Fozz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 My best guess at what's gonna go down. I'd shift the 1" line about 15 miles north, otherwise good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like a nice waste of a perfectly good deform band according to Ptype maps on most model. Oh well better luck next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like a nice waste of a perfectly good deform band according to Ptype maps on most model. Oh well better luck next year. Well, if that's the way it is, then that's the way it is. See you next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 its going to rain on everyone's parade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm going to leave my christmas lights on all night Wednesday just in case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm going to leave my christmas lights on all night Wednesday just in case... Good idea. I'm in. I still think it's possible that we'll see a brief period of moderate snow...unless we sleep through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I am not feeling real good about this one even out here now. Looks like the cold air gets here just in time for the precip to exit. Looks like a Central PA bullseye to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I will be hanging around in the eastern purple zone tomorrow. Skeptical on this one... yet an Oct 29 redo would be awesome with the chill to follow it would be a nice white stretch. My best guess at what's gonna go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Bob gives DC 5% for 1" of snow. http://twitpic.com/7ph5s7/full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Bob and Doug I feel have become too famous for their own good. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 HRS 30+36 on GEFS 18z, members colder than op, hope? eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Bob gives DC 5% for 1" of snow. http://twitpic.com/7ph5s7/full That much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like a nice waste of a perfectly good deform band according to Ptype maps on most model. Oh well better luck next year. Next year is only 25 days away and I think we will have better luck than 10/29 and tomorrow's event combined. Eh, that doesn't mean much. A 2 inch clipper destroys that combination. I agree with Ian. Ull isn't wimpy as it passes through. It could end up being a bit more dynamic than we expect. A brief band of mod to possibly heavy snow is quite possible if not likely for someone around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm going to leave my christmas lights on all night Wednesday just in case... i think we will surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That much? I think he goes a little extreme on the probabilities. Hard to have 0% snowstorm chance with cold air around. At least 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 euro has a D10 snowstorm brewing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 euro has a D10 snowstorm brewing Thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 euro has a D10 snowstorm brewing I have 10 inches to show you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Interesting post from Tony in the Philly thread, though i would re post: Well based on the 6-12 hr progs vs the 00z soundings, I'd say this is going to come out a little bit stronger with the 00z runs. The trof if anything looks slightly slower than modeled, overall pretty well. There are no surprises with the 250mb winds, euro best here. There are colder 850mb and 925mb temps than progged by all west of the trof in the midwest. On our side, the cold air is not oozing east any faster, euro has the best handle here, gfs nam maybe 1c too cold in places. As far as qpf for the last six hours, gfs and nam thankfully overstated the amounts, more isolated half inchers than wide swaths in the mid atlc, euro best of the lot here. Mark's local program gives PHL 1.92" as the best estimate for the event from 7 pm onward, we'll see. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Interesting post from Tony in the Philly thread, though i would re post: Well based on the 6-12 hr progs vs the 00z soundings, I'd say this is going to come out a little bit stronger with the 00z runs. The trof if anything looks slightly slower than modeled, overall pretty well. There are no surprises with the 250mb winds, euro best here. There are colder 850mb and 925mb temps than progged by all west of the trof in the midwest. On our side, the cold air is not oozing east any faster, euro has the best handle here, gfs nam maybe 1c too cold in places. As far as qpf for the last six hours, gfs and nam thankfully overstated the amounts, more isolated half inchers than wide swaths in the mid atlc, euro best of the lot here. Mark's local program gives PHL 1.92" as the best estimate for the event from 7 pm onward, we'll see. Good luck everyone! quoting from a PHL thread? you better hope Matt (Zwyts) doesn't see this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Interesting post from Tony in the Philly thread, though i would re post: Well based on the 6-12 hr progs vs the 00z soundings, I'd say this is going to come out a little bit stronger with the 00z runs. The trof if anything looks slightly slower than modeled, overall pretty well. There are no surprises with the 250mb winds, euro best here. There are colder 850mb and 925mb temps than progged by all west of the trof in the midwest. On our side, the cold air is not oozing east any faster, euro has the best handle here, gfs nam maybe 1c too cold in places. As far as qpf for the last six hours, gfs and nam thankfully overstated the amounts, more isolated half inchers than wide swaths in the mid atlc, euro best of the lot here. Mark's local program gives PHL 1.92" as the best estimate for the event from 7 pm onward, we'll see. Good luck everyone! If he is referring to the shortwave trof in relation to the PV then that is definitely a plus for us. If the shortwave takes a bit more time that could have a big impact on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If he is referring to the shortwave trof in relation to the PV then that is definitely a plus for us. If the shortwave takes a bit more time that could have a big impact on everything. "looks slightly slower than modeled" sounds like an eyeball analysis, so don't get too excited if it is, however, it should be reflected on the 0Z models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 "looks slightly slower than modeled" sounds like an eyeball analysis, so don't get too excited if it is, however, it should be reflected on the 0Z models I'm honestly numb at this point, if the 00z runs decide to put an end to our misery I probably wouldn't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 All I can say is that La Nina's like progged are supposed to be dry. It has been fairly wet and this storm is as well. Gotta think that if we can get a better setup for cooler temps we can get a nice dumper storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 quoting from a PHL thread? you better hope Matt (Zwyts) doesn't see this lol Me and him do not get along anyway so i could give 2 S**t's what he thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 widespread 2-3" qpfs in winter are lol.. should never be believed -- tho of course it's really two storms in that total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Flooood Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 widespread 2-3" qpfs in winter are lol.. should never be believed -- tho of course it's really two storms in that total Even that fact that we are probably getting 1.25"-1.5" from the second part of the storm is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Even that fact that we are probably getting 1.25"-1.5" from the second part of the storm is very impressive. yeah for a fast moving storm that's a good deal if precip if it comes together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Flooood Watch Yeah!! * periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Rain is expected to end before sunrise Thursday. Amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected... with locally higher amounts possible. In the cities... accumulations of around 2 inches in 6 hours may cause streams and creeks to go out of their banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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