nw baltimore wx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looking over those snow maps, I never thought I'd see the day where this forum would be the voice of reason. I forgot to add the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 all I can say is Justin Berk would have been better served looking at the soundings and not those maps at 39 hrs, it's clearly all rain at BWI and by 42 hrs they are marginal wet snow after 42 hrs, the precip is essentially over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I hope he is right because i am in the 3 inch area now. Not sure what would make him change, but he knows a hell of a lot more than i do so maybe he is right. id be surprised if we got 1"+ here but i guess it would not be terribly impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 so I am assuming the Euro is nothing great or it would have been posted here by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 so I am assuming the Euro is nothing great or it would have been posted here by now looks like last night's but warmer initially.. at least at first glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Alan Auglis' take... givin the southern areas some love as well: boy would i take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 so I am assuming the Euro is nothing great or it would have been posted here by now warm for I95 rain all the way to boston 2"+ all along I95 still looks to be a change over but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 warm for I95 rain all the way to boston 2"+ all along I95 still looks to be a change over but not much at least no more lost sleep than a usual night then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i would guess maybe .2" as snow or so on the euro.. .5"+ in the whole panel at 42 but prob more than half is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 DT's still bullish on the storm: http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/1STCALL.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 warm for I95 rain all the way to boston 2"+ all along I95 still looks to be a change over but not much 850 low track similar to the gfs? It's a shame if it is. Why do the subtle shifts go the wrong way more often do the right way? Is this a rhetorical question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 DT probably should have stuck to his original call. Not sure why he came southeast a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 hmm dt came southeast.. not sure why http://www.wxrisk.co.../12/1STCALL.jpg Crap, In my write-up I linked to him an said I liked his forecast, now it's different. That will teach me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 DT's still bullish on the storm: http://www.wxrisk.co.../12/1STCALL.jpg isnt this is 3rd 1st call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Crap, In my write-up I linked to him an said I liked his forecast, now it's different. That will teach me. his original call definitely seemed better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Crap, In my write-up I linked to him an said I liked his forecast, now it's different. That will teach me. Im in the 4-8 LOL...i think i can get 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 DT probably should have stuck to his original call. Not sure why he came southeast a bit. usually our winters have mountain highs and valley lows...hope you like the valley this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The Euro doesn't look terrible to me, a quater inch of frozen QPF just outside the NW beltway? I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 usually our winters have mountain highs and valley lows...hope you like the valley this year Already set up a camp in the lowest of low valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Everybody has my area in the bulls eye on their forecast maps. And for the most part pretty bullish totals. NAM has consistently supported that, but GFS hasn't budged in saying no accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 DT probably should have stuck to his original call. Not sure why he came southeast a bit. Yeah, don't get why he went higher, with snow more south and east on the first call map, especially because his own writeup associated with the first call map argues otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If anyone has or can get the Euro total snow map, please post. I know I've seen those posted before (I think), but I don't know where they come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If anyone has or can get the Euro total snow map, please post. I know I've seen those posted before (I think), but I don't know where they come from. Try Wunderground, my right clicker is blown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah, don't get why he went higher, with snow more south and east on the first call map, especially because his own writeup associated with the first call map argues otherwise. Might have something to do with actually applying the science and not just gawking at a map produced by a computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Try Wunderground, my right clicker is blown. I've never seen a total snow map there. Maybe I'm just missing it. I don't put any faith in the map itself, but use them to compare from model to model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Might have something to do with actually applying the science and not just gawking at a map produced by a computer. I thought that the reason the computer program that made the map was designed was to apply the science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If anyone has or can get the Euro total snow map, please post. I know I've seen those posted before (I think), but I don't know where they come from. Here ya go: the only two ECMWF panels that show snow accumulating, hrs. 39 and 42 ] EDIT_ Oops cut off the scale: Lightest shade of blue is 2-3" in 3 hours. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Select MODEL DATA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I thought the reason the computer program that made the map was designed to apply the science. I don't think Yeoman has actually added to the conversation in a few years here so don't worry about him too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Alan Auglis' take... givin the southern areas some love as well: This was done by our morning guy. I agree with most of it...maybe not quite as much to the S&E, but its ok for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 FWIW URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 145 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011 VAZ025>027-WVZ050-055-070245- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0007.111208T0000Z-111208T0600Z/ AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-HAMPSHIRE-HARDY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG... MOOREFIELD 145 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 1500 FEET. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEYS. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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