Jebman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Moderate to heavy rain in Dale City This system is speeding up winter wx advisory just west of PW county. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looking over the Wundermap snowfall for the 00Z Euro you almost couldn't draw it better for having a cut off of snow right on 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 like oct those guys in loudoun without elevation might have the most to lose. i hope leesburg is not actually expecting 4" of snow. At my age the only thing in life that i expect to get is the biggest piece of chicken at the dinner table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 At my age the only thing in life that i expect to get is the biggest piece of chicken at the dinner table Hell I just go to Safeway and buy myslef an entire chicken already cooked, then go home and have a delectable feast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Surprising for Balt City: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 430 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011 MDZ005>007-009>011-071730- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0018.111208T0000Z-111208T0800Z/ CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... BALTIMORE 430 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN CHANGING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 700 FT ELEVATION. * TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW IN THE LATE EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. * WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That would mess up my call for "T" for BWI. This seems unlikely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 They won't save us IMO but I wouldn't be surprised if they trend just slightly colder, enough that we can get maybe an inch instead of a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Just for fun... 2% TOR, 5% wind out ahead of the snow: You know that a snow potential has completely fallen by the wayside when a severe map gets posted. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The 06Z NAM keeps cutting back on any snowfall and moving it farther and farther west and north with maybe the suburbs seeing a little of something. 06Z GFS, for what it's worth, does give some hope for maybe a car topper into the cities though. 03 Z SREF's look to be toasty on the surface for anybody except for far north and west of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NWS is calling for 1-3 inches of snow for me in bethesda. I wonder why they are so optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NWS is calling for 1-3 inches of snow for me in bethesda. I wonder why they are so optimistic. Sure they didn't mean rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Was a bit surprised to wake up with a WWA and a forecast of 1-3 inches of snow tonight (after 1-2 inches of rain today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Was a bit surprised to wake up with a WWA and a forecast of 1-3 inches of snow tonight (after 1-2 inches of rain today) Increase the rain by 25% and decrease the snow by 66.666% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The 06Z GFS ensemble members are in agreement and seem to like the idea of accumulating snow all the way to the bay. Of course we are talking clown maps, an off run of the GFS, lower resolution members, no other model agreement etc, etc, etc............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Winds are becoming light NNE Lotta heavy rain 57 degrees Long way to fall - but then I expected a tremendous amount of heavy soaking rain, ending as light flurries at 1am Thursday morning, no accumulation. No surprize we don't have a winter wx advisory - there is no need - too warm - too far east - too low elevation We'll try again next month for a slushy inch on car tops Good luck with this, mountains and MUCH farther west and north - You should get CLOCKED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm surprised they have 1-3" for IAD. That seems bullish, but an hour difference could mean no snow and 2". I figure coating to an inch for IAD, but I suppose can't rule out a bigger bust with such a strong vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If I squint, the standing water everywhere looks like snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The race between the cold air filtering in and precip will be interesting to watch today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If I squint, the standing water everywhere looks like snowcover. I tried to spraypaint the puddles white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm surprised they have 1-3" for IAD. That seems bullish, but an hour difference could mean no snow and 2". I figure coating to an inch for IAD, but I suppose can't rule out a bigger bust with such a strong vortmax. We've had a couple of pretty dynamic rain to snow scenarios over the past few years. I remember last year at the end of January there was an event with thunder and lightning that dumped a lot of snow in a very short time, but there was a lot more cold air to work with in that system. It was also modeled very well for the 24 hours leading up to it, while tonight doesn't look like much on anything that I've seen. In any case, right now it feels like spring outside down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 As you guys probably know, Howard Bernstien of DC weather is pretty realistic...I chat with him on a regular basis, heres his map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The race between the cold air filtering in and precip will be interesting to watch today If you say "timing is crucial" I'm going to throttle you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Was a bit surprised to wake up with a WWA and a forecast of 1-3 inches of snow tonight (after 1-2 inches of rain today) I was shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I would gladly take 2-4. I dont see it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I would gladly take a lack of flooding. I hope to encounter a dryslot that Peter North would be jealous of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 WWA says 1-2" for the valley in Frederick and 3-5" above 700'....doubt it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 FWIW it does seem like the NAM and GFS both have a definite changeover to some solid snow... even the EURO.. not necessarily for the BWI terminal but points just N and NW (definition of solid snow being maybe T-2") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It's pretty sad the October storm will drop more snow than this December storm. That's if forecast totals are accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 WWA says 1-2" for the valley in Frederick and 3-5" above 700'....doubt it.. That's too bad you think that... most if not all forecasters have been putting Frederick in that range or higher, and it seems like a solid forecast thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Justin Berk's Snow Map: http://www.abc2news....hursday-morning Justin Berk's video this morning has the same map from yesterday so he's holding. Still seems overly done for the 95 corridor and areas east, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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