CranberryWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 precip is hauling butt...looks like it will be into SW WV just after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It's just to fast. We need the vort slow down just a little. FWIW NWS still says 2-4 for my area. I dont see it though. This will not come close to Octobers surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Did I read that right at 45 hours? 1084 MB HP over Greenland? Jesus. 522DM at H5 and -30C temps. So I think 1044MB looks more reasonable. If it were 570DM at H5 and -30C at 850 I'd believe the 1084 SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM clown map is a little better than I would have thought...FWIW MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM clown map is a little better than I would have thought...FWIW MDstorm I thought the NAM looked pretty good for here...not sure if it is right but it sure looks like 4" + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Anybody think that with heavy precip and temps that appear to be falling pretty quickly that some areas see a short period of pretty heavy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM clown map is a little better than I would have thought...FWIW MDstorm good luck getting 10:1 ratios most spots.. and the nam runs wet/cold. chop it by 108%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 the gfs looks good if you're high up in south west-central pa. here not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Anybody think that with heavy precip and temps that appear to be falling pretty quickly that some areas see a short period of pretty heavy snow? those guys in loudoun without elevation might have the most to lose. i hope leesburg is not actually expecting 4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Our final call snow map, confidence is pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Our final call snow map, confidence is pretty high. Too much in NE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NWS needs to play catch up with this system I thought we were not gonna see the plume of moisture get here til 6am Excuuuuuuuuse me...................................Moderate rain at 154am? This things isn't a fast mover - its got an afterburner - this will be over by 12 noon on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Here is the WRF model predictions. (Note: I don't know how reliable the WRF is, new model to me.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NWS oddly upped the snow accums in the grids. Gives DC area up to an inch, N. Baltimore Co. 1-3 inches. Earlier today was "little or no snow accumulation" and "up to an inch" for N. Balt. County. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 WWA issued Loudoun NW. Pouring right now, still sitting at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Just for fun... 2% TOR, 5% wind out ahead of the snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Moderate to heavy rain in Dale City This system is speeding up winter wx advisory just west of PW county. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looking over the Wundermap snowfall for the 00Z Euro you almost couldn't draw it better for having a cut off of snow right on 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 like oct those guys in loudoun without elevation might have the most to lose. i hope leesburg is not actually expecting 4" of snow. At my age the only thing in life that i expect to get is the biggest piece of chicken at the dinner table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 At my age the only thing in life that i expect to get is the biggest piece of chicken at the dinner table Hell I just go to Safeway and buy myslef an entire chicken already cooked, then go home and have a delectable feast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Surprising for Balt City: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 430 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011 MDZ005>007-009>011-071730- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0018.111208T0000Z-111208T0800Z/ CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... BALTIMORE 430 AM EST WED DEC 7 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN CHANGING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 700 FT ELEVATION. * TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW IN THE LATE EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. * WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That would mess up my call for "T" for BWI. This seems unlikely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 They won't save us IMO but I wouldn't be surprised if they trend just slightly colder, enough that we can get maybe an inch instead of a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Just for fun... 2% TOR, 5% wind out ahead of the snow: You know that a snow potential has completely fallen by the wayside when a severe map gets posted. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The 06Z NAM keeps cutting back on any snowfall and moving it farther and farther west and north with maybe the suburbs seeing a little of something. 06Z GFS, for what it's worth, does give some hope for maybe a car topper into the cities though. 03 Z SREF's look to be toasty on the surface for anybody except for far north and west of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NWS is calling for 1-3 inches of snow for me in bethesda. I wonder why they are so optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NWS is calling for 1-3 inches of snow for me in bethesda. I wonder why they are so optimistic. Sure they didn't mean rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Was a bit surprised to wake up with a WWA and a forecast of 1-3 inches of snow tonight (after 1-2 inches of rain today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Was a bit surprised to wake up with a WWA and a forecast of 1-3 inches of snow tonight (after 1-2 inches of rain today) Increase the rain by 25% and decrease the snow by 66.666% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The 06Z GFS ensemble members are in agreement and seem to like the idea of accumulating snow all the way to the bay. Of course we are talking clown maps, an off run of the GFS, lower resolution members, no other model agreement etc, etc, etc............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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