ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like the changeover on the 18z NAM is 4z around DCA. Back edge at that point is around Front Royal. Not that it means much but wasn't the changeover at 5z on the 12z Nam?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 lol, I liked DT's original map which I think is not too different from the CWG one. Yeah i know just teasing you, i will be very happy if i actually get 1 inch of accumulation with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18z NAM looks better to me than 12z unless I'm reading it wrong? Edit: Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Not that it means much but wasn't the changeover at 5z on the 12z Nam?. 4-5z. Not too much difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Stronger, slightly faster, and warmer initially than 12z but looks pretty similar overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 4-5z. Not too much difference. But i guess 1 hour could mean .3" more for us so that is a big deal considering i have spent 50 hours tracking this dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 hpc pulled back west a bit on probs of 1" but more or less the same around the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18z NAM looks better to me than 12z unless I'm readig it wrong? 850's crash sooner even with less QPF (still boatloads). Could just be faster but can't tell. "should be" snow over us at 36 hrs, but I haven't seen the soundings http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F06%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 hr 33-39 (03-09z QPF) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20111206/18/nam_namer_039_precip_p06.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 But i guess 1 hour could mean .3" more for us so that is a big deal considering i have spent 50 hours tracking this dud. The back edge is a little faster too, so that kind of cancels it out. Not really any exciting changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like the 850 low actually tracks north of us on the 18Z nam. That's never a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 "should be" snow over us at 36 hrs, but I haven't seen the soundings http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L Below freezing to at least 975mb. It is snow at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 "should be" snow over us at 36 hrs, but I haven't seen the soundings http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L haha actually it's much worse accum wise, but probably more in line with reality now. All we can hope for now is the shortwave slowing down a tad more than guidance suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like the 850 low actually tracks north of us on the 18Z nam. That's never a good sign. You are killing me Wes, let me know when you are going fishing next. I want to come along just so i can jump off your boat and end my agony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like the 850 low actually tracks north of us on the 18Z nam. That's never a good sign. you and that 850 low why I ought to......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like the 850 low actually tracks north of us on the 18Z nam. That's never a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like the 850 low actually tracks north of us on the 18Z nam. That's never a good sign. I think its just E of us at 33 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20111206/18/nam_namer_033_850_temp_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think its just E of us at 33 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa...850_temp_ht.gif after passing overhead yoda!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 How from that map can you tell exactly where the 850 low is tracking?. I know you look at that black circle that starts south of us and extends into PA but how do you figure out exactly where it is tracking. Thank you for your help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 How from that map can you tell exactly where the 850 low is tracking?. I know you look at that black circle that starts south of us and extends into PA but how do you figure out exactly where it is tracking. Thank you for your help Easiest way is just to step forward and backward: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2011120618&var=HGT&lev=850mb&hour=032 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Easiest way is just to step forward and backward: http://www.instantwe...=850mb&hour=032 Got it thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Ugh. 850 is not what we want to see at all. Even with a better organized cold air source to our north the track would be a problem. Maybe we'll get dryslotted so we get less rain before the 30 minutes of slush globs fall when the ull moves past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Ugh. 850 is not what we want to see at all. Even with a better organized cold air source to our north the track would be a problem. Maybe we'll get dryslotted so we get less rain before the 30 minutes of slush globs fall when the ull moves past. Don't worry there are no more models to save us. Get your boats out there is a crapload of rain coming. The good news is if we throw some bass on the streets we can get Wes to come with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 some of that is rain and then sleet for us...at 3z there is a pronounced warm nose at 750mb...not sure how long it will take for the whole column to crash....I get the distinct feeling I am looking at a cartopper.....I might be able to write my name in the snow and make a snowball if I gather 90% of the snow sitting on some car's roof... the only name I'll be writing on my car is "sucker" for believing we had a shot at something I need a dog to kick or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 We have a better chance of breaking the daily (and possibly yearly) rainfall record than we do getting snow with this system now. LOL Farmer's Almanac winter forecast ftw... again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 some of that is rain and then sleet for us...at 3z there is a pronounced warm nose at 750mb...not sure how long it will take for the whole column to crash....I get the distinct feeling I am looking at a cartopper.....I might be able to write my name in the snow and make a snowball if I gather 90% of the snow sitting on some car's roof... The whole column is fine by 4z. I think we need to boycott NCEP maps now that we have a few other awesome places to go: Raleigh's site, twisterdata, and instantweathermaps. I've really fallen in love with the instantweathermaps site. Quick, and tons of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 At least the models have simplified everything. We only have to follow the ull as it moves past. Pretty much no chance that anything falls other than rain before that. Stinks that the 850 took a farther west track too. Just makes the column harder to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 At least the models have simplified everything. We only have to follow the ull as it moves past. Pretty much no chance that anything falls other than rain before that. Stinks that the 850 took a farther west track too. Just makes the column harder to cool. Bob,I think it's worse than that I think it's "welcome to the winter of 11/12" too many similarities to 10/29 and this storm wrt problems we face and considering the patterns have a tendency to repeat themselves, well, it is what it is for the foreseeable future otoh, IF we ever get the stratosphere over the pole to cooperate, we could have a monster or two this year until then, we deal with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 geez, it's 55.1 degrees at Big Meadows campground on Skyline Drive right now, and they're at 3274'! http://weather.weath...r.aspx?aid=2843 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 geez, it's 55.1 degrees at Big Meadows campground on Skyline Drive right now, and their at 3274'! http://weather.weath...r.aspx?aid=2843 So? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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