mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 06z RGEM tried at least http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_048.jpg http://www.weatherof...st/3285_100.gif it's actually very similar to the NAM tons of qpf and the last 10%+/- is likely snow (note the higher 7H RH at 48 hrs with the 540 line to the east of DCA/BWI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 seems like last year we had the temps but no storms...this year we have the storms but no temps....what a disaster place to live if your a snow lover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 it's actually very similar to the NAM tons of qpf and the last 10%+/- is likely snow (note the higher 7H RH at 48 hrs with the 540 line to the east of DCA/BWI) Yeah, an inch or so (hopefully more, but meh) would be nice on the grass and such Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Long time until tomorrow night. Lots can happen. I'm going to venture a wag that the DC-Balt area does much better this time than with October. LWX was planning a WSW for BR and west, but held off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I have so many things to say back but we are in a weather forum . The one good thing about this storm is it seems we do ok here recently when we need only small shifts here or there to get more than expected. Although deep down i don't expect anything, i would not be shocked if we get a surprise 4 or 5 incher. TWSS? Seriously I think you might be right on this. It seems like another one of those "all or nothing" type storms, but at least it's SOMETHING to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 ill take 2" Which I said was our max potential in a perfect set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Which I said was our max potential in a perfect set up. our max is almost always higher than that in a dynamic set up. you never know.... and you definitely ran to 2". just own it. could still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 it's actually very similar to the NAM tons of qpf and the last 10%+/- is likely snow (note the higher 7H RH at 48 hrs with the 540 line to the east of DCA/BWI) I'm surprised to see the RGEM for once in line with the NAM/Euro, usually they're warmer by a noticable margin. Hoping it isn't a sign of consensus...not comfortable with my location for this one, can't get to G-town this time so not expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I know we won't that much snow... just wondering if the two have some similarities at least They were similar in that both featured a very favorable H5 track for our area and both had very marginal if not hostile surface temps initially. The difference this time, however, is the temps are even warmer to start this time, and the January event was marginal to begin with. Plus the surface low is taking a slightly further inside track and is not amplifying as quickly this time. Those factors limit this significantly compared to the January system. Now on the plus side, an H5 track like this leaves the door open for some fun. Its hard for the models to pin down but it would not take much with the H5/H7 tracks currently predicted to get a quick few hour burst of very heavy snow across the area as the upper dynamics pass. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 LWX was planning a WSW for BR and west, but held off Probably a good thing. But the tone of their message was a good one for areas west of the BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Taking a look at NAM soundings. By 3z Thursday, IAD and JYO are over to snow (and probably a bit before that). Ditto for areas like PSUHoffmann-town near the M/D line. For folks closer to the 95 corridor, it's still rain...but NOT by much. Profile is basically isothermal at 0.5-1C from about 750-950mb. Still warmer at the surface, probably upper 30s. By 6z everyone's over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z RGEM looks a bit better I would guess... probably along the lines of the 12z NAM but I would say a smidge better. 36 the dashed line is just west of the mts and 48 its way east of I-95. Wish we had a 42 hr map. 10 mm is around 0.4" QPF BTW http://www.weatherof...ast/593_100.gif -- 36 http://www.weatherof...ast/600_100.gif -- 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 So funny to hear us clamoring over a few inches (at best). My how times have changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 So funny to hear us clamoring over a few inches (at best). My how times have changed. pretty typical for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 So funny to hear us clamoring over a few inches (at best). My how times have changed. This is the norm here. When there is bare ground, a few inches of snow is always a big deal for weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 our max is almost always higher than that in a dynamic set up. you never know.... and you definitely ran to 2". just own it. could still happen. Yea, I did say 1 to 2 inches for the city, what's your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This is the norm here. When there is bare ground, a few inches of snow is always a big deal for weenies. pretty typical for this area Understand completely... I'm just as desperate. I live in Annapolis so have little hope to see more than a coating on the grass. Good luck to those north of Baltimore. This pattern blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This is one of those times I despise living next to the Potomac, accums are always lower locally. 12/5/09 gave some spotty 1/2" accums on the grass here, but literally 1 mile to the east everything was covered in 2" of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 So funny to hear us clamoring over a few inches (at best). My how times have changed. In what way have they changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yea, I did say 1 to 2 inches for the city, what's your point? nothing really.. that's all i said in the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This is one of those times I despise living next to the Potomac, accums are always lower locally. 12/5/09 gave some spotty 1/2" accums on the grass here, but literally 1 mile to the easter everything was covered in 2" of wet snow. When is there a good time to live next to the potomac? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z RGEM looks a bit better I would guess... probably along the lines of the 12z NAM but I would say a smidge better. 36 the dashed line is just west of the mts and 48 its way east of I-95. Wish we had a 42 hr map. 10 mm is around 0.4" QPF BTW http://www.weatherof...ast/593_100.gif -- 36 http://www.weatherof...ast/600_100.gif -- 48 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Well nevermind then, RGEM is rain. Analysis ftl At least the 12z GFS is here to save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 for mby, NAM changes me over to snow between the hours of 40 and 41 actually, a pretty substantial drop in temps between 39 and 40 hrs 1F degree colder will make a huge, huge difference; exponential snow differences colder than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 In what way have they changed? Ehh.. I suppose over the course of our lifetimes it hasn't. You got me there. 2009-2010 was so ridiculous that it spoiled us err .. me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 When is there a good time to live next to the potomac? I don't mind during the summer season, usually it's cooler by 3-4 degrees versus downtown bethesda. Also the view to the West is totally epic, can see at least 5 miles unobstructed. Perfect sunset watchin' and cuban cigar smokin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I have been looking at a lot of forecasts from NWS up and down the east coast and it just doesn't look like this is going to be a big event anywhere. The reason? Surface temps for the most part aren't going to go below freezing during this storm. With that taken into account and given the fact that it will only snow at the very most 5-6 hours in any one location it makes sense to forecast a non-event for the most part. One of the big problems with this storm is that it is booking. I mean in 3 hours the precip shield will go from south of us to NYC and then to maine and then bye bye. I would have thought that areas to our west would be all snow given the 850's crashing but even out there it's forecasted to only snow for a couple hours. That's why I think that it will snow but it won't snow long enough for any real measurable accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Getting on a train in Baltimore at 5:30 am on Thursday and heading to NYC for the day for meetings. Perhaps some wet flakes as I head the train station and while I am in NYC. That would be kinda cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wow... h5 at 24 on 12z GFS is in SW LA. Its really digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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