WVclimo Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 where you getting your info from? LOL. Weenie maps at Twister. Still too far away to consider, but fun runs to look at today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Whole 'lotta spread on the 18z GFS Ensemble: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Looking at the 18z NAM I'd hold off. I should have known better. As soon as someone mentions a radio show, the storm either gets suppressed to hell or gets wrapped up and runs up the Apps. Sorry, everyone. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Weenie maps at Twister. Still too far away to consider, but fun runs to look at today. Love the weenie maps, Well if anyone has the chance, you and Trix look pretty good up there. Regardless fun to track the system either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If you did well in October this looks like a good storm for you again IMO. Too bad I probably can't drive north this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i think its still too early to talk about snow amounts, still 4 days away. models( espescailly the GFS ) will go back and forth a bit till we get within 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 nice blizzard this evening at Barrow, AK http://seaice.alaska...s/barrow_webcam http://www.gi.alaska.edu/~mahoney/ABCam.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Seems to me that most years we get our snow during a short window normally in a crappy pattern....I don't think if we do get some snow next week that it is so unusual really...09-10 was way more unusual than if we get some snow next week despite all of negative factors...hope it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Seems to me that most years we get our snow during a short window normally in a crappy pattern....I don't think if we do get some snow next week that it is so unusual really...09-10 was way more unusual than if we get some snow next week despite all of negative factors...hope it happens yep, our crappy patterns are the reasons why our climo is so bad....we almost always have one! remember how we were all worried about a strong NINO in late summer/early fall 09'? lol we were lucky that year, plain and simple; just as unlucky as we were last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 yep, our crappy patterns are the reasons why our climo is so bad....we almost always have one! remember how we were all worried about a strong NINO in late summer/early fall 09'? lol we were lucky that year, plain and simple; just as unlucky as we were last year Yeah...that's why to me it is so frustrating when people speak in such absolutes...I guess there are times when one can say..."NO WAY it's gonna snow but it just seems risky to do that once the calendar turns December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah...that's why to me it is so frustrating when people speak in such absolutes...I guess there are times when one can say..."NO WAY it's gonna snow but it just seems risky to do that once the calendar turns December all things considered, if you are a met in the DCA/BWI metro areas, conservative to a point of obstinate will get you far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i think its still too early to talk about snow amounts, still 4 days away. models( espescailly the GFS ) will go back and forth a bit till we get within 48 hrs I think it's too early to talk snow at all. Vegas would put us @ 50-1 for measurable snow and the over/under would be .25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 all things considered, if you are a met in the DCA/BWI metro areas, conservative to a point of obstinate will get you far Conservative gets you far even here in interior SNE at 1,000 feet. Its not because we hate snow, its because there are certain patterns that produce and some that don't. SNE has more patterns that produce than DC which is why the annual avg snowfall is so different, but this is not really one of them...this pattern stinks for most areas. The only way this area is more favorable in this pattern is if the storm tries to cut inland and we get a front ender...but even that is prob only 1-3"....the area for >4" of snow is so low in this system as it is currently modeled. There's a few longshot ways it could transform into a different scenario, but those ways are exactly that...a longshot...as is, it would be a very narrow stripe of snow on the coldest side of the storm because the s/w is deamplifying so rapidly that its even hard to get it into SWFE mode...it cannot get a CCB going and the WAA tries to stay far enough east that only a narrow area will get that in a sub-freezing environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 all things considered, if you are a met in the DCA/BWI metro areas, conservative to a point of obstinate will get you far I agree that conservative is always the best approach and I certainly agree that pointing out the obstacles of getting snow is wise...my only point is I just think it's risky to just say that it won't snow at all because as we have all seen mother nature just doesn't care. All of that said I'm not saying that it is going to snow next week...I'm just not going to say that it won't or can't snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 yep, our crappy patterns are the reasons why our climo is so bad....we almost always have one! remember how we were all worried about a strong NINO in late summer/early fall 09'? lol we were lucky that year, plain and simple; just as unlucky as we were last year Personally I wouldn't call it "lucky", at least regarding the intense blocking and strong subtropical jet which ultimately led to the snows. The setup going into that winter was tell-tale with the QBO, weak Sun, and strong El Nino Modoki. That Miller B on February 10th may have been "lucky" I guess, the high totals, and so on? There aren't many folks who like to use the Sun as a forecasting tool, but I hope someday the connection will be better respected. You can correlate every oceanic and atmospheric entity to the Sun, fairly well. Predicting ENSO is so much easier using the solar method IMO. Just my own little opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i think its still too early to talk about snow amounts, still 4 days away. models( espescailly the GFS ) will go back and forth a bit till we get within 48 hrs You sure it's too early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You sure it's too early? Weenies will be making maps already but there is going to be a high probability of bust. Those who have viewer audiences and jobs attached to their forecasts are going to wait for more continuity (minus HM of AccuWx). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Weenies will be making maps already but there is going to be a high probability of bust. Those who have viewer audiences and jobs attached to their forecasts are going to wait for more continuity (minus HM of AccuWx). +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 is it me, or is the NAM pushing the cold air further south after only 63 hrs on this (0Z) run? I guess I should compare it to the prior ones but I'm just eyeballing it EDIT: 66 and 69 hrs push the 0-line north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It all depends how that H5 shortwave spits apart over the plains. Root for more energy to shear out to the Northeast and less energy to get left behind at the base of the troff. In other words, the stronger the ULL the more warm air it pumps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It all depends how that H5 shortwave spits apart over the plains. Root for more energy to shear out to the Northeast and less energy to get left behind at the base of the troff. In other words, the stronger the ULL the more warm air it pumps up. 5H is stronger this run, but NAM is hanging it further west too, seemingly waiting for the northern energy??? at least through 75 hrs vs. 18Z 81hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM wants to phase it bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 call me crazy (or wrong), but in most other years, this 5H look would have a much better surface result for DCA/BWI than what the NAM is depicting http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 maybe the short wave on its heels works out for us if the first one doesn't http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F05%2F2011+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 call me crazy (or wrong), but in most other years, this 5H look would have a much better surface result for DCA/BWI than what the NAM is depicting http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M At what timeframe did the NAM catch on for the October Event? If I recall correctly it was out of line for awhile before locking in suddenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 call me crazy (or wrong), but in most other years, this 5H look would have a much better surface result for DCA/BWI than what the NAM is depicting http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M The Northern stream actually chases the Troff to weaken and deamplify from 72 to 84hrs. The weaker faster moving troff gives H5 a better look. Unfortunately H5 alone doesn't do the trick, we also need the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 At what timeframe did the NAM catch on for the October Event? If I recall correctly it was out of line for awhile before locking in suddenly. 72+ hrs it had it out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The Northern stream actually chases the Troff to weaken and deamplify from 72 to 84hrs. The weaker faster moving troff gives H5 a better look. Unfortunately H5 alone doesn't do the trick, we also need the cold air. enter our friend the SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 At the end of the 0z Nam, look at the -30C 850 mb temps just north of Minnesota. Kinda cold for the middle of December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nam is useless at 78-84. Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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