Ji Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Jma has a high qpf event...hard to tell temps with 24 hour slides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Jma has a high qpf event...hard to tell temps with 24 hour slides Ji if it weren't for you, I would have forgot that the JMA existed at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Jma has a high qpf event...hard to tell temps with 24 hour slides Radio show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Radio show? Looking at the 18z NAM I'd hold off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Looking at the 18z NAM I'd hold off. at the end of the NAM's run late Friday and early yesterday, NAM was way to far west with the current storm, giving snow to OK and KS I'd give the NAM another 24 hours before getting excited one way or the other of course, none of the models beyond 48 hrs (at the most) instill much confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Ji sees hope in every storm chance the same way he thinks the Skins will win every game. Thread the needles don't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18z looks like a rain to snow mix, mainly North and West... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Ji sees hope in every storm chance the same way he thinks the Skins will win every game. Thread the needles don't work especially when you don't know how to sew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18z a compromise between 6z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 If you did well in October this looks like a good storm for you again IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Quite a difference between the surface and upper levels on the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Theres a chance the GFS is slightly too amped between hour 78 and hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Theres a chance the GFS is slightly too amped between hour 78 and hour 90. because you want the blue line a bit further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 If you did well in October this looks like a good storm for you again IMO. Agree. Especially for counties along the bay also. The bay is still warm with temperatures in low 50s so that would hurt chances even more. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.9914373369788&lon=-76.3714599609375&site=lwx&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 If you did well in October this looks like a good storm for you again IMO. That raises my confidence a good deal. The GFS has been pretty consistent since yesterday about this one. I don't know what its ens. will look like, but the 12z showed some unusual concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 because you want the blue line a bit further south? Haha well yeah I want it further south, but thats not why I think it might be too amped. Hey I called this one out 5 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Haha well yeah I want it further south, but thats not why I think it might be too amped. Hey I called this one 5 days ago Why, then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 That raises my confidence a good deal. The GFS has been pretty consistent since yesterday about this one. I don't know what its ens. will look like, but the 12z showed some unusual concensus. unless the euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 If you did well in October this looks like a good storm for you again IMO. My 10 min flake fest was awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 My 10 min flake fest was awesome still pretty early/marginal -- climo/elevation would rule unless you get a good convective thumper. i think the euro will come north along with warmer temps in our 'hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 06Z GFS gave me 6-8" of snow. 12Z GFS gave me 6-8" of snow. 18Z GFS gave me 6-8" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 unless the euro is right. Yes. I read that it was more suppressed? I also read that its ens. was further north and west and more amped? Unlike last year, I think I worry more about this being more west/north and warmer than I do about it being suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18Z GFS gave me 6-8" of snow. You are either getting 5.9 or 8.1, but there's no way you're getting 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Why, then? Aside from it being my hunch, the past few GFS and Euro runs have trended conecutively stronger and SW with the low in Central Canada and faster with the wave from the S plains into TN. The 12z Euro was also faster than in it's 00z run with the Canadian Vortex. More directly the GFS this fall has had a tendancy to over-amp systems that transfer to the coast, though there have been only a few occasions so far this year the October 29th storm comes to mind as well as a few other disturbances along the SE coast that I remember. And yeah I hope I'm right too because I want snow But thats honestly irrelvent, I wouldn't want to look like a blowhard just to cure the restlesness of my inner weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Yes. I read that it was more suppressed? I also read that its ens. was further north and west and more amped? Unlike last year, I think I worry more about this being more west/north and warmer than I do about it being suppressed. the euro ensemble mean is quite a bit north and west with the precip/temp structure. not sure i'd say it's more amped/stronger. but looks more like the gfs compared to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Looks like another potential event where the hills around me get a sig snow and nothing sticks in the valley.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18Z GFS gave me 6-8" of snow. where you getting your info from? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 My 10 min flake fest was awesome I'll send you pics bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I have a hunch weather is going to happen this week, now don't ask me why I feel that way, because I can't explain it in a way that makes any sense to anyone but me. It's just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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