J.Mike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not really. Our only hope is a heavy band setting up somewhere as the ull swings through. Even with that, an inch or 2 at best. At least around the cities. T-1 is a really good call for all the metro areas. BTW, I really liked your idea of 1000s of folks with snowblowers on the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I agree for February, Naso much for Dec. It's just that we've had a lot of good Decembers in the past 10 years, but getting a major snowstorm in that month is rare, moreso than it is in January. I just came across a great link, which fills out the picture for Baltimore: http://www.erh.noaa....#TopDaySnowfall Note that the Baltimore top ten is: December, 1; January, 2; February 6; March, 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Jan and Feb are our snowstorm months. The records at IAD are too short to draw much from them. I have every snowstorm on record for DCA in a file and Jan/Feb are pretty much on par with the other months trailing. I was talking about the big ones like over 10 inches. Obviously January get's alot more snowstorms than December, i was talking about the monsters. According to Rodney we have had 2.5 big ones and only 1.5 big ones in December at IAD. I would be curious to Know BWI records. Edit: Lol, as i was typing you read my mind and gave me BWI . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I was talking about the big ones like over 10 inches. Obviously January get's alot more snowstorms than December, i was talking about the monsters. According to Rodney we have had 2.5 big ones and only 1.5 big ones in December at IAD. I would be curious to Know BWI records. I believe it is still true that way, though we've perhaps had something of a glut of January big storms recently. 10"+ @ DCA Feb 13 Jan 7 Dec 7 Mar 4 Nov 1 Though I'd argue a "big storm" is closer to 6" and those stats are heavily skewed Jan/Feb Feb 36 Jan 32 Dec 16 Mar 13 Nov 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I was talking about the big ones like over 10 inches. Obviously January get's alot more snowstorms than December, i was talking about the monsters. According to Rodney we have had 2.5 big ones and only 1.5 big ones in December at IAD. I would be curious to Know BWI records. Edit: Lol, as i was typing you read my mind and gave me BWI . This link has a list of Baltimore's top 20 snowstorms near the bottom of the page, but only through 2006. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/md-winter.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Justin Berk is still liking the snow chances.... Justin Berk, Meteorologist Colder Air! Much of my outlook these past 7 days for this storm was that the models were not giving the arctic air credit. Sticking with the GFS- Temps in Pittsburgh are already colder than expected! While currently 38F, the GFS had them at 45F. Buffalo sits at 30F vs the GFS that had them at 38F. This means the cold air is deeper and stronger than being credited- which will push farther east WHEN it finally arrives overnight. This may be the slight shift east for the Surface Low to allow the stickage expand east and sooner. Stand by for more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This justin berk character seems like a potential weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I believe it is still true that way, though we've perhaps had something of a glut of January big storms recently. 10"+ @ DCA Feb 13 Jan 7 Dec 7 Mar 4 Nov 1 Though I'd argue a "big storm" is closer to 6" and those stats are heavily skewed Jan/Feb Feb 36 Jan 32 Dec 16 Mar 13 Nov 4 I guess we are splitting hairs with the definition of a big storm, if we use your way obviously January is much more frequent. Like people say go big or go home, i personally prefer a 2 foot snowstorm over 12 2" storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 BTW, I really liked your idea of 1000s of folks with snowblowers on the Blue Ridge. Except now it's too late. We need the same folks up there with tesla coils tonight so we can amp up the ull. A little thundersnow always makes a storm fun even if my car roof barely gets covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This justin berk character seems like a potential weenie! He's been calling for this storm for a while, it's kind of "his" storm, so either he is deluded that it will be a real snow, or hoping in the 10% chance it over-performs from a band when the ULL passes through that he will be seen as the only one who called it. If it doesn't, he can issue a quick apology and explain how he was wrong. I guess the "win" is bigger than the "lose"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This justin berk character seems like a potential weenie! We had this whole discussion yesterday already, he is a great guy and an excellent meteorologist so let's lay off criticizing him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Almost 1.5" since midnight at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Wasn't expecting to wake up to a WWA, something change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I guess we are splitting hairs with the definition of a big storm, if we use your way obviously January is much more frequent. Like people say go big or go home, i personally prefer a 2 foot snowstorm over 12 2" storms. Well, go to 8" Feb 22 Jan 18 Dec 9 Mar 7 Nov 1 I'll give you it's muddled at 10" but one big problem once you get to that level is how few storms there are. I don't think you can really go past that and get anything of use. A 2' snowstorm is not likely at any time so you can look at them as flukes no matter when they happen. Perhaps the only thing you can take away about Dec is a big Dec storm, while more unusual, may have a tendency to go for a home run compared to other months -- at least IMO. But the IAD records are less than half as long as BWI/DCA so gathering much from them is difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 We had this whole discussion yesterday already, he is a great guy and an excellent meteorologist so let's lay off criticizing him. oh dont get me wrong i love weenies lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 At this point everyone is going to go to data that supports their forecast--most don't change them radically in this range. I don't think "colder than planned" air in Buffalo means a lot. In the end you can say "had the idea right" and be happy you picked up 500 new Facebook followers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well, go to 8" Feb 22 Jan 18 Dec 9 Mar 7 Nov 1 I'll give you it's muddled at 10" but one big problem once you get to that level is how few storms there are. I don't think you can really go past that and get anything of use. A 2' snowstorm is not likely at any time so you can look at them as flukes no matter when they happen. Perhaps the only thing you can take away about Dec is a big Dec storm, while more unusual, may have a tendency to go for a home run compared to other months -- at least IMO. But the IAD records are less than half as long as BWI/DCA so gathering much from them is difficult. Ok fine you win . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm not sure if it's accurate, but at 10 AM the temperature at Dolly Sods was 69 according to their site. It hasn't updated since then, but looking at the weenie radar, the changeover to snow for them is not far away. It would be pretty cool to go from nearly 70 to snow in about 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Intellicast weenie radar looks like the euro from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't think I've seen my station quite so flat temperature wise. 55.6 plus or minus a tenth of a degree since 9:15am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't think I've seen my station quite so flat temperature wise. 55.6 plus or minus a tenth of a degree since 9:15am. I've been exactly 55.6 for almost 2 hours also, cut-off not too far west I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Been sitting at 53.1 for a bit now as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I just came across a great link, which fills out the picture for Baltimore: http://www.erh.noaa....#TopDaySnowfall Note that the Baltimore top ten is: December, 1; January, 2; February 6; March, 1. A string of snowy Aprils in Balto 1915-1917. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 No reports the past couple of hours from Oakland or Cumberland, which are usually good sites for tracking the rain-snow line in these events. Johnstown, PA flipped to snow in the past hour. Temp dropped from 36 to 33. But Altoona is still 43 with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Morgantown is down to 35-36...still most of the mts in the davis to snowshoe area are in the 38ish area. It's very close to changing over there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 No reports the past couple of hours from Oakland or Cumberland, which are usually good sites for tracking the rain-snow line in these events. Johnstown, PA flipped to snow in the past hour. Temp dropped from 36 to 33. But Altoona is still 43 with rain. http://www.wispresort.com/wisp/info/w.webcam.aspx Will be fun watching this over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like the dolly sods cam is working, but the temps, etc are not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Webcam in PA looking good there: http://www.paccsa.org/webcam.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Snowing here in Oakland, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 We had this whole discussion yesterday already, he is a great guy and an excellent meteorologist so let's lay off criticizing him. True. But hes also a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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