BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Sheesh. I wonder how much of that will be snow out here. Enough to share with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Meh, GFS still put out .2 Liquid equivalent QPF as snow at DCA. Could be good enough for a slushy coating definitely possible tho i think the models generally overdo the backside. i would expect at least some snow to end. but getting flakes to stick on 2" of water on the ground can be a tricky proposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 He's a dolt. berk is excited about the gfs for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 He's a dolt. i dont think so. he's quite good at what he does. there's just a tendancy (by just about everyone) to overplay to their audience... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 We need a couple thousand weenies on top of the NC apps with leafblowers blaring so they can push the 850 about 75-100 miles west east. I'm kinda surprised that the 850 track came so far west. I had a hunch everything would hold serve but hunches don't mean jack in a super crappy pattern. A bit further in the gfs run shows a closed 500 apps runner with some cold stuff following. Too bad nothing is tagging along because the trough looks kinda nice. There is some energy leaving the southern rockies into texas but it kinda fizzles. I know it's fantasy land so I have little confidence in much but the lr doesn't show anything tragic. If anything, it has a colder look throughout that what we've seen recently. Last night's Euro supports cold temps and an ec trough at the end of the run. Mid month indices forcasts show a near neutral nao with a rising pna. AO still in the crapper but I don't expect that to cooperate much until January. We'll see what happens next week. A rising pna and ec trough is a heck of alot better than a se ridge. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take anything here in the city.....I told Will-ORH yesterday that my over/under for my back yard was 0.5"....may not happen but if I can hit that or exceed I will be happy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks interesting enough to nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 At risk of being banned by Randy For the 12z UKIE, 850 0c line at 36 hrs is back in the Apps... I would guess 39 is near I-95 At 42 hrs -- http://vortex.plymou...53440900000.gif its east of the Bay h5 at 36 is in NW NC, at 42 is pretty much over ACY, perhaps just west -- http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/111206171606719977000.gif -- which would lead me to believe that the h5 low passes just south of us down near EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take anything here in the city.....I told Will-ORH yesterday that my over/under for my back yard was 0.5"....may not happen but if I can hit that or exceed I will be happy.... hard to go any higher based on what's been spit out so far. then again this is the worst time of day/night for it to snow anyway so who really cares if it "busts". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll be happy with .3" but anything under that will be a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll be happy with .3" but anything under that will be a disappointment. if it was a 6-12" event you would still sleep through it.....some of us like snow more than others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 hard to go any higher based on what's been spit out so far. then again this is the worst time of day/night for it to snow anyway so who really cares if it "busts". If it looks dynamic at the end I'll stay up, but only because I have that luxury....if I had to get up at 6:30 to drive my kids to school and go to my job, I probably wouldnt stay up for a cartopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Unless things jog the other way, I'm kinda down on our chances. A crap pile of rain first and all hope is pinned on a changeover at the end. I guess if temps can get to 32-33 then yea, metro areas could see something stick somewhere but I dont' know really. Without a near perfect track then it's hard to imagine any accum snow. At least in the metro areas. Hope I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If it looks dynamic at the end I'll stay up, but only because I have that luxury....if I had to get up at 6:30 to drive my kids to school and go to my job, I probably wouldnt stay up for a cartopper i give you permission to call me and wake me up if we get 1/8 vis or thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take anything here in the city.....I told Will-ORH yesterday that my over/under for my back yard was 0.5"....may not happen but if I can hit that or exceed I will be happy.... yea if i see a changeover of some decent snow for a bit i would be happy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 nicholas gunter is tattling on us on facebook. he sounds like a . