Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 surface temps on GFS don't look great at all looking at the ncep maps.....when you can get them to load that is im kinda underwhelmed.. it looks ok. matt's being a weenie for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That's mainstream! Thats not more mainstream than the UKIE/RGEM. You know that. Anyway, if Zwyts likes the GFS, then it must be really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 surface temps on GFS don't look great at all looking at the ncep maps.....when you can get them to load that is Nam much colder at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The GFS is holding steady. I'll take the GFS track with the NAM precip totals, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The GFS is holding steady. I'll take the GFS track with the NAM precip totals, thank you. it's about time to only look at the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS is good, looks to give me about 0.5" QPF as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 it's about time to only look at the euro Well, the GFS had it first, so you have to give it some input. But yeah, the Euro run will either up or drop the confidence level. I wonder if it still manages to come more north and west over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 im kinda underwhelmed.. it looks ok. matt's being a weenie for this storm. It depends how much Qpf we waste between 48 and 51....still looking at a 1-3" event based on this run..were you hoping for a 6" event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Nam much colder at surface that's because NAM bombs over us GFS has max precip shield east and south of us both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It depends how much Qpf we waste between 48 and 51....still looking at a 1-3" event based on this run..were you hoping for a 6" event? 6-12".. i think we've got just enough elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Well, the GFS had it first, so you have to give it some input. But yeah, the Euro run will either up or drop the confidence level. I wonder if it still manages to come more north and west over the next couple of days. if the Euro gets stronger like all the models seem to want to do (though I haven;t seen the rgem, ggem or ukie and am waiting for Ian to post some links) we may do much better than we're thinking now....or worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thats not more mainstream than the UKIE/RGEM. You know that. Anyway, if Zwyts likes the GFS, then it must be really good I only looked at MBY...depends when we change over, but 1-2" for me I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 if the Euro gets stronger like all the models seem to want to do (though I haven;t seen the rgem, ggem or ukie and am waiting for Ian to post some links) we may do much better than we're thinking now....or worse the euro was already really wet at 12z .. the really heavy precip will be where it doesnt snow at all or a flake mixes in at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 if the Euro gets stronger like all the models seem to want to do (though I haven;t seen the rgem, ggem or ukie and am waiting for Ian to post some links) we may do much better than we're thinking now....or worse Bye mitch lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 6-12".. i think we've got just enough elevation. No reason we can't muscle a 1.5" event here that gives DCA 0.8". I dont care about the pattern. Before the KU era, we used to get a lot of 2-4"/1-3" events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 No reason we can't muscle a 1.5" event here that gives DCA 0.8". I dont care about the pattern. Before the KU era, we used to get a lot of 2-4"/1-3" events If we can squeeze out a couple of inches from this out here then that should put us at or near normal for the season...I'll take that in a crap pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Cwg is retarted. How can the snow index be 3 when it's going to snow. It's like the idiot who gave a 91 degree day a 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 No reason we can't muscle a 1.5" event here that gives DCA 0.8". I dont care about the pattern. Before the KU era, we used to get a lot of 2-4"/1-3" events could be. i'd lean low for now still -- we did not get enough heavy snow on the back end in oct that it would have a much different outcome today in the dark. i dont think people need to put out numbers till tomorrow unless it's for recording purposes (said it first) etc. lotsa time still, really only need a "more accum here" and "less here" zone idea for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 if the Euro gets stronger like all the models seem to want to do (though I haven;t seen the rgem, ggem or ukie and am waiting for Ian to post some links) we may do much better than we're thinking now....or worse If it's more amped with the potent ULL doing the thumping maybe a track slightly to the NW of 12z wouldn't matter much? It seems the recent runs speeding up the shortwave and individualizing the ULL slightly tended to change over quicker on the backside with heavier QPF, though warmer initially so there might be a threshold somewhere. I'd be nervous having the 850 low track any further NW than the Euro had progged at 12z but if it indirectly meant more ULL sex the risk might be worth it IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm going 3-5 slushy inches for Leesburg. Snow index is a 3 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm going 3-5 slushy inches for Leesburg. Snow index is a 3 though Ian must have told them...check facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm going 3-5 slushy inches for Leesburg. Snow index is a 3 though i think other than 09-10 (and even then as well) forecasters have to always 'trail' the models significantly. has there ever been a big snowstorm where people nailed it exactly 2-4 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 1 to 2 inches for the city. Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 could be. i'd lean low for now still -- we did not get enough heavy snow on the back end in oct that it would have a much different outcome today in the dark. i dont think people need to put out numbers till tomorrow unless it's for recording purposes (said it first) etc. lotsa time still, really only need a "more accum here" and "less here" zone idea for now. Agreed. It could totally fizzle out. Ill be up for the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If it's more amped with the potent ULL doing the thumping maybe a track slightly to the NW of 12z wouldn't matter much? It seems the recent runs speeding up the shortwave and individualizing the ULL slightly tended to change over quicker on the backside with heavier QPF, though warmer initially so there might be a threshold somewhere. I'd be nervous having the 850 low track any further NW than the Euro had progged at 12z but if it indirectly meant more ULL sex the risk might be worth it IMO. there wasnt one on the 00z NAM or GFS, so will be interesting to see if the EURO keeps it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Agreed. It could totally fizzle out. Ill be up for the euro i wont.. im already up later than hoped! godspeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 1 to 2 inches for the city. Bank on it. Bold call. I still do fear a last minute north shift that could happen as late as tomorrow evening or night, and put a lot of us out of the game. I-95 is walking a very fine line as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 i think other than 09-10 (and even then as well) forecasters have to always 'trail' the models significantly. has there ever been a big snowstorm where people nailed it exactly 2-4 days out? ya..the Dec 19 and Feb 5 storm of 09-10 right? we all knew Feb storm would be 20 plus inches a week out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 i wont.. im already up later than hoped! godspeed. winter sucks...you stay up for 185 plus hours for 11 inches of snow. good hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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