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FAILDC#


Ji

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Daily precip record for any day in December is 2.81" on Dec 18th, 1977. DCA is at 1.92" as of 4pm. Game on.

Edit - jan/feb records are lower. So, we are in the running for the wettest wintertime day on record in DC.

0.16" added at the 5pm ob

2.08" on the day

0.73" shy of the all-time winter daily precipitation record at DCA

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44 here now...steady rain...18z NAM is 5.7" snow for JYO so using Ian's method and at least cutting that in half it appears that the NAM at least is saying 1-3" not out of the question...yes I know...so save it....just saying what the model said

i wish you luck. as i said last night i think your area perhaps had the most to lose as you had some legit snow potential but it might be hard to come to outside elevation. shoot even up MRB way i'd be getting nervous...

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Always interesting to track model performance. The 19z HRRR is a little more aggressive on cold air/snowfall, changing over Fairfax Co by 10pm. We should start seeing some gustier winds and probably a more rapid fall-off in temps in the next two hours.

Temp steadily dropping here. Dropped a degree in 5 minutes

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i wish you luck. as i said last night i think your area perhaps had the most to lose as you had some legit snow potential but it might be hard to come to outside elevation. shoot even up MRB way i'd be getting nervous...

Yeah I am realistic about any accumulations...but what that is saying to me is that it may snow pretty hard for a short period of time and if all conditions were ripe then that much could accumulate...obviously the conditions are not there for accumulations but dang the model thinks it may snow pretty darn hard for a short period of time....is it right....I don't know.

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Some of us like snow no matter how much....if it's pounding with my Christmas lights as a backdrop then I will call this thing a winner

I do as well, i was including myself as a loser. Ever since i was a little kid i watched the weather channel for hours on end until like 5 years ago when they started to become terrible. I used to count the minutes until Paul Kocin came on when there was a big storm on the way.

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The 850 wind axis should be nearing IAD now. I imagine that the wind is starting to pick up out in Front Royal and Leesburg. It'll sweep through the metro by 7pm, and it should be noticeable.

It'd be nice to see some fat flakes and good winds accumulation or not, I'm a weenie so I'm staying up for it all snowing3.gif

Anyway, temp falling down to 50.9 peak gust is 18mph.

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I know this isn't an obs thread, but the wind is blowing pretty good here, the rain is pouring and the temp just went down a degree in about 10 minutes. Down to 40.4.

I don't understand why this wouldn't be the obs thread. The other thread seems like it should be just general obs when it is boring. These individual storm threads take a natural progression from modeling discussion to real-time forecasting/obs.

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