Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

FAILDC#


Ji

Recommended Posts

surface temps on GFS don't look great at all looking at the ncep maps.....when you can get them to load that is

im kinda underwhelmed.. it looks ok. matt's being a weenie for this storm. :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It depends how much Qpf we waste between 48 and 51....still looking at a 1-3" event based on this run..were you hoping for a 6" event?

6-12".. i think we've got just enough elevation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, the GFS had it first, so you have to give it some input. But yeah, the Euro run will either up or drop the confidence level.

I wonder if it still manages to come more north and west over the next couple of days.

if the Euro gets stronger like all the models seem to want to do (though I haven;t seen the rgem, ggem or ukie and am waiting for Ian to post some links) we may do much better than we're thinking now....or worse

Link to comment
Share on other sites

if the Euro gets stronger like all the models seem to want to do (though I haven;t seen the rgem, ggem or ukie and am waiting for Ian to post some links) we may do much better than we're thinking now....or worse

the euro was already really wet at 12z .. the really heavy precip will be where it doesnt snow at all or a flake mixes in at the end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No reason we can't muscle a 1.5" event here that gives DCA 0.8". I dont care about the pattern. Before the KU era, we used to get a lot of 2-4"/1-3" events

If we can squeeze out a couple of inches from this out here then that should put us at or near normal for the season...I'll take that in a crap pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No reason we can't muscle a 1.5" event here that gives DCA 0.8". I dont care about the pattern. Before the KU era, we used to get a lot of 2-4"/1-3" events

could be. i'd lean low for now still -- we did not get enough heavy snow on the back end in oct that it would have a much different outcome today in the dark. i dont think people need to put out numbers till tomorrow unless it's for recording purposes (said it first) etc. lotsa time still, really only need a "more accum here" and "less here" zone idea for now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

if the Euro gets stronger like all the models seem to want to do (though I haven;t seen the rgem, ggem or ukie and am waiting for Ian to post some links) we may do much better than we're thinking now....or worse

If it's more amped with the potent ULL doing the thumping maybe a track slightly to the NW of 12z wouldn't matter much? It seems the recent runs speeding up the shortwave and individualizing the ULL slightly tended to change over quicker on the backside with heavier QPF, though warmer initially so there might be a threshold somewhere. I'd be nervous having the 850 low track any further NW than the Euro had progged at 12z but if it indirectly meant more ULL sex the risk might be worth it IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going 3-5 slushy inches for Leesburg. Snow index is a 3 though

i think other than 09-10 (and even then as well) forecasters have to always 'trail' the models significantly. has there ever been a big snowstorm where people nailed it exactly 2-4 days out?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

could be. i'd lean low for now still -- we did not get enough heavy snow on the back end in oct that it would have a much different outcome today in the dark. i dont think people need to put out numbers till tomorrow unless it's for recording purposes (said it first) etc. lotsa time still, really only need a "more accum here" and "less here" zone idea for now.

Agreed. It could totally fizzle out. Ill be up for the euro

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If it's more amped with the potent ULL doing the thumping maybe a track slightly to the NW of 12z wouldn't matter much? It seems the recent runs speeding up the shortwave and individualizing the ULL slightly tended to change over quicker on the backside with heavier QPF, though warmer initially so there might be a threshold somewhere. I'd be nervous having the 850 low track any further NW than the Euro had progged at 12z but if it indirectly meant more ULL sex the risk might be worth it IMO.

there wasnt one on the 00z NAM or GFS, so will be interesting to see if the EURO keeps it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i think other than 09-10 (and even then as well) forecasters have to always 'trail' the models significantly. has there ever been a big snowstorm where people nailed it exactly 2-4 days out?

ya..the Dec 19 and Feb 5 storm of 09-10 right? we all knew Feb storm would be 20 plus inches a week out

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...