Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,793
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    manaja
    Newest Member
    manaja
    Joined

FAILDC#


Ji

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

LWX has me in "less than 1 inch" tonight, 1 mile to my NE away from the river they have 1-2 inches forecast. In reality I know what to expect (nothing), but it's annoying to my eyeballs still. My local zone is consistantly forecast with 1-3" less, and it always seems to verify that way.

Since LWX will likely be wrong, enjoy your 2'' ground indent from the -2'' of snow you'll get.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LWX has me in "less than 1 inch" tonight, 1 mile to my NE away from the river they have 1-2 inches forecast. In reality I know what to expect (nothing), but it's annoying to my eyeballs still. My local zone is consistantly forecast with 1-3" less, and it always seems to verify that way.

It is what it is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Upgrade

MONTGOMERY MD-CHARLES MD-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-CITY OF FALLS CHURCH VA-

CITY OF MANASSAS VA-ARLINGTON VA-CITY OF MANASSAS PARK VA-

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA-

STAFFORD VA-PRINCE GEORGES MD-LOUDOUN VA-FAUQUIER VA-FAIRFAX VA-

208 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN THE GREATER

WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INCLUDING PRINCE

WILLIAM...FAUQUIER...AND STAFFORD COUNTIES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

* UNTIL 800 PM EST

* AT 203 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH THIS EVENING...HEAVY AT TIMES.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.

ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS

IMMEDIATELY. RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WILL CAUSE CREEKS

AND STREAMS TO RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN

THE WARNED AREA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you like heavy rain and flooding this is your storm.

We've had over 3 inches of rain locally - the rain was simply torrential early this morning.

Very springlike this afternoon

The cold air will rush in like a major tsunami - AFTER the precip shuts off.

Welcome to La Nina in Washington with a NEGATIVE pdo

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Upgrade

MONTGOMERY MD-CHARLES MD-CITY OF FAIRFAX VA-CITY OF FALLS CHURCH VA-

CITY OF MANASSAS VA-ARLINGTON VA-CITY OF MANASSAS PARK VA-

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-CITY OF ALEXANDRIA VA-PRINCE WILLIAM VA-

STAFFORD VA-PRINCE GEORGES MD-LOUDOUN VA-FAUQUIER VA-FAIRFAX VA-

208 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN THE GREATER

WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INCLUDING PRINCE

WILLIAM...FAUQUIER...AND STAFFORD COUNTIES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

* UNTIL 800 PM EST

lol That's pretty sad for a winter storm thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

it looks like it's a bit faster on the whole than 0z--i think that's been the trend all along.

It has been trending faster the last 48 hours but I think we are missing something by just blaming this on the speed. Its true the end time has been trending sooner but so has the start time. The storm arrived sooner then predicted also. THe problem was the surface and 850 low trended north/west and even the H5 track trended a little north over time. The changeover time has stayed about the same, or even trended later for my area, even though the storm is arriving sooner and that is because the track is just not favorable. The whole "its moving too fast" argument is a little overdone IMHO. If this was taking the track the NAM/Euro were showing 48 hours ago we would be looking at 3-5" of thump snow tonight and the speed would be less of an issue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It has been trending faster the last 48 hours but I think we are missing something by just blaming this on the speed. Its true the end time has been trending sooner but so has the start time. The storm arrived sooner then predicted also. THe problem was the surface and 850 low trended north/west and even the H5 track trended a little north over time. The changeover time has stayed about the same, or even trended later for my area, even though the storm is arriving sooner and that is because the track is just not favorable. The whole "its moving too fast" argument is a little overdone IMHO. If this was taking the track the NAM/Euro were showing 48 hours ago we would be looking at 3-5" of thump snow tonight and the speed would be less of an issue.

i wasnt making a "it's moving too fast" argument.. tho still that's a problem if you want any legit backside snow as it always is. i think many of us have realized the storm track etc is not great for a while now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LWX backed down from the earlier 2-4" forecast for my area. Now back to 1-3"

WASHINGTON-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-

MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...

MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN

238 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS

EVENING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. 3 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE 1000 FEET.

* TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. HEAVIEST BETWEEN

8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER

20S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO

REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG WITH SNOW. THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD KNOCK DOWN SOME

TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i wasnt making a "it's moving too fast" argument.. tho still that's a problem if you want any legit backside snow as it always is. i think many of us have realized the storm track etc is not great for a while now.

I see your point and you are right, if the upper low were moving slower we might get an extra few hours of snow on the back even with this track. But I see the track as the bigger issue, since some places are getting back side snow, in central PA, just not us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...