Scuddz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 their map is still decent tho maybe hopeful. not sure it matches with the zone text tho.. http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Whoo-hoo! I'll have to dust off my car in the morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Whoo-hoo! I'll have to dust off my car in the morning! what are you talking about? it ends by 3-4AM and it will have melted before 6AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It is what it is. It is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 what are you talking about? it ends by 3-4AM and it will have melted before 6AM Thank you for that well thought out forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 oh joy wow I'm so happy geeze flood warning northeastern VA sucks huge goat balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 http://www.wispresor...o/w.webcam.aspx Will be fun watching this over the next few hours. Wow, that was fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Temps holding tough in the 50s here I'm 100 percent sure I get all rain next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Upgrade MONTGOMERY MD-CHARLES MD-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-CITY OF FALLS CHURCH VA- CITY OF MANASSAS VA-ARLINGTON VA-CITY OF MANASSAS PARK VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA- STAFFORD VA-PRINCE GEORGES MD-LOUDOUN VA-FAUQUIER VA-FAIRFAX VA- 208 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN THE GREATER WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INCLUDING PRINCE WILLIAM...FAUQUIER...AND STAFFORD COUNTIES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA. * UNTIL 800 PM EST * AT 203 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...HEAVY AT TIMES. A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If you like heavy rain and flooding this is your storm. We've had over 3 inches of rain locally - the rain was simply torrential early this morning. Very springlike this afternoon The cold air will rush in like a major tsunami - AFTER the precip shuts off. Welcome to La Nina in Washington with a NEGATIVE pdo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Upgrade MONTGOMERY MD-CHARLES MD-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-CITY OF FALLS CHURCH VA- CITY OF MANASSAS VA-ARLINGTON VA-CITY OF MANASSAS PARK VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA- STAFFORD VA-PRINCE GEORGES MD-LOUDOUN VA-FAUQUIER VA-FAIRFAX VA- 208 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN THE GREATER WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INCLUDING PRINCE WILLIAM...FAUQUIER...AND STAFFORD COUNTIES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA. * UNTIL 800 PM EST lol That's pretty sad for a winter storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 lol That's pretty sad for a winter storm thread. yeah, it's fair to say that our most memorable snows do not follow flood warnings/watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Jealous! Garrett County Rt. 68 @ Rt. 219 near Accident http://www.chart.sta...0471536ea235d0a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 it looks like it's a bit faster on the whole than 0z--i think that's been the trend all along. It has been trending faster the last 48 hours but I think we are missing something by just blaming this on the speed. Its true the end time has been trending sooner but so has the start time. The storm arrived sooner then predicted also. THe problem was the surface and 850 low trended north/west and even the H5 track trended a little north over time. The changeover time has stayed about the same, or even trended later for my area, even though the storm is arriving sooner and that is because the track is just not favorable. The whole "its moving too fast" argument is a little overdone IMHO. If this was taking the track the NAM/Euro were showing 48 hours ago we would be looking at 3-5" of thump snow tonight and the speed would be less of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It has been trending faster the last 48 hours but I think we are missing something by just blaming this on the speed. Its true the end time has been trending sooner but so has the start time. The storm arrived sooner then predicted also. THe problem was the surface and 850 low trended north/west and even the H5 track trended a little north over time. The changeover time has stayed about the same, or even trended later for my area, even though the storm is arriving sooner and that is because the track is just not favorable. The whole "its moving too fast" argument is a little overdone IMHO. If this was taking the track the NAM/Euro were showing 48 hours ago we would be looking at 3-5" of thump snow tonight and the speed would be less of an issue. i wasnt making a "it's moving too fast" argument.. tho still that's a problem if you want any legit backside snow as it always is. i think many of us have realized the storm track etc is not great for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I posted this in the obs thread but noticed this is the storm obs one, so here it is again. Lt. rain snow mix here now as the back edge of the solid area of precip has drifted back west some. Heavy snow falling in eastern Lee and throughout Wise county now. here's a cam from Wise showing it beginning to stick : http://www.mcs.uvawise.edu/webcam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 For S. Baltimore- ... Winter Weather Advisory is cancelled...The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory. You know it's bad when you can't even get an advisory out of this thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 LWX backed down from the earlier 2-4" forecast for my area. Now back to 1-3" WASHINGTON-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE- MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL... MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN 238 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. 3 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE 1000 FEET. * TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. HEAVIEST BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG WITH SNOW. THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 i wasnt making a "it's moving too fast" argument.. tho still that's a problem if you want any legit backside snow as it always is. i think many of us have realized the storm track etc is not great for a while now. I see your point and you are right, if the upper low were moving slower we might get an extra few hours of snow on the back even with this track. But I see the track as the bigger issue, since some places are getting back side snow, in central PA, just not us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Forecasting snow is not one of LWX's strengths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 For S. Baltimore- You know it's bad when you can't even get an advisory out of this thing... You know its WORSE when there is a winter storm and all you can get out of the deal is a Flood Warning - this storm is an EPIC FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Berk is still all in. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 36 pages for rain. Well done, Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 i wasnt making a "it's moving too fast" argument.. tho still that's a problem if you want any legit backside snow as it always is. i think many of us have realized the storm track etc is not great for a while now. PS> you are one of the best and most knowledgable posters on here for our area. I did not mean to imply I thought you were unaware of these other issues it was more for others who keep commenting on the speed as if that is the biggest problem. Its just one of many issues with this system. Your forecasts are generally excellent, keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Berk is still all in. :-/ A good captain always goes down with the ship, the sinking is already under way here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Forecasting snow is not one of LWX's strengths Sig worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah, the NAM is bad. Very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 PS> you are one of the best and most knowledgable posters on here for our area. I did not mean to imply I thought you were unaware of these other issues it was more for others who keep commenting on the speed as if that is the biggest problem. Its just one of many issues with this system. Your forecasts are generally excellent, keep up the good work. no, you're right. there is always plenty of incorrect attribution with "problems". slowing it down would not help us much but might get us toward 1" or something here in D.C. i agree the 500 track has continually gotten worse and the 850 track is bad. no density of cold air will help with that. i also do not believe there will be thundersnow or anything locally like that. most of the instability comes through while it's still too warm imo. the 500 vort is weakening as well as it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Forecasting snow is not one of LWX's strengths In their defense, getting snow is not one of the MA's strengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 the NAM is flying....once the vort passes, precip cuts off...and there is really no lag time between the 850 low and the 500mb vort....i think most of us are screwed unless there are some amazing dynamics and convective snow.....I think the question is once it changes over if we get a deform band to form somewhere to the west/nw and swing through...but even then unless there are sick dynamics, it would probably be a cartopper at best...there is no precip left to work with..and while I realize dynamics could trump everything, I am not terribly jazzed that it is 55 and pouring 6-8 hours out from this "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah, the NAM is bad. Very bad. About the same as 12z accum wise...so yeah pretty bad. But it does show potential for advisory level wind gusts during whatever whatever snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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