FAILDC#

[Deck Pic]

hr 33-39 (03-09z QPF)

http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p06.gif

some of that is rain and then sleet for us...at 3z there is a pronounced warm nose at 750mb...not sure how long it will take for the whole column to crash....I get the distinct feeling I am looking at a cartopper.....I might be able to write my name in the snow and make a snowball if I gather 90% of the snow sitting on some car's roof...

[ravensrule]

Ugh. 850 is not what we want to see at all. Even with a better organized cold air source to our north the track would be a problem. Maybe we'll get dryslotted so we get less rain before the 30 minutes of slush globs fall when the ull moves past.

Don't worry there are no more models to save us. Get your boats out there is a crapload of rain coming. The good news is if we throw some bass on the streets we can get Wes to come with us.

[mitchnick]

some of that is rain and then sleet for us...at 3z there is a pronounced warm nose at 750mb...not sure how long it will take for the whole column to crash....I get the distinct feeling I am looking at a cartopper.....I might be able to write my name in the snow and make a snowball if I gather 90% of the snow sitting on some car's roof...

the only name I'll be writing on my car is "sucker" for believing we had a shot at something

I need a dog to kick or something

[PrinceFrederickWx]

We have a better chance of breaking the daily (and possibly yearly) rainfall record than we do getting snow with this system now. LOL Farmer's Almanac winter forecast ftw... again!

[MN Transplant]

some of that is rain and then sleet for us...at 3z there is a pronounced warm nose at 750mb...not sure how long it will take for the whole column to crash....I get the distinct feeling I am looking at a cartopper.....I might be able to write my name in the snow and make a snowball if I gather 90% of the snow sitting on some car's roof...

The whole column is fine by 4z.

I think we need to boycott NCEP maps now that we have a few other awesome places to go: Raleigh's site, twisterdata, and instantweathermaps. I've really fallen in love with the instantweathermaps site. Quick, and tons of stuff.

[Bob Chill]

At least the models have simplified everything. We only have to follow the ull as it moves past. Pretty much no chance that anything falls other than rain before that. Stinks that the 850 took a farther west track too. Just makes the column harder to cool.

[mitchnick]

At least the models have simplified everything. We only have to follow the ull as it moves past. Pretty much no chance that anything falls other than rain before that. Stinks that the 850 took a farther west track too. Just makes the column harder to cool.

Bob,I think it's worse than that

I think it's "welcome to the winter of 11/12"

too many similarities to 10/29 and this storm wrt problems we face and considering the patterns have a tendency to repeat themselves, well, it is what it is for the foreseeable future

otoh, IF we ever get the stratosphere over the pole to cooperate, we could have a monster or two this year

until then, we deal with this

[Deck Pic]

The whole column is fine by 4z.

I think we need to boycott NCEP maps now that we have a few other awesome places to go: Raleigh's site, twisterdata, and instantweathermaps. I've really fallen in love with the instantweathermaps site. Quick, and tons of stuff.

2 hours of snow wouldnt be bad....I was using twister...didn't realize there were hour increment maps...wonder how accurate they are?...I assume they derive directly from model output data?...or are they extrapolated and estimated?

[mitchnick]

geez, it's 55.1 degrees at Big Meadows campground on Skyline Drive right now, and they're at 3274'!

http://weather.weath...r.aspx?aid=2843

[Fozz]

geez, it's 55.1 degrees at Big Meadows campground on Skyline Drive right now, and their at 3274'!

http://weather.weath...r.aspx?aid=2843

So?

[Deck Pic]

the only name I'll be writing on my car is "sucker" for believing we had a shot at something

I need a dog to kick or something

we did have a shot at a 1-2" event....that isn't impossible though it seems more improbable than yesterday when the models were showing a much better track.....were you believing in something more than that?....if so shame on you

[PhineasC]

Gonna' be a hot rain.

