ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Interesting post from Tony in the Philly thread, though i would re post: Well based on the 6-12 hr progs vs the 00z soundings, I'd say this is going to come out a little bit stronger with the 00z runs. The trof if anything looks slightly slower than modeled, overall pretty well. There are no surprises with the 250mb winds, euro best here. There are colder 850mb and 925mb temps than progged by all west of the trof in the midwest. On our side, the cold air is not oozing east any faster, euro has the best handle here, gfs nam maybe 1c too cold in places. As far as qpf for the last six hours, gfs and nam thankfully overstated the amounts, more isolated half inchers than wide swaths in the mid atlc, euro best of the lot here. Mark's local program gives PHL 1.92" as the best estimate for the event from 7 pm onward, we'll see. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Interesting post from Tony in the Philly thread, though i would re post: Well based on the 6-12 hr progs vs the 00z soundings, I'd say this is going to come out a little bit stronger with the 00z runs. The trof if anything looks slightly slower than modeled, overall pretty well. There are no surprises with the 250mb winds, euro best here. There are colder 850mb and 925mb temps than progged by all west of the trof in the midwest. On our side, the cold air is not oozing east any faster, euro has the best handle here, gfs nam maybe 1c too cold in places. As far as qpf for the last six hours, gfs and nam thankfully overstated the amounts, more isolated half inchers than wide swaths in the mid atlc, euro best of the lot here. Mark's local program gives PHL 1.92" as the best estimate for the event from 7 pm onward, we'll see. Good luck everyone! quoting from a PHL thread? you better hope Matt (Zwyts) doesn't see this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Interesting post from Tony in the Philly thread, though i would re post: Well based on the 6-12 hr progs vs the 00z soundings, I'd say this is going to come out a little bit stronger with the 00z runs. The trof if anything looks slightly slower than modeled, overall pretty well. There are no surprises with the 250mb winds, euro best here. There are colder 850mb and 925mb temps than progged by all west of the trof in the midwest. On our side, the cold air is not oozing east any faster, euro has the best handle here, gfs nam maybe 1c too cold in places. As far as qpf for the last six hours, gfs and nam thankfully overstated the amounts, more isolated half inchers than wide swaths in the mid atlc, euro best of the lot here. Mark's local program gives PHL 1.92" as the best estimate for the event from 7 pm onward, we'll see. Good luck everyone! If he is referring to the shortwave trof in relation to the PV then that is definitely a plus for us. If the shortwave takes a bit more time that could have a big impact on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If he is referring to the shortwave trof in relation to the PV then that is definitely a plus for us. If the shortwave takes a bit more time that could have a big impact on everything. "looks slightly slower than modeled" sounds like an eyeball analysis, so don't get too excited if it is, however, it should be reflected on the 0Z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 "looks slightly slower than modeled" sounds like an eyeball analysis, so don't get too excited if it is, however, it should be reflected on the 0Z models I'm honestly numb at this point, if the 00z runs decide to put an end to our misery I probably wouldn't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 All I can say is that La Nina's like progged are supposed to be dry. It has been fairly wet and this storm is as well. Gotta think that if we can get a better setup for cooler temps we can get a nice dumper storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 quoting from a PHL thread? you better hope Matt (Zwyts) doesn't see this lol Me and him do not get along anyway so i could give 2 S**t's what he thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 widespread 2-3" qpfs in winter are lol.. should never be believed -- tho of course it's really two storms in that total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Flooood Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 widespread 2-3" qpfs in winter are lol.. should never be believed -- tho of course it's really two storms in that total Even that fact that we are probably getting 1.25"-1.5" from the second part of the storm is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Even that fact that we are probably getting 1.25"-1.5" from the second part of the storm is very impressive. yeah for a fast moving storm that's a good deal if precip if it comes together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Flooood Watch Yeah!! * periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Rain is expected to end before sunrise Thursday. Amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected... with locally higher amounts possible. In the cities... accumulations of around 2 inches in 6 hours may cause streams and creeks to go out of their banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 yeah for a fast moving storm that's a good deal if precip if it comes together The only good to be taken out of it is the fact that this much QPF in December is possibly a good sign for future storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah!! * periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Rain is expected to end before sunrise Thursday. Amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected... with locally higher amounts possible. In the cities... accumulations of around 2 inches in 6 hours may cause streams and creeks to go out of their banks. I always lol when anyone calls rain amounts "accumulation". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Ian, I do not have a phone that can scan your barcode, What does it show?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The only good to be taken out of it is the fact that this much QPF in December is possibly a good sign for future storms. maybe.. often it seems january in particular is prone to cold and dry. we'll probably get a -nao for a while with no storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Ian, I do not have a phone that can scan your barcode, What does it show?. something about $500 donations to become ban free for life-- reminds me i need to change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If he is referring to the shortwave trof in relation to the PV then that is definitely a plus for us. If the shortwave takes a bit more time that could have a big impact on everything. slower and stronger may also be bad though, because the trough ended up more amplified there is more southerly flow ahead of it. That is keeping the temps from crashing until the trough axis passes. Slower means the cold will be slower also. More amp'ed could also mean a more wound up and inland low track. These factors could offset the advantages of a slower H5 movement. I think there is more wrong here then just the system moving too fast. The whole evolution of it is wrong. Our best bet is a heavy thump snow with the upper low passage. Its a fluke type thing but it happens sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 maybe.. often it seems january in particular is prone to cold and dry. we'll probably get a -nao for a while with no storms. True, most of our monster storms come in December and mainly February. If we have to suffer until February to get a monster i am willing to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 widespread 2-3" qpfs in winter are lol.. should never be believed -- tho of course it's really two storms in that total Yep, look at the SREF members. Can you find the weenie (insert name) solution? Heck, now one member is giving us snow, that's up from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 something about $500 donations to become ban free for life-- reminds me i need to change it. I would be willing to give $1,000 for that right. I would love to be able to go crazy for even one day . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yep, look at the SREF members. Can you find the weenie (insert name) solution? Heck, now one member is giving us snow, that's up from this morning. I will take the blue line for 7 inches please Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yep, look at the SREF members. Can you find the weenie (insert name) solution? Heck, now one member is giving us snow, that's up from this morning. 0z runs are going to save us. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 0z runs are going to save us. Mark my words. I wish i could believe you, but i have my doubts. Even though when you make these kinds of calls over the years for some reason you have been more right than wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I wish i could believe you, but i have my doubts. Even though when you make these kinds of calls over the years for some reason you have been more right than wrong. They won't save us IMO but I wouldn't be surprised if they trend just slightly colder, enough that we can get maybe an inch instead of a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I wish i could believe you, but i have my doubts. Even though when you make these kinds of calls over the years for some reason you have been more right than wrong. He has? then I must be wrong almost all of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 They won't save us IMO but I wouldn't be surprised if they trend just slightly colder, enough that we can get maybe an inch instead of a dusting. we've always got hope here in the MA .. even when we don't deserve it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 He has? then I must be wrong almost all of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 He has? then I must be wrong almost all of the time. Lol, i do not have the best memory but the few times i remember him saying the next runs will save us, he has been right i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 we've always got hope here in the MA .. even when we don't deserve it To quote a movie, "there is always hope" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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