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FAILDC#


Ji

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Looking at the 18z NAM I'd hold off.

at the end of the NAM's run late Friday and early yesterday, NAM was way to far west with the current storm, giving snow to OK and KS

I'd give the NAM another 24 hours before getting excited one way or the other

of course, none of the models beyond 48 hrs (at the most) instill much confidence

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If you did well in October this looks like a good storm for you again IMO.

Agree. Especially for counties along the bay also. The bay is still warm with temperatures in low 50s so that would hurt chances even more.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.9914373369788&lon=-76.3714599609375&site=lwx&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

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That raises my confidence a good deal.

The GFS has been pretty consistent since yesterday about this one. I don't know what its ens. will look like, but the 12z showed some unusual concensus.

unless the euro is right. :whistle:

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My 10 min flake fest was awesome

still pretty early/marginal -- climo/elevation would rule unless you get a good convective thumper. i think the euro will come north along with warmer temps in our 'hood.

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Why, then?

Aside from it being my hunch, the past few GFS and Euro runs have trended conecutively stronger and SW with the low in Central Canada and faster with the wave from the S plains into TN. The 12z Euro was also faster than in it's 00z run with the Canadian Vortex. More directly the GFS this fall has had a tendancy to over-amp systems that transfer to the coast, though there have been only a few occasions so far this year the October 29th storm comes to mind as well as a few other disturbances along the SE coast that I remember.

And yeah I hope I'm right too because I want snow :P But thats honestly irrelvent, I wouldn't want to look like a blowhard just to cure the restlesness of my inner weenie.

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Yes. I read that it was more suppressed? I also read that its ens. was further north and west and more amped?

Unlike last year, I think I worry more about this being more west/north and warmer than I do about it being suppressed.

the euro ensemble mean is quite a bit north and west with the precip/temp structure. not sure i'd say it's more amped/stronger. but looks more like the gfs compared to the op.

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