Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm thinking about looking at the RUC That was a bad idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Had to make some big changes in the northern areas… the boundary layer temperatures did not cool off as much as I thought it would on the models in addition to a quicker end to the snowfall. I think that a couple of areas will be able to top out just above 8 inches in the mountains, so I left a small area over some of the WV/MD pandhandles. Snowfall totals should not get hurt too much after the transition to snow finally occurs as a small period of sleet during the transition could/should provide a decent base layer for the snow to accumulate on. Keep eyes and ears peeled for the possible thundersleet/thundersnow during the transition from rain, especially from the northern VA/DC region up through central PA. sat and rad pics tell me that N WV and Garrett Co. end quicker than you are thinking, but I got nothing to loose giving my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 this storm is terrible...next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 this rain storm is terrible...next fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 this storm is terrible...next but it's colder in buffalo than progged! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Snowing here in Oakland, MD. Thanks for the report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 but it's colder in buffalo than progged! I know someone that isn't sending you a Christmas card this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 sat and rad pics tell me that N WV and Garrett Co. end quicker than you are thinking, but I got nothing to loose giving my opinion I didn't say when it was going to end, so how is it possible you think it'll end quicker than I'm thinking? LOL @ using the current radar for extrapolating precip on a developing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 regardless of this pos of a storm, this winter is not acting like your typical dry NINA with all this precip I still think the E QBO will save us, just not tonight but hold high hopes that one, maybe 2, of these in the future works out this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Had to make some big changes in the northern areas… the boundary layer temperatures did not cool off as much as I thought it would on the models in addition to a quicker end to the snowfall. I think that a couple of areas will be able to top out just above 8 inches in the mountains, so I left a small area over some of the WV/MD pandhandles. Snowfall totals should not get hurt too much after the transition to snow finally occurs as a small period of sleet during the transition could/should provide a decent base layer for the snow to accumulate on. Keep eyes and ears peeled for the possible thundersleet/thundersnow during the transition from rain, especially from the northern VA/DC region up through central PA. really good map ellinwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I didn't say when it was going to end, so how is it possible you think it'll end quicker than I'm thinking? LOL @ using the current radar for extrapolating precip on a developing system. based upon those accumulations for crying out loud! p.s. like I said, I've got nothing to loose with my opinions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I know someone that isn't sending you a Christmas card this year. if you make a public forecast you should expect people to disagree. i disagree with my own team plenty. justin is a good met -- i said that already. but im not living in a world where i need to bite my tongue all the time either. everyone can wiggle out of whatever.. he will be able to say he saw snow potential a week+ out when no one else was talking about it if the eastern extent of his forecast fails. plus people have really short memories anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not looking forward to driving in this rain this PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 if you make a public forecast you should expect people to disagree. i disagree with my own team plenty. justin is a good met -- i said that already. but im not living in a world where i need to bite my tongue all the time either. everyone can wiggle out of whatever.. he will be able to say he saw snow potential a week+ out when no one else was talking about it if the eastern extent of his forecast fails. plus people have really short memories anyway. Like you said all publicity is good no matter if he is right or wrong. Until you mentioned his FB site yesterday i had never looket at it once. So even when he is wrong it will do nothing but boost his visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 if you make a public forecast you should expect people to disagree. i disagree with my own team plenty. justin is a good met -- i said that already. but im not living in a world where i need to bite my tongue all the time either. everyone can wiggle out of whatever.. he will be able to say he saw snow potential a week+ out when no one else was talking about it if the eastern extent of his forecast fails. plus people have really short memories anyway. I agree 100%, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Like you said all publicity is good no matter if he is right or wrong. Until you mentioned his FB site yesterday i had never looket at it once. So even when he is wrong it will do nothing but boost his visibility. exactly. the whole facebook phenomenon is another story entirely--but trust me that talking about snow gets on more followers!! i've complained about social media to plenty of people, he has very little to do with my thoughts there... i've actually had some back and forth with him in the past day or so over this and i'll stand by what i said to him -- the people here are way more knowledgeable than facebook folks, and they were giving us a hard time as much as anyone here was giving them yesterday. if i have to side with people it will be those here 9 our of 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phils1 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 "The SI Weather" says that the key to tracking the potential changeover to snow in the Mid-Atlantic region is to track that impressive upper level low which could cause some wild weather later tonight including thunderstorms. The best chance for snow in the N and W suburbs of Philly, DC and NYC will be with dynamic cooling under that cold pocket of air (“top-down” approach) – not from cold air advecting in at the surface from the northwest. 1-3 inches likely in those N and W suburbs. Latest video at their site focuses on the upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 "The SI Weather" says that the key to tracking the potential changeover to snow in the Mid-Atlantic region is to track that impressive upper level low which could cause some wild weather later tonight including thunderstorms. The best chance for snow in the N and W suburbs of Philly, DC and NYC will be with dynamic cooling under that cold pocket of air (“top-down” approach) – not from cold air advecting in at the surface from the northwest. 1-3 inches likely in those N and W suburbs. Latest video at their site focuses on the upper level low. Who the hell is SI weather?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 exactly. the whole facebook phenomenon is another story entirely--but trust me that talking about snow gets on more followers!! i've complained about social media to plenty of people, he has very little to do with my thoughts there... i've actually had some back and forth with him in the past day or so over this and i'll stand by what i said to him -- the people here are way more knowledgeable than facebook folks, and they were giving us a hard time as much as anyone here was giving them yesterday. if i have to side with people it will be those here 9 our of 10 times. Agreed 100%. I do not know much but i know more than 99% of those facebook posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Here is a traffic cam west of Grantsville in Garrett County. http://www.chart.state.md.us/travinfo/camera.asp?Rpuid=14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 http://www.wispresor...o/w.webcam.aspx Will be fun watching this over the next few hours. nice snow there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Was just at the supermarket, and there were people there talking about the snowstorm and stocking up on some things "in case it's a big one, since you never know." :axe: In the DC area. Heh. :axe: :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Here is a traffic cam west of Grantsville in Garrett County. http://www.chart.sta...ra.asp?Rpuid=14 I am very jealous, that looks sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Was just at the supermarket, and there were people there talking about the snowstorm and stocking up on some things "in case it's a big one, since you never know." :axe: In the DC area. Heh. :axe: :axe: So why were you in the grocery store? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 LWX has me in "less than 1 inch" tonight, 1 mile to my NE away from the river they have 1-2 inches forecast. In reality I know what to expect (nothing), but it's annoying to my eyeballs still. My local zone is consistantly forecast with 1-3" less, and it always seems to verify that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 LWX has me in "less than 1 inch" tonight, 1 mile to my NE away from the river they have 1-2 inches forecast. In reality I know what to expect (nothing), but it's annoying to my eyeballs still. My local zone is consistantly forecast with 1-3" less, and it always seems to verify that way. Since LWX will likely be wrong, enjoy your 2'' ground indent from the -2'' of snow you'll get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 LWX has me in "less than 1 inch" tonight, 1 mile to my NE away from the river they have 1-2 inches forecast. In reality I know what to expect (nothing), but it's annoying to my eyeballs still. My local zone is consistantly forecast with 1-3" less, and it always seems to verify that way. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 So why were you in the grocery store? To get food, Wednesday is my day off of school/work. Wasn't aware that grocery stores were exclusively to be used prior to snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 their map is still decent tho maybe hopeful. not sure it matches with the zone text tho.. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 their map is still decent tho maybe hopeful. not sure it matches with the zone text tho.. http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ of course I'm in the appendage :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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