aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NWS gonna need some luck with those forecasts around here... They could verify out this way...they have us down for 1-2"...I don't think matching the 1.2" total form the October storm is unreasonable...maybe it is but we will see in about 12 hours I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 They could verify out this way...they have us down for 1-2"...I don't think matching the 1.2" total form the October storm is unreasonable...maybe it is but we will see in about 12 hours I guess Facebook: Capital Weather Gang Note: we think NWS forecast of 1-2" in N burbs is overdone. Maybe 1" of sloppy snow mainly on grassy areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 They could verify out this way...they have us down for 1-2"...I don't think matching the 1.2" total form the October storm is unreasonable...maybe it is but we will see in about 12 hours I guess More possible there.. and 1" is not IMPOSSIBLE here but not very likely either. NWS does this all the time... ups last minute then ends up wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nothing is written in stone. Forecasts are forecasts, regardless of who makes them. Obviously some can come up with a much better forecast than others. When it comes to snow, I think everyone will agree that 1 or 2 degrees can make a tremendous difference. All of us think we have a good idea of what will happen tonight, but we don't know. We form those ideas based upon experiences, usually things don't go our way. But, it can happen. The NAM made a pretty good jump in its forecast of snow for the areas to my east/southeast (DC) and to my NE (Frederick) as well as my area. I know that everybody makes fun of the snow maps, but they are generated as the result of what is probably a pretty sophisticated computer program. Obviously, it sees something as being better for snow than it did in its last run. Mean anything? Who knows. That's the point. None of us do. We just have to wait and see. Probability? Doesn't go our way. Guaranteed? Not a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nothing is written in stone. Forecasts are forecasts, regardless of who makes them. Obviously some can come up with a much better forecast than others. When it comes to snow, I think everyone will agree that 1 or 2 degrees can make a tremendous difference. All of us think we have a good idea of what will happen tonight, but we don't know. We form those ideas based upon experiences, usually things don't go our way. But, it can happen. The NAM made a pretty good jump in its forecast of snow for the areas to my east/southeast (DC) and to my NE (Frederick) as well as my area. I know that everybody makes fun of the snow maps, but they are generated as the result of what is probably a pretty sophisticated computer program. Obviously, it sees something as being better for snow than it did in its last run. Mean anything? Who knows. That's the point. None of us do. We just have to wait and see. Probability? Doesn't go our way. Guaranteed? Not a chance. the 850 low is still in a terrible spot.. the 500 vort is not great either other than being strong. plus it's all hauling. we don't generally do well on the backside.. especially if it only snows for 2 hours -- though you're obviously in a better position than most of us. the clown maps are useless.. no one is getting 10:1 ratios except maybe a mountaintop somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Out of curiousity which November storm is in the top 10 at IAD?. November 30, 1967, when 11.4 inches fell, placing it 10th in terms of monthly snowstorms at Dulles. However, this is somewhat of a technicality because the seventh greatest snowstorm in IAD history occurred December 31,1970-January 1, 1971, with 8.5 inches falling on New Year's Eve and 6.9 inches falling on New Year's Day, for a total of 15.4 inches. That is the only top ten storm in either DC or IAD history that took place in two different calendar months, and so I did not count it in the top ten monthly storms at IAD (it was only 9.3 inches at DCA). I also now see that I missed the December 25-26, 1969 snowstorm at Dulles, which dropped 12.1 inches, placing it 9th on the all-time IAD list. So, the corrected number of top ten storms by month at Dulles, excluding the 1970-71 storm, is: November, 1; December, 2; January, 1; February, 5; and March, 1. If the 1970-71 storm is credited half in December and half in January, the top ten at Dulles becomes: December, 2.5; January 1.5; February, 5; and March, 1. The top ten in DC history remain: December, 1; January 2; February, 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 the 850 low is still in a terrible spot.. the 500 vort is not great either other than being strong. plus it's all hauling. we don't generally do well on the backside.. especially if it only snows for 2 hours -- though you're obviously in a better position than most of us. the clown maps are useless.. no one is getting 10:1 ratios except maybe a mountaintop somewhere. Do the snow maps not account for surface temps? Also, can't rapidly falling precip also create rapidly falling temps? I'm smart enough to know that I'm using wishful thinking here. I would just love it though if our whole area woke up to a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I had 4" on 10/29 from .80" liquid