SNO Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Things aren't looking promising for more than some wet flakes in the air on the backside of a cold rain early on Thursday morning - at least not in this neck of the woods. Certainly not worth staying up/getting up early for. Surprises can happen, but, after the initial good vibes of a day or so ago, it's feeling less and less likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Things aren't looking promising for more than some wet flakes in the air on the backside of a cold rain early on Thursday morning - at least not in this neck of the woods. Certainly not worth staying up/getting up early for. Surprises can happen, but, after the initial good vibes of a day or so ago, it's feeling less and less likely now. My vibes havent changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 There are going to be a lot of disappointed weenies...that includes Justin Berk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 euro is meh doesnt put the kibosh on the whole thing but much more unfavorable for the cities than the 12z run....oh well The 06Z GFS is pretty meh too, it only gives around 0.2 inches compared to the nam 3.7 at DCA assuming a 10 to 1 ratio which for sure is wrong. The 03Z SREF members had no members giving dc snow. That's probably why HPC is so low with the pops for 1". I'll be writing an article later this morning so I need to limit my posts to banter this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 My vibes havent changed Didn't feel good to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 There are going to be a lot of disappointed weenies...that includes Justin Berk. This board seems pretty realistic. Not sure who you are talking about with regard to this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think DT's map is the best right now. Kinda down on this event now after the latest set of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think DT's map is the best right now. Kinda down on this event now after the latest set of runs. Hostile pattern, early Dec, marginal temps. Odds were low to begin with so lets just see what happens. 12z will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hostile pattern, early Dec, marginal temps. Odds were low to begin with so lets just see what happens. 12z will save us. Glad you are positive and optimistic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I have to say that after seeing the late night runs, I am less optimistic now than I was. That can change of course, but just seems very iffy right now. I guess the balmy temps this morning aren't helping my snow mood any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 For what it's worth the NAM is a little quicker with the trough and brings the PV a little farther south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hostile pattern, early Dec, marginal temps. Odds were low to begin with so lets just see what happens. 12z will save us. which is why I find this map so frustrating http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=te&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 For what it's worth the NAM is a little quicker with the trough and brings the PV a little farther south and east. More amped it sounds. I'm on my iPhone getting ready for a tree job so hope someone can perform the play by play commentary. Me not being able to see the models might be a good thing for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 39 strong h5 vort is in C NC... this could be close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 39 h5 is in C NC... this could be close... it's gunna' be close, no doubt, that's why it's so dang frustrating we need oh so little to turn this into something much bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 it's gunna' be close, no doubt, that's why it's so dang frustrating we need oh so little to turn this into something much bigger 42 is NW of Norfolk, but looks like just east of RIC. I t will pass to our SE by 50-100 miles I believe 850 map at 42 has DCA/BWI -2c... IAD is likely -3c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Weenie snowmap says congrats Leesburg. 6-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 More amped it sounds. I'm on my iPhone getting ready for a tree job so hope someone can perform the play by play commentary. Me not being able to see the models might be a good thing for everyone Hmm, kinky. Anyway, not sure about amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 42 is NW of Norfolk, but looks like just east of RIC. I t will pass to our SE by 50-100 miles I believe still time NAM is far from perfect even at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 More amped it sounds. I'm on my iPhone getting ready for a tree job so hope someone can perform the play by play commentary. Me not being able to see the models might be a good thing for everyone Actually pretty similar up to 36 so far just a tad quicker with the trough. Maybe a little more amped, has the surface low at 1001 instead of 1002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Justin Berk's Snow Map: http://www.abc2news....hursday-morning His snow forecasts are always overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Definitely snowing at 06z on the NAM. Came around to the Euro's time of day, but kept the couple of hours of snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Big rates at 39... -15 UVVs over much of the LWX area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Definitely snowing at 06z on the NAM. Came around to the Euro's time of day, but kept the couple of hours of snow at the end. It may be snowing AT 6z there, but I'm willing to bet most of that QPF is of the liquid variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Closed off at the 500's just southwest of DC at the 42hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Definitely snowing at 06z on the NAM. Came around to the Euro's time of day, but kept the couple of hours of snow at the end. and this is what falls after 6Z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20111206%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_precip_p03.gif&fcast=042&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p03&cycle=12%2F06%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Closed off at the 500's just southwest of DC. Hmm? Its open at 42 SE of DCA on my maps (just E of RIC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 I dont hate the NAM for Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I dont hate the NAM for Leesburg yep, west is the place to be for this one congrats JI, Leesburg and Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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