[mitchnick]

So?

considering temps normally go down with elevation at the rate of 3.5 or 5.5f every 1,000 ft, I find that incredible

[Ian]

we did have a shot at a 1-2" event....that isn't impossible though it seems more improbable than yesterday when the models were showing a much better track.....were you believing in something more than that?....if so shame on you

we had a glimmer of hope but it's not often we get to the final answer 48-60 hours out. the writing was on the wall with this one since it looked interesting imo.

[Ian]

considering temps normally go down with elevation at the rate of 3.5 or 5.5f every 1,000 ft, I find that incredible

just think if we were going into this with a normal temp regime.. ahh.

[mitchnick]

we did have a shot at a 1-2" event....that isn't impossible though it seems more improbable than yesterday when the models were showing a much better track.....were you believing in something more than that?....if so shame on you

I would be ecstatic over 2" and felt that that had a great chance

but admit that the trend was looking so good yesterday that it made me think it had a reasonable chance of becoming a mod event

shame on me again

I wish 09/10 never happened

by the time I get over it, my Will will be in the possession of the Register of Wills

[Ian]

I would be ecstatic over 2" and felt that that had a great chance

but admit that the trend was looking so good yesterday that it made me think it had a reasonable chance of becoming a mod event

shame on me again

I wish 09/10 never happened

by the time I get over it, my Will will be in the possession of the Register of Wills

you are an eternal optimist. i remember you comparing october to december 2009 for some reason.

[phils1]

The SI Weather talks about the very impressive upper level feature that could cause thunderstorms during this upcoming event. Also, there is an interesting “bulge” in the 1000-500 mb thickness pattern on the 12Z GFS which suggests a changeover to snow is likely with this strong upper level feature. 1-3 inches likely in the immediate N and W suburbs of DC, Philly and NYC with an inch or less in the big cities. The heaviest axis of snow looks similar to the late October storm (ie eastern WV to south-central PA to the Poconos to interior New England).

[Solo2]

considering temps normally go down with elevation at the rate of 3.5 or 5.5f every 1,000 ft, I find that incredible

Warm up at Snowshoe, too....

Silver Creek, Snowshoe, WV 50.1° F 50 °F 99%

South at 4.0 mph 29.95 in - / hr - 4440ft 11 min 6 sec ago Normal Website APRSWXNET Snowshoe WV , Cass, WV 49 ° F 48 °F 98%

SW at 6 mph 29.94 in 0.00 in / hr 46 °F 4819ft 26 min 45 sec ago MADIS Website

[BethesdaWX]

Bob,I think it's worse than that

I think it's "welcome to the winter of 11/12"

too many similarities to 10/29 and this storm wrt problems we face and considering the patterns have a tendency to repeat themselves, well, it is what it is for the foreseeable future

otoh, IF we ever get the stratosphere over the pole to cooperate, we could have a monster or two this year

until then, we deal with this

Come on man December just started. We're not getting a favorable large scale pattern in before the end of the month anyways. In a nina if i had to choose a month with a +AO it'd be December not only because that's when most ENSOs peak but also because wavelengths aren't as favorable for us, and they're still changing which makes it hard to get accurate modeling.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Long way to go.

[usedtobe]

after passing overhead

yoda!!!!!

And more importantly, north of me.

[Ian]

Come on man December just started. We're not getting a favorable large scale pattern in before the end of the month anyways. In a nina if i had to choose a month with a +AO it'd be December not only because that's when most ENSOs peak but also because wavelengths aren't as favorable for us, and they're still changing which makes it hard to get accurate modeling.

as long as people continue to have unrealistic expectations EVERY SINGLE STORM they will be upset with many of the end results.

[Fozz]

I would be ecstatic over 2" and felt that that had a great chance

but admit that the trend was looking so good yesterday that it made me think it had a reasonable chance of becoming a mod event

shame on me again

by the time I get over it, my Will will be in the possession of the Register of Wills

The trend crept warmer throughout the day yesterday, so I fully expected this to happen. I-95 was already right on the edge of the rain/snow line, two days out, and it was clear that even the slightest warm shift would decimate our chances.