falling as snow. I'd expect the same type of ratios tonight, so halve whatever falls once the changeover occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Do the snow maps not account for surface temps? Also, can't rapidly falling precip also create rapidly falling temps? I'm smart enough to know that I'm using wishful thinking here. I would just love it though if our whole area woke up to a surprise. It isn't all about the surface either. In the snow growth areas of the cloud, we are going to be barely below freezing, so the ratios will not be friendly. It looks to me like the NAM wants to paint about 0.1" QPF of snowfall (for me) after the switch at 4z. At low ratios and a warm and wet surface, I can't see much more than what collected in October. It may be pretty in the sky though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 November 30, 1967, when 11.4 inches fell, placing it 10th in terms of monthly snowstorms at Dulles. However, this is somewhat of a technicality because the seventh greatest snowstorm in IAD history occurred December 31,1970-January 1, 1971, with 8.5 inches falling on New Year's Eve and 6.9 inches falling on New Year's Day, for a total of 15.4 inches. That is the only top ten storm in either DC or IAD history that took place in two different calendar months, and so I did not count it in the top ten monthly storms at IAD (it was only 9.3 inches at DCA). I also now see that I missed the December 25-26, 1969 snowstorm at Dulles, which dropped 12.1 inches, placing it 9th on the all-time IAD list. So, the corrected number of top ten storms by month at Dulles, excluding the 1970-71 storm, is: November, 1; December, 2; January, 1; February, 5; and March, 1. If the 1970-71 storm is credited half in December and half in January, the top ten at Dulles becomes: December, 2.5; January 1.5; February, 5; and March, 1. The top ten in DC history remain: December, 1; January 2; February, 7. Thank you very much for all that info, so according to the revised stats my comment about the monsters being in December and mainly February especially at IAD are true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Do the snow maps not account for surface temps? Also, can't rapidly falling precip also create rapidly falling temps? I'm smart enough to know that I'm using wishful thinking here. I would just love it though if our whole area woke up to a surprise. Most or all of the public ones spit out a 10:1 ratio once it's accumulating snow. I think there are some that can be modified but most are that standard. The storm is just moving too fast for any real surprises IMO. The features in Jan were well southeast so we were in snow longer with better dynamics. The only real overperformer on the backside I can think of recently is Feb 9-10 2010 and it was crawling as well. There just won't be much time around 95 at least... Even an hour of heavy snow probably accumulates less than some think after all the rain and with marginal temps. But you're in a better spot than many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Thank you very much for all that info, so according to the revised stats my comment about the monsters being in December and mainly February especially at IAD are true. I agree for February, Naso much for Dec. It's just that we've had a lot of good Decembers in the past 10 years, but getting a major snowstorm in that month is rare, moreso than it is in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 GFS really gives the the metro areas nothing considering marginal temps imho top link shows the 850 line and 6hrs qpf total at 15 hrs while bottom link shows 3 hrs qpf for 3 hrs ending 18 hrs; after 18hrs, it's done http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I agree for February, Naso much for Dec. It's just that we've had a lot of good Decembers in the past 10 years, but getting a major snowstorm in that month is rare, moreso than it is in January. Jan and Feb are our snowstorm months. The records at IAD are too short to draw much from them. I have every snowstorm on record for DCA in a file and Jan/Feb are pretty much on par with the other months trailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not really. Our only hope is a heavy band setting up somewhere as the ull swings through. Even with that, an inch or 2 at best. At least around the cities. T-1 is a really good call for all the metro areas. BTW, I really liked your idea of 1000s of folks with snowblowers on the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I agree for February, Naso much for Dec. It's just that we've had a lot of good Decembers in the past 10 years, but getting a major snowstorm in that month is rare, moreso than it is in January. I just came across a great link, which fills out the picture for Baltimore: http://www.erh.noaa....#TopDaySnowfall Note that the Baltimore top ten is: December, 1; January, 2; February 6; March, 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Jan and Feb are our snowstorm months. The records at IAD are too short to draw much from them. I have every snowstorm on record for DCA in a file and Jan/Feb are pretty much on par with the other months trailing. I was talking about the big ones like over 10 inches. Obviously January get's alot more snowstorms than December, i was talking about the monsters. According to Rodney we have had 2.5 big ones and only 1.5 big ones in December at IAD. I would be curious to Know BWI records. Edit: Lol, as i was typing you read my mind and gave me BWI . