MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It may be snowing AT 6z there, but I'm willing to bet most of that QPF is of the liquid variety. Yeah, the changeover looks to be between 04z and 05z, which doesn't leave a ton of precip left after that. Cool evolution at 975mb. You can really see the temps cool, and then rebound once the precip is finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 yep, west is the place to be for this one congrats JI, Leesburg and Dave I think we all sort of knew that going in. Won't take much for us, but I don't believe this is ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 90% of that is rain along I95 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F06%2F2011+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=048&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think we all sort of new that going in. Won't take much for us, but I don't believe this is ours. not me, I'm a blockhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hmm? Its open at 42 SE of DCA on my maps (just E of RIC) Looking at Raleighs site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 damn it'd take so little to turn this into something much more exciting. If the progged speed of the shortwave could slow down just a tad in relation to the trough digging from the Midwest we'd be game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 a changeover 3 hours earlier than currently progged would make a huge difference and probably result in 4-6" for everyone there's time, but admittedly, chances don't look great Randy, you feeling like it's 1/24/00 all over again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Big rates at 39... -15 UVVs over much of the LWX area Yeah - looks like a decent thump for a bit. Not overly exciting, but a hit of a little sumpin'-sumpin' nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 a changeover 3 hours earlier than currently progged would make a huge difference and probably result in 4-6" for everyone there's time, but admittedly, chances don't look great Randy, you feeling like it's 1/24/00 all over again? When we need A + B / C to get a storm, it rarely works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 a changeover 3 hours earlier than currently progged would make a huge difference and probably result in 4-6" for everyone there's time, but admittedly, chances don't look great Randy, you feeling like it's 1/24/00 all over again? Wasnt the January storm from earlier this year kind of like this? Too warm, but just barely to start out and as we got closer in it got just cold enough for that pasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wasnt the January storm from earlier this year kind of like this? Too warm, but just barely to start out and as we got closer in it got just cold enough for that pasting? Yes it sure was, but if i remember correctly it was a different setup. I got 14 inches from the morning and the evening part of that storm. Even if everything works out perfectly we will not even get close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wasnt the January storm from earlier this year kind of like this? Too warm, but just barely to start out and as we got closer in it got just cold enough for that pasting? yeah, that's sort of what I was thinking although there seems to be a "tendency" to get things colder with each run, we are almost hitting a brick wall plus the fact that I have lost all patience in my old age with these kind of systems doesn't help regardless, I'm holding out hope there is still time for something bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yes it sure was, but if i remember correctly it was a different setup. I got 14 inches from the morning and the evening part of that storm. Even if everything works out perfectly we will not even get close to that. I know we won't that much snow... just wondering if the two have some similarities at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 When we need A + B / C to get a storm, it rarely works. now you're sounding like me keep the faith until I tell you to bail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 yeah, that's sort of what I was thinking although there seems to be a "tendency" to get things colder with each run, we are almost hitting a brick wall plus the fact that I have lost all patience in my old age with these kind of systems doesn't help regardless, I'm holding out hope there is still time for something bigger The 12z GFS will save us It almost seems like the day models are bringing hope back and then the night models are taking it away. Right now, I am still holding the faith as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I know we won't that much snow... just wondering if the two have some similarities at least I think in that one we had a weak HP in canada though bleeding down some cold air. Correct me if i am wrong Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yes it sure was, but if i remember correctly it was a different setup. I got 14 inches from the morning and the evening part of that storm. Even if everything works out perfectly we will not even get close to that. I think if you're just north of Baltimore, the best case scenario is 4" or so. Much more likely would be 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think if you're just north of Baltimore, the best case scenario is 4" or so. Much more likely would be 1". Agreed, if i get 2 inches from this i will be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Agreed, if i get 2 inches from this i will be thrilled. you know my wife? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Agreed, if i get 2 inches from this i will be thrilled. As Justin Berk would say....HAVE FAITH IN THE FLAKES.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 next Blasphemy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 next thats the problem..there is no next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think we all sort of knew that going in. Won't take much for us, but I don't believe this is ours. ill take 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 thats the problem..there is no next sun angle starts increasing soon. january will be rockin'. if it snows at 3 a.m. and im asleep did it really snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 i think as the ULL Passes through, we will all get a period of thump.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 thats the problem..there is no next January's gonna be rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 you know my wife? I have so many things to say back but we are in a weather forum . The one good thing about this storm is it seems we do ok here recently when we need only small shifts here or there to get more than expected. Although deep down i don't expect anything, i would not be shocked if we get a surprise 4 or 5 incher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 06z RGEM tried at least http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/06_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3285_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Long time until tomorrow night. Lots can happen. I'm going to venture a wag that the DC-Balt area does much better this time than with October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.