I wish 09/10 never happened

If so, then you're out of your mind.

[mitchnick]

you are an eternal optimist. i remember you comparing october to december 2009 for some reason.

if they would just loosen these d@mn straps, I would be able to type better and explain why

[Ian]

The trend crept warmer throughout the day yesterday, so I fully expected this to happen. I-95 was already right on the edge of the rain/snow line, two days out, and it was clear that even the slightest warm shift would decimate our chances.

If so, then you're out of your mind.

everything was trending north into yesterday.. no reason to think it would magically stop in a good spot for 95 etc. north trend almost always wins especially in a super +NAO. the euro is good but it was not locked in as of yesterday.. so the fact that it snowed on us quite heavily for a run or two was pretty meaningless.

[MN Transplant]

2 hours of snow wouldnt be bad....I was using twister...didn't realize there were hour increment maps...wonder how accurate they are?...I assume they derive directly from model output data?...or are they extrapolated and estimated?

I have no special knowledge, but I assume that it is model output and not interpolation. At 36hrs, it goes to 3 hr increments on the iwm site.

I'd also take the 2-3 hours, especially since it comes with some decent 700 UVVs. No shame in rooting for the small stuff. I missed commutageddon last year, so I've seen about 3" total since Feb '10.

[mitchnick]

The trend crept warmer throughout the day yesterday, so I fully expected this to happen. I-95 was already right on the edge of the rain/snow line, two days out, and it was clear that even the slightest warm shift would decimate our chances.

If so, then you're out of your mind.

Fozz, you are so rational

why are you here?

[Jebman]

This event Wed night/Thursday morning - the rain to light snow episode

1) ELEVATION Dependent !!

2) You must be MUCH, MUCH farther west and north

Application: I'm calm and serene - I'll enjoy my 3-4 inches of plain RAIN. The rain will transition to snow in Dale City - BUT will be ending right about the time the precip manages to change to all snow.

Maybe a coating on the car top but I'm not holding my breath.

You want accumulating snows - Go to Garrett County MD

It's a damn good thing I am so obsessed with Battle Pirates. We have a La Nina with a negative PDO. The heat ridge is raging, as is the subtropical jet.

You all know the drill - Freezing weather, followed by milder, followed by soaking rainfall, followed by freezing weather. Rinse and repeat many times through early May 2012.

[Bob Chill]

Bob,I think it's worse than that

I think it's "welcome to the winter of 11/12"

too many similarities to 10/29 and this storm wrt problems we face and considering the patterns have a tendency to repeat themselves, well, it is what it is for the foreseeable future

otoh, IF we ever get the stratosphere over the pole to cooperate, we could have a monster or two this year

until then, we deal with this

I actually find the 10/29 and current track quite interesting. Not really what we're supposed to be seeing in a nina year. Especially with the craptastic overall setup. October had a better pattern than now but I think it's still a bit encouraging in a way to have another similar system.

Last year featured 850's cruising up the oh valley and jumping to the coast. I personally hate those. I'd rather have an 850 rainer moving overhead or to our east than a miller b. People up around the pa/md border probably don't mind miller b's but us dc metro folk already kinda know how those work out. Then when we did get the big block in place it pushed everything too far south but that's not a terrible thing I guess. Just bad luck.

The psu storm was a nice one. Nice dynamic ull with a nice track. If you're not going to have a miller a then give me that over a miler b anyday.

This year has featured 2 nicely place ull's already. With no blocking and no ao we don't get what we want in the end but keep on having shorwaves tracking across the gc and move them n through nc and off the va coast all winter long. I'll take my chances.

We'll see how things shape up later this month. I'm still optimistic about near climo snow this year and won't change my mind unless the +ao/nao combo is locked into place as we move into jan.