Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 this is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Daily precip record for any day in December is 2.81" on Dec 18th, 1977. DCA is at 1.92" as of 4pm. Game on. Edit - jan/feb records are lower. So, we are in the running for the wettest wintertime day on record in DC. 0.16" added at the 5pm ob 2.08" on the day 0.73" shy of the all-time winter daily precipitation record at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 and for some reason i came to work without an umbrella today. lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 44 here now...steady rain...18z NAM is 5.7" snow for JYO so using Ian's method and at least cutting that in half it appears that the NAM at least is saying 1-3" not out of the question...yes I know...so save it....just saying what the model said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 and for some reason i came to work without an umbrella today. lolz. haha, I do that all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 44 here now...steady rain...18z NAM is 5.7" snow for JYO so using Ian's method and at least cutting that in half it appears that the NAM at least is saying 1-3" not out of the question...yes I know...so save it....just saying what the model said i wish you luck. as i said last night i think your area perhaps had the most to lose as you had some legit snow potential but it might be hard to come to outside elevation. shoot even up MRB way i'd be getting nervous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 haha, I do that all the time. my "commute" is short so i can usually time it in between rain bands but looks like i have to get wet or wait for a while. i guess ill go with door 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 49 degrees now and rainy in Dale City. Definitely a colder breeze rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Always interesting to track model performance. The 19z HRRR is a little more aggressive on cold air/snowfall, changing over Fairfax Co by 10pm. We should start seeing some gustier winds and probably a more rapid fall-off in temps in the next two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 73 people reading a thread for snow when it is going to be almost all rain. We are LOSERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Always interesting to track model performance. The 19z HRRR is a little more aggressive on cold air/snowfall, changing over Fairfax Co by 10pm. We should start seeing some gustier winds and probably a more rapid fall-off in temps in the next two hours. Temp steadily dropping here. Dropped a degree in 5 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NNW wind increasing a bit now, temp down to 51.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 i wish you luck. as i said last night i think your area perhaps had the most to lose as you had some legit snow potential but it might be hard to come to outside elevation. shoot even up MRB way i'd be getting nervous... Yeah I am realistic about any accumulations...but what that is saying to me is that it may snow pretty hard for a short period of time and if all conditions were ripe then that much could accumulate...obviously the conditions are not there for accumulations but dang the model thinks it may snow pretty darn hard for a short period of time....is it right....I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 73 people reading a thread for snow when it is going to be almost all rain. We are LOSERS. Some of us like snow no matter how much....if it's pounding with my Christmas lights as a backdrop then I will call this thing a winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NNW wind increasing a bit now, temp down to 51.7 The 850 wind axis should be nearing IAD now. I imagine that the wind is starting to pick up out in Front Royal and Leesburg. It'll sweep through the metro by 7pm, and it should be noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Some of us like snow no matter how much....if it's pounding with my Christmas lights as a backdrop then I will call this thing a winner I do as well, i was including myself as a loser. Ever since i was a little kid i watched the weather channel for hours on end until like 5 years ago when they started to become terrible. I used to count the minutes until Paul Kocin came on when there was a big storm on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Winds picked up in Harrisonburg to 20 MPH about 5pm. Temperature has dropped 2 degrees in 30 minutes. 43 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The 850 wind axis should be nearing IAD now. I imagine that the wind is starting to pick up out in Front Royal and Leesburg. It'll sweep through the metro by 7pm, and it should be noticeable. It'd be nice to see some fat flakes and good winds accumulation or not, I'm a weenie so I'm staying up for it all Anyway, temp falling down to 50.9 peak gust is 18mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I would think my area should be in the upper 30's by 6-6:15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 I would think my area should be in the upper 30's by 6-6:15 I love when you defend alpine drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Rapid Refresh for 8pm. Gusty at 10m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Rapid Refresh for 8pm. Gusty at 10m. You think it's worth it to bring in the deck furnature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 You think it's worth it to bring in the deck furnature? Not that gusty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I know this isn't an obs thread, but the wind is blowing pretty good here, the rain is pouring and the temp just went down a degree in about 10 minutes. Down to 40.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I know this isn't an obs thread, but the wind is blowing pretty good here, the rain is pouring and the temp just went down a degree in about 10 minutes. Down to 40.4. I don't understand why this wouldn't be the obs thread. The other thread seems like it should be just general obs when it is boring. These individual storm threads take a natural progression from modeling discussion to real-time forecasting/obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Temps definitely on the down-slope now. From 53 at 4:30pm to 50 at 5:45pm. Had to change battery on in-/outdoor rain gauge at 5am. It said 7.27" fell at 4:30pm, so I can throw that reading out. Real-time temps and approx 14 other variable here: http://www.mawsweather.com/4winds.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not that gusty! Ok man I trust ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 North wind gust to 29 mph - temp is down to 47. Moderate rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 You think it's worth it to bring in the deck furnature? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 And the RR throws us a bone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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