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Unless things jog the other way, I'm kinda down on our chances. A crap pile of rain first and all hope is pinned on a changeover at the end. I guess if temps can get to 32-33 then yea, metro areas could see something stick somewhere but I dont' know really. Without a near perfect track then it's hard to imagine any accum snow. At least in the metro areas. Hope I'm wrong though. We all know changeover's almost never work out around here, so it is highly unlikely unless things change that we have any snow that actually sticks to the ground. If the Euro looks like the 0z last night i think we are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 nicholas gunter is tattling on us on facebook. he sounds like a . Should I feel stupid for not knowing who he is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i give you permission to call me and wake me up if we get 1/8 vis or thundersnow Ah, come on Ian. You'll wake up and look out your window during "primetime". All weenies have an automatic alarm built in their brain to wake up and take a peek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Should I feel stupid for not knowing who he is? no.. some random facebook dude -- hoping i annoy him here so he'll speak up. https://www.facebook...75673475&type=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 nicholas gunter is tattling on us on facebook. he sounds like a . Justin Berk reads this site anyway, it is not like we are trying to hide anything. He is an excellent meteoroligist but he usually over predicts snow to get his viewers excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Should I feel stupid for not knowing who he is? Some moron posting on Justin Berk's facebook page telling him what we are saying about him here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Ah, come on Ian. You'll wake up and look out your window during "primetime". All weenies have an automatic alarm built in their brain to wake up and take a peek. yeah i guess that's true sometimes. though i slept through the pre game overnight event before feb 5-6. that 2-6 a.m. period is tough even during a megastorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anti1clint Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Good afternoon everyone......I enjoy reading the scientific background information that many of you give, but I don't like the way some of you rip someone to shreds if you don't like/believe their forecsting ideas. Justin Berk is an excellent meteorologist, and although I don't agree with him on this upcoming storm system, I'm not going to bash him or anyone else who sees something that we may not. After every major storm system, he asks for a "grade" on how well he performed. Why don't you wait until after the storm....Who knows....Maybe you'll have to eat crow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 We all know changeover's almost never work out around here, so it is highly unlikely unless things change that we have any snow that actually sticks to the ground. If the Euro looks like the 0z last night i think we are toast. The ull might do something but I'm kinda bummed the 850 looks to whiff at this point. We really needed both of them to work in our favor. The latest nam and gfs took some wind out of my sails with the move west @ 850. I agree with you on the euro. If the 850 passes warm and west then that's probably all she wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Good afternoon everyone......I enjoy reading the scientific background information that many of you give, but I don't like the way some of you rip someone to shreds if you don't like/believe their forecsting ideas. Justin Berk is an excellent meteorologist, and although I don't agree with him on this upcoming storm system, I'm not going to bash him or anyone else who sees something that we may not. After every major storm system, he asks for a "grade" on how well he performed. Why don't you wait until after the storm....Who knows....Maybe you'll have to eat crow! i dont think anyone has said anything that terrible--we call eachother weenies all the time here. if you're a local met there's a damn good shot your forecast will be discussed here in some fashion.. especially if you go out of your way to claim that you were the first on the storm and continue to understand it better than others etc. his forecast could very well be right, but you gotta wonder at least a little how much messaging is targetted at an audience you want to reshare your stuff and get your more followers with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 no.. some random facebook dude -- hoping i annoy him here so he'll speak up. https://www.facebook...75673475&type=1 According to another rando on that page, we're bitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 According to another rando on that page, we're bitter. i know i am.. dc is a snow hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Good afternoon everyone......I enjoy reading the scientific background information that many of you give, but I don't like the way some of you rip someone to shreds if you don't like/believe their forecsting ideas. Justin Berk is an excellent meteorologist, and although I don't agree with him on this upcoming storm system, I'm not going to bash him or anyone else who sees something that we may not. After every major storm system, he asks for a "grade" on how well he performed. Why don't you wait until after the storm....Who knows....Maybe you'll have to eat crow! Not sure anybody here is "ripping" Justin to shreds. Justin posts here...the staff likes him and has no problem with him. We already acknowledge that he's a good met, so I'm not sure what your point is? Some here simply believe he is reading too much into the GFS...it's an opinion. And trust me, I hope Justin is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 According to another rando on that page, we're bitter. I am very bitter, after last winter and now probably not getting much when we have over 2 inches of QPF sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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