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Ji

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Seems to me that most years we get our snow during a short window normally in a crappy pattern....I don't think if we do get some snow next week that it is so unusual really...09-10 was way more unusual than if we get some snow next week despite all of negative factors...hope it happens

yep, our crappy patterns are the reasons why our climo is so bad....we almost always have one!

remember how we were all worried about a strong NINO in late summer/early fall 09'? lol

we were lucky that year, plain and simple; just as unlucky as we were last year

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yep, our crappy patterns are the reasons why our climo is so bad....we almost always have one!

remember how we were all worried about a strong NINO in late summer/early fall 09'? lol

we were lucky that year, plain and simple; just as unlucky as we were last year

Yeah...that's why to me it is so frustrating when people speak in such absolutes...I guess there are times when one can say..."NO WAY it's gonna snow but it just seems risky to do that once the calendar turns December

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Yeah...that's why to me it is so frustrating when people speak in such absolutes...I guess there are times when one can say..."NO WAY it's gonna snow but it just seems risky to do that once the calendar turns December

all things considered, if you are a met in the DCA/BWI metro areas, conservative to a point of obstinate will get you far

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i think its still too early to talk about snow amounts, still 4 days away. models( espescailly the GFS ) will go back and forth a bit till we get within 48 hrs

I think it's too early to talk snow at all. Vegas would put us @ 50-1 for measurable snow and the over/under would be .25".

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all things considered, if you are a met in the DCA/BWI metro areas, conservative to a point of obstinate will get you far

Conservative gets you far even here in interior SNE at 1,000 feet. Its not because we hate snow, its because there are certain patterns that produce and some that don't. SNE has more patterns that produce than DC which is why the annual avg snowfall is so different, but this is not really one of them...this pattern stinks for most areas. The only way this area is more favorable in this pattern is if the storm tries to cut inland and we get a front ender...but even that is prob only 1-3"....the area for >4" of snow is so low in this system as it is currently modeled. There's a few longshot ways it could transform into a different scenario, but those ways are exactly that...a longshot...as is, it would be a very narrow stripe of snow on the coldest side of the storm because the s/w is deamplifying so rapidly that its even hard to get it into SWFE mode...it cannot get a CCB going and the WAA tries to stay far enough east that only a narrow area will get that in a sub-freezing environment.

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all things considered, if you are a met in the DCA/BWI metro areas, conservative to a point of obstinate will get you far

I agree that conservative is always the best approach and I certainly agree that pointing out the obstacles of getting snow is wise...my only point is I just think it's risky to just say that it won't snow at all because as we have all seen mother nature just doesn't care. All of that said I'm not saying that it is going to snow next week...I'm just not going to say that it won't or can't snow next week.

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yep, our crappy patterns are the reasons why our climo is so bad....we almost always have one!

remember how we were all worried about a strong NINO in late summer/early fall 09'? lol

we were lucky that year, plain and simple; just as unlucky as we were last year

Personally I wouldn't call it "lucky", at least regarding the intense blocking and strong subtropical jet which ultimately led to the snows. The setup going into that winter was tell-tale with the QBO, weak Sun, and strong El Nino Modoki. That Miller B on February 10th may have been "lucky" I guess, the high totals, and so on? There aren't many folks who like to use the Sun as a forecasting tool, but I hope someday the connection will be better respected. You can correlate every oceanic and atmospheric entity to the Sun, fairly well. Predicting ENSO is so much easier using the solar method IMO.

Just my own little opinion.

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It all depends how that H5 shortwave spits apart over the plains.

Root for more energy to shear out to the Northeast and less energy to get left behind at the base of the troff.

In other words, the stronger the ULL the more warm air it pumps up.

5H is stronger this run, but NAM is hanging it further west too, seemingly waiting for the northern energy???

at least through 75 hrs vs. 18Z 81hrs

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call me crazy (or wrong), but in most other years, this 5H look would have a much better surface result for DCA/BWI than what the NAM is depicting

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

At what timeframe did the NAM catch on for the October Event? If I recall correctly it was out of line for awhile before locking in suddenly.

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call me crazy (or wrong), but in most other years, this 5H look would have a much better surface result for DCA/BWI than what the NAM is depicting

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

The Northern stream actually chases the Troff to weaken and deamplify from 72 to 84hrs. The weaker faster moving troff gives H5 a better look.

Unfortunately H5 alone doesn't do the trick, we also need the cold air.

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