TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That's too bad you think that... most if not all forecasters have been putting Frederick in that range or higher, and it seems like a solid forecast thus far. Everyone is so unbelievably brainwashed to be automatically pessimistic about everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm surprised they have 1-3" for IAD. That seems bullish, but an hour difference could mean no snow and 2". I figure coating to an inch for IAD, but I suppose can't rule out a bigger bust with such a strong vortmax. I think it's really bullish, it's hard to get accumulating snow when the 850 low track over you which is pretty much what all the models are showing. I'm in the Ian camp. There is much bigger flooding risk than risk of acccumulating snow for most of the area except where there is elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I think it's really bullish, it's hard to get accumulating snow when the 850 low track over you which is pretty much what all the models are showing. I'm in the Ian camp. There is much bigger flooding risk than risk of acccumulating snow for most of the area except where there is elevation. Really good point. This snow talk might overshadow the flooding threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Just want enough snow to increase the festive rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Everyone is so unbelievably brainwashed to be automatically pessimistic about everything Part of it is our area, but in the defense of this sub-forum, I think this storm has been properly talked about and expectations properly calibrated for our region. A little more chance of sticking north and west of the corridor, smaller chance on the corridor and south and east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If you say "timing is crucial" I'm going to throttle you. Timing will be critical to everything. The key, crux, turning point, lynchpin is that one factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM is consistent. Changeover around 4z inside the Beltway, precip is done just after 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Everyone is so unbelievably brainwashed to be automatically pessimistic about everything you may or may not live in the area long enough to experience the fact that SNE and MA all biatch about not getting enough snow the big difference between the two areas is, however, SNE does get decent snow regularly and the MA does not and often misses out completely while SNE ends up with a least a modest event (in the vernacular, the default setting in the MA is no snow) after that happens to you almost 50 years in your life that you can remember (or for those younger than I, 90% of the time), pessimism is the only logical mindset all the while hanging onto the few 1/25/00 type events as hope that a last minute miracle might happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 FWIW, the LWX point forecast is calling for 3-7" around psuhoffman/Vortmax. 1-3" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 you may or may not live in the area long enough to experience the fact that SNE and MA all biatch about not getting enough snow the big difference between the two areas is, however, SNE does get decent snow regularly and the MA does not and often misses out completely while SNE ends up with a least a modest event (in the vernacular, the default setting in the MA is no snow) after that happens to you almost 50 years in your life that you can remember (or for those younger than I, 90% of the time), pessimism is the only logical mindset all the while hanging onto the few 1/25/00 type events as hope that a last minute miracle might happen Yup...but people do forget that it's normal and expected to get a bunch of 1-3" events than one 12-18" each winter. If the airports get some small measurable accumulation from this, it's not that surprising. Given the warmth and 850 track, probably should take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 FWIW, the LWX point forecast is calling for 3-7" around psuhoffman/Vortmax. 1-3" for me. The point and click forecast has 3-7" out this way over ~1k' as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Is there any historical reference to this kind of setup that would lead to the storm outperforming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If I see snow falling it will be a win around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If I see snow falling it will be a win around these parts. I won't see it even if it does cause' I ain't gonna' be awake! actually, these are the kind of events that Anne Arundel County does the worst of all the metro area, except maybe eastern Baltimore County 5 miles or less as the crow flies from mby they have an additional 300' and they have a shot at 1"+ imho, but not me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Timing will be critical to everything. The key, crux, turning point, lynchpin is that one factor. 18z runs will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Timing will be critical to everything. The key, crux, turning point, lynchpin is that one factor. 18z runs will be telling. Imma put a triple-phasing boot up some azzes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 DT Final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 for our area, I think that's the right call by DT I think he's a bit aggressive in NE from what I've seen on the models, but they seem to always pull one out of their azzes so he might be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I won't see it even if it does cause' I ain't gonna' be awake! actually, these are the kind of events that Anne Arundel County does the worst of all the metro area, except maybe eastern Baltimore County 5 miles or less as the crow flies from mby they have an additional 300' and they have a shot at 1"+ imho, but not me ^This, basically Typical climo storm pattern just like October, where about 30-40 mins away north and west will have snow where i'll be all rain. It doesn't upset me really, that's just how it is. I get mad when areas east and south get all the snow (i.e. 12/26/10) because that's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 FWIW, the LWX point forecast is calling for 3-7" around psuhoffman/Vortmax. 1-3" for me. Tonight: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 29. Windy, with a north wind between 21 and 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches possible THat is my NWS forecast for tonight... seems really bullish to me. I would go with 1-3" and the 3 seems a stretch right now even up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Tonight: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 29. Windy, with a north wind between 21 and 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches possible THat is my NWS forecast for tonight... seems really bullish to me. I would go with 1-3" and the 3 seems a stretch right now even up here. I think you'll get about 3", but probably not 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 there's our only shot at snow tonight in western TN http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Is there any historical reference to this kind of setup that would lead to the storm outperforming? Not that I know of, the 850 and surface tracks now stink, too far north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Like the last storm, I'm thinking that the "Frederick Valley" (which I am determined to coin) will see no accumulation, while the surrounding area get's a few inches. Just a refresher on the pain we saw around here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Is there any historical reference to this kind of setup that would lead to the storm outperforming? Not really. Our only hope is a heavy band setting up somewhere as the ull swings through. Even with that, an inch or 2 at best. At least around the cities. T-1 is a really good call for all the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Like the last storm, I'm thinking that the "Frederick Valley" (which I am determined to coin) will see no accumulation, while the surrounding area get's a few inches. Just a refresher on the pain we saw around here: My thoughts exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 ... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM thisevening to 1 am EST Thursday... * precipitation type... rain changing to locally heavy snow. * Accumulations... 2 to 4 inches of snow. 3 to 5 inches across the higher ridges. * Timing... rain changes to snow in the evening. Heaviest between 8 PM and midnight. * Temperatures... falling to the lower 30s early this evening. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 20s along the ridges to near 30 in the valleys. * Winds... northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow- covered roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving. Up from 1-2 earlier this morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NWS gonna need some luck with those forecasts around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Like the last storm, I'm thinking that the "Frederick Valley" (which I am determined to coin) will see no accumulation, while the surrounding area get's a few inches. Just a refresher on the pain we saw around here: Yea, Frederick seemed to be on the low end with the last one. I'm saying 1-3 for the valleys and of course the Catoctin's will likely end up with more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I will say this much radar has some real strong echoes but the qpf is relatively unimpressive for those echoes imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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