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Snowing at wisp: http://www.wispresort.com/wisp/info/w.webcam.aspx

ULL is about to make its turn north. Not impressive yet but it kinda looks like it's going to connect with the precip out in front in a few hours. It will be interesting to see how much juice and energy it has once it gets into central to eastern NC. Around 6pm or so?

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Had to make some big changes in the northern areas… the boundary layer temperatures did not cool off as much as I thought it would on the models in addition to a quicker end to the snowfall.

20111207-08_MAsnowFinal.png

I think that a couple of areas will be able to top out just above 8 inches in the mountains, so I left a small area over some of the WV/MD pandhandles.

Snowfall totals should not get hurt too much after the transition to snow finally occurs as a small period of sleet during the transition could/should provide a decent base layer for the snow to accumulate on. Keep eyes and ears peeled for the possible thundersleet/thundersnow during the transition from rain, especially from the northern VA/DC region up through central PA.

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the 24 hr map on Plymouth shows maybe a little snow in NE Maine

that thing really speeds up once by us

it looks like it's a bit faster on the whole than 0z--i think that's been the trend all along.

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Keep eyes and ears peeled for the possible thundersleet/thundersnow during the transition from rain, especially from the northern VA/DC region up through central PA.

I'm glad you brought this up because I was wondering about it. Pretty good clash of airmasses along with a semi potent ull. That combination always makes things interesting even if it isn't going to snow much.

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It looks a tad better to me, but that doesnt really change anything

how so? the 0c 850 might be light 5 miles to the east at 0z.. there's a bit more precip in that panel but the next one has less precip and almost no change from 0z. 0c line slightly left -4c slightly right. the maps i have don't really tell a huge story though. but overall it looks basically the same to me.

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Had to make some big changes in the northern areas… the boundary layer temperatures did not cool off as much as I thought it would on the models in addition to a quicker end to the snowfall.

20111207-08_MAsnowFinal.png

I think that a couple of areas will be able to top out just above 8 inches in the mountains, so I left a small area over some of the WV/MD pandhandles.

Snowfall totals should not get hurt too much after the transition to snow finally occurs as a small period of sleet during the transition could/should provide a decent base layer for the snow to accumulate on. Keep eyes and ears peeled for the possible thundersleet/thundersnow during the transition from rain, especially from the northern VA/DC region up through central PA.

sat and rad pics tell me that N WV and Garrett Co. end quicker than you are thinking, but I got nothing to loose giving my opinion ;)

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sat and rad pics tell me that N WV and Garrett Co. end quicker than you are thinking, but I got nothing to loose giving my opinion ;)

I didn't say when it was going to end, so how is it possible you think it'll end quicker than I'm thinking?

LOL @ using the current radar for extrapolating precip on a developing system.

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Had to make some big changes in the northern areas… the boundary layer temperatures did not cool off as much as I thought it would on the models in addition to a quicker end to the snowfall.

20111207-08_MAsnowFinal.png

I think that a couple of areas will be able to top out just above 8 inches in the mountains, so I left a small area over some of the WV/MD pandhandles.

Snowfall totals should not get hurt too much after the transition to snow finally occurs as a small period of sleet during the transition could/should provide a decent base layer for the

snow to accumulate on. Keep eyes and ears peeled for the possible thundersleet/thundersnow during the transition from rain, especially from the northern VA/DC region up through central PA.

really good map ellinwood

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I didn't say when it was going to end, so how is it possible you think it'll end quicker than I'm thinking?

LOL @ using the current radar for extrapolating precip on a developing system.

based upon those accumulations for crying out loud!

p.s. like I said, I've got nothing to loose with my opinions :)

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I know someone that isn't sending you a Christmas card this year.

if you make a public forecast you should expect people to disagree. i disagree with my own team plenty. justin is a good met -- i said that already. but im not living in a world where i need to bite my tongue all the time either. ;) everyone can wiggle out of whatever.. he will be able to say he saw snow potential a week+ out when no one else was talking about it if the eastern extent of his forecast fails. plus people have really short memories anyway.

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if you make a public forecast you should expect people to disagree. i disagree with my own team plenty. justin is a good met -- i said that already. but im not living in a world where i need to bite my tongue all the time either. ;) everyone can wiggle out of whatever.. he will be able to say he saw snow potential a week+ out when no one else was talking about it if the eastern extent of his forecast fails. plus people have really short memories anyway.

Like you said all publicity is good no matter if he is right or wrong. Until you mentioned his FB site yesterday i had never looket at it once. So even when he is wrong it will do nothing but boost his visibility.

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if you make a public forecast you should expect people to disagree. i disagree with my own team plenty. justin is a good met -- i said that already. but im not living in a world where i need to bite my tongue all the time either. ;) everyone can wiggle out of whatever.. he will be able to say he saw snow potential a week+ out when no one else was talking about it if the eastern extent of his forecast fails. plus people have really short memories anyway.

I agree 100%,

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Like you said all publicity is good no matter if he is right or wrong. Until you mentioned his FB site yesterday i had never looket at it once. So even when he is wrong it will do nothing but boost his visibility.

exactly. the whole facebook phenomenon is another story entirely--but trust me that talking about snow gets on more followers!! i've complained about social media to plenty of people, he has very little to do with my thoughts there... i've actually had some back and forth with him in the past day or so over this and i'll stand by what i said to him -- the people here are way more knowledgeable than facebook folks, and they were giving us a hard time as much as anyone here was giving them yesterday. if i have to side with people it will be those here 9 our of 10 times.

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"The SI Weather" says that the key to tracking the potential changeover to snow in the Mid-Atlantic region is to track that impressive upper level low which could cause some wild weather later tonight including thunderstorms. The best chance for snow in the N and W suburbs of Philly, DC and NYC will be with dynamic cooling under that cold pocket of air (“top-down” approach) – not from cold air advecting in at the surface from the northwest. 1-3 inches likely in those N and W suburbs. Latest video at their site focuses on the upper level low.

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"The SI Weather" says that the key to tracking the potential changeover to snow in the Mid-Atlantic region is to track that impressive upper level low which could cause some wild weather later tonight including thunderstorms. The best chance for snow in the N and W suburbs of Philly, DC and NYC will be with dynamic cooling under that cold pocket of air (“top-down” approach) – not from cold air advecting in at the surface from the northwest. 1-3 inches likely in those N and W suburbs. Latest video at their site focuses on the upper level low.

Who the hell is SI weather?.

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exactly. the whole facebook phenomenon is another story entirely--but trust me that talking about snow gets on more followers!! i've complained about social media to plenty of people, he has very little to do with my thoughts there... i've actually had some back and forth with him in the past day or so over this and i'll stand by what i said to him -- the people here are way more knowledgeable than facebook folks, and they were giving us a hard time as much as anyone here was giving them yesterday. if i have to side with people it will be those here 9 our of 10 times.

Agreed 100%. I do not know much but i know more than 99% of those facebook posters.

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