is the nam, it is out of its range, it is pointless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Actually the snow doesn't even stick on that run. 06z is better for us snow weenies than the 0z. Flakes are flakes. The fact that both the euro and GFS are fighting itself each model run still shows just how we need a perfect outcome to get something in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Oh and just for those seaching for other model support, the CRAS is a cutter @84. It knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If only the 6z nam mattered! Eye candy, but it is the nam, it is out of its range, it is pointless! out of its range, yeah but it's close enough to the GFS and Euro that it is just as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Let's see. GFS takes a major step back toward its 18z position, EC takes what looks to me to be a huge step in the right direction, and the NAM, well, let's just call it the perfect scenario for now. Miss anything? Thoughts anyone. We have a chance with this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If expectations are reasonable...meaning hoping to see some flakes in the air...I think that is possible this week. If your expectations are what the 6z nam is showing....good luck with that...maybe though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 If expectations are reasonable...meaning hoping to see some flakes in the air...I think that is possible this week. If your expectations are what the 6z nam is showing....good luck with that...maybe though NAM is a snow changing to snow event for Leesburg...will look nice with your lights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If expectations are reasonable...meaning hoping to see some flakes in the air...I think that is possible this week. If your expectations are what the 6z nam is showing....good luck with that...maybe though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The 6z NAM is as much of a joke as the NAM runs in October that gave us a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM is a snow changing to snow event for Leesburg...will look nice with your lights Yeah...I just remember the NAM showing that paste bomb for us for several runs in October...1.2" and a lot of sleet later I was not so confident in the NAM...lol..it's pretty to look at for sure..as you said though..at least it's something to track for now even if it does end up all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 The 6z NAM is as much of a joke as the NAM runs in October that gave us a foot of snow. Except that it's not October and euro is somewhat similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Except that it's not October and euro is somewhat similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Except that it's not October and euro is somewhat similar Come on now...in October the reason it wasn't going to snow was climo and it was October and we needed a perfect track/scenario...now it's because it's because it's early December and the pattern is horrific and we need that perfect track again and.....well.....that whole climo thing......right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 And by the way..as I have said for years on here and at Eastern...I love snow no matter how much or if it sticks or not...I just love seeing it fall from the sky so if that is all that happens this week...I will love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM actually has a warm layer above 850 in my neck of the woods, so it's not all snow EDIT: but mostly snow for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 And by the way..as I have said for years on here and at Eastern...I love snow no matter how much or if it sticks or not...I just love seeing it fall from the sky so if that is all that happens this week...I will love it. This. As much as it stunk to hear and see all those who got some white love back in Oct. I still enjoyed the little bit of flakage i got and seeing my kids run around in it was good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Look the truth is we all want snow, and it is more than true that this pattern plain sucks. The point is sure the models may actually get us out on the pier, they can throw us back just as fast. Now I like the Gfs having a euro like scenario, which I might also add is in a good place. In addition, UKMET isn't bad and NAM currently causing weenie dreams. Regardless, this isn't October its December and now unlike then I'd buy into the mother nature snows because she wants to. I ain't buying snow here yet, but it could NW of us. Let's see what today's models say, because we're only 78hrs out and a threat is there, we can watch then give our negative reflections or something like that. Let it snow, but I ain't wishing if it's not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If expectations are reasonable...meaning hoping to see some flakes in the air...I think that is possible this week. If your expectations are what the 6z nam is showing....good luck with that...maybe though Thanks, Ian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Thanks, Ian! No that's Ian from a few years ago...this years version of Ian is...I hate snow...I hope it's warm all winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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