Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 his original call definitely seemed better I think even his original guess is in jeopardy, never mind his latest call, which makes no sense given today's trends. I doubt that I get over an inch but he gave me 1-3 on his 1st guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro is still meh but hard to say. 6 hour increments don't help. But I think the implication is pretty clear. That there is not much moisture to work with after the changeover for the cities. A forecast for my backyard based strictly on the euro would be heavy rain mixing with and changing to snow before ending. Up to an inch possible mostly on grassy surfaces. I still like my over under of 0.5" here. I hope your call is right, I'm still hoping to keep the dec snowfall below average if I can escape this storm. I'd hate for it us to get two sloppy little events to push us over climo. I'd like to lose on a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 CWG map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 LWX held off of forecasting any accumulations for HGR and MRB. Forecast calls for chance of rain and snow in the evening. WSW's up to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 CWG map Now that seems like a more realistic map then what I have seen from other sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Was trying to remember which had the better temp profile for the Oct storm. Was it the Nam or the GFS? Anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 CWG map 26 pages for that uh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 CWG map Still bullish to me. If I get 30 min of big fat flakes like in Oct then that will be cool. Not staying up to wait for them, tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Im in the 4-8 LOL...i think i can get 2-3 Did you move to Winchester? Because Leesburg is not in DT's 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Was trying to remember which had the better temp profile for the Oct storm. Was it the Nam or the GFS? Anybody? My memory was the GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 My memory was the GFS did. Yeah but the NAM had a better grasp of the QPF. And snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 26 pages for that uh boy gotta love this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 gotta love this area. Fall is usually pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 My memory was the GFS did. Thanks. If that's the case here as well then you would almost have to go with the lower snow totals with the warmer GFS. If my memory serves me right though, in the past the NAM normally had a better grasp of the temp profile but it also overdid the precip totals, though in the OCT storm it seemed to have a good grasp of the totals. I have to wonder what's different to cause this change in tendencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Guess LWX heard about my snow magnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 the nam was too cold in the low levels.. gfs too warm aloft -- the nam is typically too cold at the low levels even if better than many of the models in the final 24 hrs or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 gotta love this area. We by far have the biggest weenies in the country, myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Guess LWX heard about my snow magnet You are a mean man, i hope you get 6 inches. Of rain that is . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 We by far have the biggest weenies in the country, myself included. i dunno if that's true.. read some of the other forums. that said, snow lovers are fairly content to never learn anything year to year it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 LWX weighs in with their afternoon AFD .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A POTENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING UP THE COAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE SAME TIME THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THERE WILL ONLY BE ABOUT A TWO TO FOUR HOUR PERIOD FOR SNOW BEFORE DRIER AIR COMES IN AND ENDS THE PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE FIRST. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...EXTREME NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN MARYLAND. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CITIES OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE AND FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST THE COLDER AIR WILL TAKE LONGER TO ARRIVE. THEREFORE...ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS GRASSY SURFACES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIMING OF THE STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOULD THE STORM TRACK A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...THEN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH THE CITIES OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY THE MORNING RUSH HOUR THURSDAY AS THE LOW RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY PROVIDING DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i dunno if that's true.. read some of the other forums. that said, snow lovers are fairly content to never learn anything year to year it seems. Well maybe i should rephrase that, we have the biggest weenies who rarely get snow. At least in New England and NY they get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Well maybe i should rephrase that, we have the biggest weenies who rarely get snow. At least in New England and NY they get some snow. That makes it even worse, they get their 35" in 2009/10 and call it "epic screwage". For our lattitude I think our subforum is quite tolerable, relatively. Even as a lurker I enjoyed reading the SNE subforum that winter. Sweet sweet irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'd be pretty surprised if DCA records more than a few tenths of an inch. Even if they get in a period of moderate snow for 45 minutes it would probably be a T or 0.1". IAD is another story. They got 0.6" with the October storm. I think they probably surpass that but the bust potential is still high. It seems to me the model guidance has to be pretty wrong to get an extended period of heavy snow and 31-32 degrees such that several inches could fall even in the burbs. I like the CWG map. No reason to go any more bullish than that map. Jason just posted the CWG accumulation map in my post. I like it, it's pretty much what I would have drawn if I was doing the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Jason just posted the CWG accumulation map in my post. I like it, it's pretty much what I would have drawn if I was doing the map. Oh you mean you changed you ideas about agreeing with DT's map . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Our subform is probably full of more realism than others. And, not too many ma weenies freak out at a moments notice. If anything, the ma subforum only ranks about a 5 on the weenometer imo. I think having folks like wes around helps alot. Also, coastal and orh know exactly when to make an appearance. Edit: I only mentioned wes in my post. I think all the ma red tag regulars and the long time non-met but well versed members are just excellent here. Really helps keep a lid on scewed up analysis and unrealistic expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i dunno if that's true.. read some of the other forums. that said, snow lovers are fairly content to never learn anything year to year it seems. In regards to the DC-Baltimore region, it's probably because we generally only have fantasies to look forward to. If we learn too much and accept the reality that this area sucks for snow, then we can't indulge in those fantasies. Otherwise we risk being jaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'd be pretty surprised if DCA records more than a few tenths of an inch. Even if they get in a period of moderate snow for 45 minutes it would probably be a T or 0.1". IAD is another story. They got 0.6" with the October storm. I think they probably surpass that but the bust potential is still high. It seems to me the model guidance has to be pretty wrong to get an extended period of heavy snow and 31-32 degrees such that several inches could fall even in the burbs. I like the CWG map. No reason to go any more bullish than that map. All it would really take is the shortwave coming in a tiny bit slower than progged to result in significant changes in accums over the peidmont. That has happened before [regarding shortwaves progged too fast], I believe, but can't remember it ever remember a R/S line hinging on it's development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like the changeover on the 18z NAM is 4z around DCA. Back edge at that point is around Front Royal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Oh you mean you changed you ideas about agreeing with DT's map . lol, I liked DT's original map which I think is not too different from the CWG one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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