FAILDC#

[Jebman]

Winds are becoming light NNE

Lotta heavy rain

57 degrees

Long way to fall - but then I expected a tremendous amount of heavy soaking rain, ending as light flurries at 1am Thursday morning, no accumulation.

No surprize we don't have a winter wx advisory - there is no need - too warm - too far east - too low elevation

We'll try again next month for a slushy inch on car tops

Good luck with this, mountains and MUCH farther west and north - You should get CLOCKED

[CoastalWx]

I'm surprised they have 1-3" for IAD. That seems bullish, but an hour difference could mean no snow and 2". I figure coating to an inch for IAD, but I suppose can't rule out a bigger bust with such a strong vortmax.

[MN Transplant]

If I squint, the standing water everywhere looks like snowcover.

[H2O]

The race between the cold air filtering in and precip will be interesting to watch today

[H2O]

If I squint, the standing water everywhere looks like snowcover.

I tried to spraypaint the puddles white.

[nw baltimore wx]

I'm surprised they have 1-3" for IAD. That seems bullish, but an hour difference could mean no snow and 2". I figure coating to an inch for IAD, but I suppose can't rule out a bigger bust with such a strong vortmax.

We've had a couple of pretty dynamic rain to snow scenarios over the past few years. I remember last year at the end of January there was an event with thunder and lightning that dumped a lot of snow in a very short time, but there was a lot more cold air to work with in that system. It was also modeled very well for the 24 hours leading up to it, while tonight doesn't look like much on anything that I've seen.

In any case, right now it feels like spring outside down here.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

As you guys probably know, Howard Bernstien of DC weather is pretty realistic...I chat with him on a regular basis, heres his map

[Scuddz]

The race between the cold air filtering in and precip will be interesting to watch today

If you say "timing is crucial" I'm going to throttle you.

[North Balti Zen]

Was a bit surprised to wake up with a WWA and a forecast of 1-3 inches of snow tonight (after 1-2 inches of rain today)

I was shocked.

[clskinsfan]

I would gladly take 2-4. I dont see it though.

[mattie g]

I would gladly take a lack of flooding.

I hope to encounter a dryslot that Peter North would be jealous of.

[Solo2]

WWA says 1-2" for the valley in Frederick and 3-5" above 700'....doubt it..

[TalcottWx]

FWIW it does seem like the NAM and GFS both have a definite changeover to some solid snow... even the EURO.. not necessarily for the BWI terminal but points just N and NW

(definition of solid snow being maybe T-2")

[snowdude]

It's pretty sad the October storm will drop more snow than this December storm. That's if forecast totals are accurate.

[Ellinwood]

WWA says 1-2" for the valley in Frederick and 3-5" above 700'....doubt it..

That's too bad you think that... most if not all forecasters have been putting Frederick in that range or higher, and it seems like a solid forecast thus far.

[nw baltimore wx]

Justin Berk's Snow Map:

http://www.abc2news....hursday-morning

Justin Berk's video this morning has the same map from yesterday so he's holding. Still seems overly done for the 95 corridor and areas east, I think.

[TalcottWx]

That's too bad you think that... most if not all forecasters have been putting Frederick in that range or higher, and it seems like a solid forecast thus far.

Everyone is so unbelievably brainwashed to be automatically pessimistic about everything

[usedtobe]

I'm surprised they have 1-3" for IAD. That seems bullish, but an hour difference could mean no snow and 2". I figure coating to an inch for IAD, but I suppose can't rule out a bigger bust with such a strong vortmax.

I think it's really bullish, it's hard to get accumulating snow when the 850 low track over you which is pretty much what all the models are showing. I'm in the Ian camp. There is much bigger flooding risk than risk of acccumulating snow for most of the area except where there is elevation.

[snowdude]

I think it's really bullish, it's hard to get accumulating snow when the 850 low track over you which is pretty much what all the models are showing. I'm in the Ian camp. There is much bigger flooding risk than risk of acccumulating snow for most of the area except where there is elevation.

Really good point. This snow talk might overshadow the flooding threat.

[MCS]

Just want enough snow to increase the festive rating.

[North Balti Zen]

Everyone is so unbelievably brainwashed to be automatically pessimistic about everything

Part of it is our area, but in the defense of this sub-forum, I think this storm has been properly talked about and expectations properly calibrated for our region. A little more chance of sticking north and west of the corridor, smaller chance on the corridor and south and east of it.

[H2O]

If you say "timing is crucial" I'm going to throttle you.

Timing will be critical to everything. The key, crux, turning point, lynchpin is that one factor.

[MN Transplant]

NAM is consistent. Changeover around 4z inside the Beltway, precip is done just after 6z.

[mitchnick]

Everyone is so unbelievably brainwashed to be automatically pessimistic about everything

you may or may not live in the area long enough to experience the fact that SNE and MA all biatch about not getting enough snow

the big difference between the two areas is, however, SNE does get decent snow regularly and the MA does not and often misses out completely while SNE ends up with a least a modest event (in the vernacular, the default setting in the MA is no snow)

after that happens to you almost 50 years in your life that you can remember (or for those younger than I, 90% of the time), pessimism is the only logical mindset all the while hanging onto the few 1/25/00 type events as hope that a last minute miracle might happen

[Fozz]

FWIW, the LWX point forecast is calling for 3-7" around psuhoffman/Vortmax.

1-3" for me.

[WxUSAF]

you may or may not live in the area long enough to experience the fact that SNE and MA all biatch about not getting enough snow

the big difference between the two areas is, however, SNE does get decent snow regularly and the MA does not and often misses out completely while SNE ends up with a least a modest event (in the vernacular, the default setting in the MA is no snow)

after that happens to you almost 50 years in your life that you can remember (or for those younger than I, 90% of the time), pessimism is the only logical mindset all the while hanging onto the few 1/25/00 type events as hope that a last minute miracle might happen

Yup...but people do forget that it's normal and expected to get a bunch of 1-3" events than one 12-18" each winter. If the airports get some small measurable accumulation from this, it's not that surprising. Given the warmth and 850 track, probably should take what we can get.

[Solo2]

FWIW, the LWX point forecast is calling for 3-7" around psuhoffman/Vortmax.

1-3" for me.

The point and click forecast has 3-7" out this way over ~1k' as well...

[J.Mike]

^{Is there any historical reference to this kind of setup that would lead to the storm outperforming?}

[Kmlwx]

If I see snow falling it will be a win around these parts.

[mitchnick]

If I see snow falling it will be a win around these parts.

I won't see it even if it does cause' I ain't gonna' be awake!

actually, these are the kind of events that Anne Arundel County does the worst of all the metro area, except maybe eastern Baltimore County

5 miles or less as the crow flies from mby they have an additional 300' and they have a shot at 1"+ imho, but not me