psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Forecasting snow is not one of LWX's strengths Stop giving away the headline for the next issue of "DUH" magazine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I am not terribly jazzed that it is 55 and pouring 6-8 hours out from this "event" So what you're saying is the there is no chance of a psuhoffman storm redux? I'm not thrilled with the ull at this point. I'm not sure why but I had it stuck in my head last night that it would roll though a little (or alot) angrier that it looks like at this point. I guess the only saving grace of everything move through quicker is that I'll be awake for any changeover no matter how short lived it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Noah called and said the ark is ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 About the same as 12z accum wise...so yeah pretty bad. But it does show potential for advisory level wind gusts during whatever whatever snow is falling. Great just what we need chances for power outages after the trees topple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 the NAM is flying....once the vort passes, precip cuts off...and there is really no lag time between the 850 low and the 500mb vort....i think most of us are screwed unless there are some amazing dynamics and convective snow.....I think the question is once it changes over if we get a deform band to form somewhere to the west/nw and swing through...but even then unless there are sick dynamics, it would probably be a cartopper at best...there is no precip left to work with..and while I realize dynamics could trump everything, I am not terribly jazzed that it is 55 and pouring 6-8 hours out from this "event" Our little band of snow that won't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 the models arent very good with the back edge here, but usually they at least indicate some sort of back building or wraparound.....not this time....pretty much consensus agreement....most of us change over and the back edge is in Philadelphia 2-3 hours later.....there would have to be pretty bad model failure for this to amount to much for anyone....I am not talking about elevated areas or well west and northwest of the cities....you all may change over in time for something ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Our little band of snow that won't amount to much. Yes i am in the jackpot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 18z NAM clown map.......I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Our little band of snow that won't amount to much. that band would have to be epic...I think even bright yellows will probably be >1/2 mi viz...I love snow...so even if I get 30 minutes of mod snow falling into cavernous puddles of water at 36 degrees, I will be happy for the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Fozz me and you are still under a WWA, we should be thrilled at the 7 flakes we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 these guys are going to be super bored http://dcist.com/2011/12/dc_snow_team_deploy.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Fozz me and you are still under a WWA, we should be thrilled at the 7 flakes we will see. I'll take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 these guys are going to be super bored http://dcist.com/201...team_deploy.php That is the best job ever, you get paid and have no work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Fozz me and you are still under a WWA, we should be thrilled at the 7 flakes we will see. Unless you are in Northern Baltimore... bad news.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 More clown map fun... HRRR 17z run... snowfall totals through 08z (the entire region is done accumulating by then) Actually might not be that overdone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Unless you are in Northern Baltimore... bad news.... I live in Greenspring Valley and i expect to see some mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 these guys are going to be super bored http://dcist.com/201...team_deploy.php So glad my tax dollars go to good use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 So glad my tax dollars go to good use When did you move to DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 More clown map fun... HRRR 17z run... snowfall totals through 08z (the entire region is done accumulating by then) Actually might not be that overdone... In 09/10 the HRRR was usually spot on with accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 When did you move to DC? He is so rich he pays taxes in all jurisdictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Someone said we'd be 47 degrees by 5pm. Scratch that. Temps holding tough in the 50s - warm air will be hard to scour out until about 9am Thursday when the CAA starts kicking ass under strong sunshine with dry air. I think we finally fall into the upper 40s by about 10 pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caps1980 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I live in Hanover,PA and work in Rosedale and was hoping for a good reason not to come into work tomorrow. Guess I have to now. By the looks of things I may see an inch or so IMBY overnight tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I live in Greenspring Valley and i expect to see some mangled flakes. stop by my office in Glen Burnie if you want to see some mangled people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 More clown map fun... HRRR 17z run... snowfall totals through 08z (the entire region is done accumulating by then) Actually might not be that overdone... Yay 1"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The HRRR shows Parr's Ridge and its inherent higher snow totals really nicely. Actually, it seems like it does an excellent job with elevation as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 LWX moving the snow accum north and west in the last hour maybe it's been posted already, but the change is pretty recent http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Ian i see you are licking Justin a bit now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 stop by my office in Glen Burnie if you want to see some mangled people The last time i came to Glen Burnie i had to bring my gun, i will pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Ian i see you are licking Justin a bit now . justin is a good guy.. i've met him several times and he plugged our book last year on his show. mets are just really hard headed in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Ian i see you are licking Justin a bit now . Why is Ian licking him? Is he covered in sugar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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