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I was talking about the big ones like over 10 inches. Obviously January get's alot more snowstorms than December, i was talking about the monsters. According to Rodney we have had 2.5 big ones and only 1.5 big ones in December at IAD. I would be curious to Know BWI records. I believe it is still true that way, though we've perhaps had something of a glut of January big storms recently. 10"+ @ DCA Feb 13 Jan 7 Dec 7 Mar 4 Nov 1 Though I'd argue a "big storm" is closer to 6" and those stats are heavily skewed Jan/Feb Feb 36 Jan 32 Dec 16 Mar 13 Nov 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I was talking about the big ones like over 10 inches. Obviously January get's alot more snowstorms than December, i was talking about the monsters. According to Rodney we have had 2.5 big ones and only 1.5 big ones in December at IAD. I would be curious to Know BWI records. Edit: Lol, as i was typing you read my mind and gave me BWI . This link has a list of Baltimore's top 20 snowstorms near the bottom of the page, but only through 2006. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/md-winter.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Justin Berk is still liking the snow chances.... Justin Berk, Meteorologist Colder Air! Much of my outlook these past 7 days for this storm was that the models were not giving the arctic air credit. Sticking with the GFS- Temps in Pittsburgh are already colder than expected! While currently 38F, the GFS had them at 45F. Buffalo sits at 30F vs the GFS that had them at 38F. This means the cold air is deeper and stronger than being credited- which will push farther east WHEN it finally arrives overnight. This may be the slight shift east for the Surface Low to allow the stickage expand east and sooner. Stand by for more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This justin berk character seems like a potential weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I believe it is still true that way, though we've perhaps had something of a glut of January big storms recently. 10"+ @ DCA Feb 13 Jan 7 Dec 7 Mar 4 Nov 1 Though I'd argue a "big storm" is closer to 6" and those stats are heavily skewed Jan/Feb Feb 36 Jan 32 Dec 16 Mar 13 Nov 4 I guess we are splitting hairs with the definition of a big storm, if we use your way obviously January is much more frequent. Like people say go big or go home, i personally prefer a 2 foot snowstorm over 12 2" storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 BTW, I really liked your idea of 1000s of folks with snowblowers on the Blue Ridge. Except now it's too late. We need the same folks up there with tesla coils tonight so we can amp up the ull. A little thundersnow always makes a storm fun even if my car roof barely gets covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This justin berk character seems like a potential weenie! He's been calling for this storm for a while, it's kind of "his" storm, so either he is deluded that it will be a real snow, or hoping in the 10% chance it over-performs from a band when the ULL passes through that he will be seen as the only one who called it. If it doesn't, he can issue a quick apology and explain how he was wrong. I guess the "win" is bigger than the "lose"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This justin berk character seems like a potential weenie! We had this whole discussion yesterday already, he is a great guy and an excellent meteorologist so let's lay off criticizing him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Almost 1.5" since midnight at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Wasn't expecting to wake up to a WWA, something change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I guess we are splitting hairs with the definition of a big storm, if we use your way obviously January is much more frequent. Like people say go big or go home, i personally prefer a 2 foot snowstorm over 12 2" storms. Well, go to 8" Feb 22 Jan 18 Dec 9 Mar 7 Nov 1 I'll give you it's muddled at 10" but one big problem once you get to that level is how few storms there are. I don't think you can really go past that and get anything of use. A 2' snowstorm is not likely at any time so you can look at them as flukes no matter when they happen. Perhaps the only thing you can take away about Dec is a big Dec storm, while more unusual, may have a tendency to go for a home run compared to other months -- at least IMO. But the IAD records are less than half as long as BWI/DCA so gathering much from them is difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 We had this whole discussion yesterday already, he is a great guy and an excellent meteorologist so let's lay off criticizing him. oh dont get me wrong i love weenies lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 At this point everyone is going to go to data that supports their forecast--most don't change them radically in this range. I don't think "colder than planned" air in Buffalo means a lot. In the end you can say "had the idea right" and be happy you picked up 500 new Facebook followers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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