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Ji

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Had to make some big changes in the northern areas… the boundary layer temperatures did not cool off as much as I thought it would on the models in addition to a quicker end to the snowfall.

20111207-08_MAsnowFinal.png

I think that a couple of areas will be able to top out just above 8 inches in the mountains, so I left a small area over some of the WV/MD pandhandles.

Snowfall totals should not get hurt too much after the transition to snow finally occurs as a small period of sleet during the transition could/should provide a decent base layer for the snow to accumulate on. Keep eyes and ears peeled for the possible thundersleet/thundersnow during the transition from rain, especially from the northern VA/DC region up through central PA.

sat and rad pics tell me that N WV and Garrett Co. end quicker than you are thinking, but I got nothing to loose giving my opinion ;)

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sat and rad pics tell me that N WV and Garrett Co. end quicker than you are thinking, but I got nothing to loose giving my opinion ;)

I didn't say when it was going to end, so how is it possible you think it'll end quicker than I'm thinking?

LOL @ using the current radar for extrapolating precip on a developing system.

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Had to make some big changes in the northern areas… the boundary layer temperatures did not cool off as much as I thought it would on the models in addition to a quicker end to the snowfall.

20111207-08_MAsnowFinal.png

I think that a couple of areas will be able to top out just above 8 inches in the mountains, so I left a small area over some of the WV/MD pandhandles.

Snowfall totals should not get hurt too much after the transition to snow finally occurs as a small period of sleet during the transition could/should provide a decent base layer for the

snow to accumulate on. Keep eyes and ears peeled for the possible thundersleet/thundersnow during the transition from rain, especially from the northern VA/DC region up through central PA.

really good map ellinwood

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I didn't say when it was going to end, so how is it possible you think it'll end quicker than I'm thinking?

LOL @ using the current radar for extrapolating precip on a developing system.

based upon those accumulations for crying out loud!

p.s. like I said, I've got nothing to loose with my opinions :)

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I know someone that isn't sending you a Christmas card this year.

if you make a public forecast you should expect people to disagree. i disagree with my own team plenty. justin is a good met -- i said that already. but im not living in a world where i need to bite my tongue all the time either. ;) everyone can wiggle out of whatever.. he will be able to say he saw snow potential a week+ out when no one else was talking about it if the eastern extent of his forecast fails. plus people have really short memories anyway.

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if you make a public forecast you should expect people to disagree. i disagree with my own team plenty. justin is a good met -- i said that already. but im not living in a world where i need to bite my tongue all the time either. ;) everyone can wiggle out of whatever.. he will be able to say he saw snow potential a week+ out when no one else was talking about it if the eastern extent of his forecast fails. plus people have really short memories anyway.

Like you said all publicity is good no matter if he is right or wrong. Until you mentioned his FB site yesterday i had never looket at it once. So even when he is wrong it will do nothing but boost his visibility.

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if you make a public forecast you should expect people to disagree. i disagree with my own team plenty. justin is a good met -- i said that already. but im not living in a world where i need to bite my tongue all the time either. ;) everyone can wiggle out of whatever.. he will be able to say he saw snow potential a week+ out when no one else was talking about it if the eastern extent of his forecast fails. plus people have really short memories anyway.

I agree 100%,

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Like you said all publicity is good no matter if he is right or wrong. Until you mentioned his FB site yesterday i had never looket at it once. So even when he is wrong it will do nothing but boost his visibility.

exactly. the whole facebook phenomenon is another story entirely--but trust me that talking about snow gets on more followers!! i've complained about social media to plenty of people, he has very little to do with my thoughts there... i've actually had some back and forth with him in the past day or so over this and i'll stand by what i said to him -- the people here are way more knowledgeable than facebook folks, and they were giving us a hard time as much as anyone here was giving them yesterday. if i have to side with people it will be those here 9 our of 10 times.

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"The SI Weather" says that the key to tracking the potential changeover to snow in the Mid-Atlantic region is to track that impressive upper level low which could cause some wild weather later tonight including thunderstorms. The best chance for snow in the N and W suburbs of Philly, DC and NYC will be with dynamic cooling under that cold pocket of air (“top-down” approach) – not from cold air advecting in at the surface from the northwest. 1-3 inches likely in those N and W suburbs. Latest video at their site focuses on the upper level low.

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"The SI Weather" says that the key to tracking the potential changeover to snow in the Mid-Atlantic region is to track that impressive upper level low which could cause some wild weather later tonight including thunderstorms. The best chance for snow in the N and W suburbs of Philly, DC and NYC will be with dynamic cooling under that cold pocket of air (“top-down” approach) – not from cold air advecting in at the surface from the northwest. 1-3 inches likely in those N and W suburbs. Latest video at their site focuses on the upper level low.

Who the hell is SI weather?.

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exactly. the whole facebook phenomenon is another story entirely--but trust me that talking about snow gets on more followers!! i've complained about social media to plenty of people, he has very little to do with my thoughts there... i've actually had some back and forth with him in the past day or so over this and i'll stand by what i said to him -- the people here are way more knowledgeable than facebook folks, and they were giving us a hard time as much as anyone here was giving them yesterday. if i have to side with people it will be those here 9 our of 10 times.

Agreed 100%. I do not know much but i know more than 99% of those facebook posters.

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LWX has me in "less than 1 inch" tonight, 1 mile to my NE away from the river they have 1-2 inches forecast. In reality I know what to expect (nothing), but it's annoying to my eyeballs still. My local zone is consistantly forecast with 1-3" less, and it always seems to verify that way.

Since LWX will likely be wrong, enjoy your 2'' ground indent from the -2'' of snow you'll get.

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LWX has me in "less than 1 inch" tonight, 1 mile to my NE away from the river they have 1-2 inches forecast. In reality I know what to expect (nothing), but it's annoying to my eyeballs still. My local zone is consistantly forecast with 1-3" less, and it always seems to verify that way.

It is what it is.

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