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FAILDC#


Ji

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ya..the Dec 19 and Feb 5 storm of 09-10 right? we all knew Feb storm would be 20 plus inches a week out

It was about 2 days out in both big storms that things really ratcheted up. We knew it was going to snow and probably a lot but as usual in a larger event it was catchup till it started at least. I don't know if it's a DC area thing or common everywhere. I do think the 'public' is more forgiving with an underforecast (at least within reason) than an overforecast when it comes to snow accum. I'm only on the fringe of it all but I dislike numbers almost entirely until you're forced by time constraints.

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It was about 2 days out in both big storms that things really ratcheted up. We knew it was going to snow and probably a lot but as usual in a larger event it was catchup till it started at least. I don't know if it's a DC area thing or common everywhere. I do think the 'public' is more forgiving with an underforecast (at least within reason) than an overforecast when it comes to snow accum. I'm only on the fringe of it all but I dislike numbers almost entirely until you're forced by time constraints.

i remember the euro had multiple runs(6-8 in a row) with 1.5 to 2.5 inches of qpf for our area all snow...along with every other model. That one was pretty much a gimme all week...

the dec 19 storm had more doubts

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gwg--one hour ago...that makes it sound like were getting flurries

Snow potential index: 3 (↑) After Wed rain, some flakes may fly early Thurs AM. Getting accumulation will be tough.

I think it's tough to have these daily numbers that are done by different forecasters every day etc. When I choose one I always consider where it was prior and such.. So if it was a 1 and goes to a 5 in one day is that too much a jump etc? I think they are supposed to be fun as much as something to focus on so heavily. My .02 at least.
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i remember the euro had multiple runs(6-8 in a row) with 1.5 to 2.5 inches of qpf for our area all snow...along with every other model. That one was pretty much a gimme all week...

the dec 19 storm had more doubts

In some ways yes. Temps were an issue on Feb 5-6 tho moreso. We sorta lucked out there with almost no mixing at all. Still it was hard to buy at day 4.

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I think it's tough to have these daily numbers that are done by different forecasters every day etc. When I choose one I always consider where it was prior and such.. So if it was a 1 and goes to a 5 in one day is that too much a jump etc? I think they are supposed to be fun as much as something to focus on so heavily. My .02 at least.

I like the use of the snow potential index, but should it have been used last Friday for a storm 1 week out?

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06 Z Nam is winding up the storm a little more as well and looks to have a very slight adjustment N + W. For what it's worth the Nam even looks a little wetter then the 00Z as well a touch colder with the surface temps. Short of actually getting the precip rates that it is being depicted, which the NAM always seems to overdo, with the surface temps I think best case scenario with this run is maybe a slushy inch or so in the N+W suburbs.

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6z runs show plenty of stuff falling from the sky. I like it. 2" @ DCA.

Shame that it looks as if the temps won't cooperate though. Even the NAM's colder temps, which is probably better to follow then the GFS, comes up short when it comes to the surface temps. 2 or 3 degrees colder and we are probably looking at a decent storm all the way into the cities. As is the best case scenario at this point is probably an Oct repeat which I have some serious doubts on as well.

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checking soundings for mby, I ain't any more impressed w/6z than prior runs

the realization that this will be at best a "meh" event is setting in

Are they that bad? Didn't bother looking at soundings just did a general look at the thicknesses on the NAM and assumed they weren't that bad with the biggest hangup being the surface.

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The clown maps for the 06Z GFS ensembles show that most members are very bullish on a decent snowfall especially north and west of the cities. Looks like they are wrapping the precip farther north and west from the low giving the cold air a chance to bleed in. Lets see if they lead the way for the 12Z op.

we need the cold air to get involved sooner into the event, so the vort needs to slow or the cold needs to bleed faster

right now, the only thing cooling the atmosphere are the dynamics which means heavy precip is wasted on the cooling process

at this point, things will have to change some to at least insure us all a couple inches, which is all I'm hoping for

the good thing is, there is still time; the bad news is, there is time to go bad too, but the trend doesn't suggest to me that is going to happen

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The clown maps for the 06Z GFS ensembles show that most members are very bullish on a decent snowfall especially north and west of the cities. Looks like they are wrapping the precip farther north and west from the low giving the cold air a chance to bleed in. Lets see if they lead the way for the 12Z op.

If I may ask, where do you find those clown maps?

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http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html

You can find it up on the model tab of this site as well.

You need to search for it but most give you the snowfall option.

Snow maps should only be used for a very, very rough estimation, but be careful with the GEFS snowfall maps, especially at this time range when were starting to look at details. The resolution is quite low, spreading out the precip quite a bit.

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we need the cold air to get involved sooner into the event, so the vort needs to slow or the cold needs to bleed faster

right now, the only thing cooling the atmosphere are the dynamics which means heavy precip is wasted on the cooling process

at this point, things will have to change some to at least insure us all a couple inches, which is all I'm hoping for

the good thing is, there is still time; the bad news is, there is time to go bad too, but the trend doesn't suggest to me that is going to happen

Agreed. But with the GFS's habit of underplaying the precip field to the N+W until we get within 36-48 hours or so you have to like the chances for the Op to follow suit with the ensemble which would be a plus to snow chances giving a heavier and a longer duration event into the colder air.

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Snow maps should only be used for a very, very rough estimation, but be careful with the GEFS snowfall maps, especially at this time range when were starting to look at details. The resolution is quite low, spreading out the precip quite a bit.

You didn't catch my edit. :)

They are mostly just eye candy to satisfy the weenie in me. But realistically I look at them and depending on the situation will cut their total by a 1/3 to a half. The one thing I do like about them though is they can give you a general idea of the cutoff between the rain and snow line.

Edit: In the case of the ensembles I take them even less seriously and basically am only looking for possible trends with which the Op may follow. Of course at this time range we are probably better off looking at the NAM and other short range models as opposed to the GFS anyway.

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