BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If it's heavy precip perhaps snow falling through above freezing sfc layer. We need a miracle shift E by 50-75mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 blow up the SE ridge a bit more and even I get snow it's an mrb winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i need to move northwest I did and so far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 i need to move northwest Northwest CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Juicy just like the nam always is. use the euro qpf.. still juicy but believable as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 yeah, nothing's in stone, but I'm getting that feeling that the thermometer says there won't be any miracles with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If it's heavy precip perhaps snow falling through above freezing sfc layer. We need a miracle shift E by 50-75mi Pretty much I-95 west gets snows here. Yeah, best chance of accum snows will be BR and west, but still, come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Northwest CT? too bad i like having power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Its gon snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 just like the nam always is. use the euro qpf.. still juicy but believable as well I know, but the the 18z UKIE looks pretty close to the 00z NAM QPFwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 just had to post 1 image. Hello there. darn shame the good ole' days weren't back when the 0-850 line was the major concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Pretty much I-95 west gets snows here. Yeah, best chance of accum snows will be BR and west, but still, come on Um ok? Not getting the vibe. Accums and sfc temps can be mutually exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I know, but the the 18z UKIE looks pretty close to the 00z NAM QPFwise who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 it's an mrb winter... Or Winchester. I don't feel very comfortable with the temps on this one. But, I didn't feel good about them in October either. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 we need it to slow down after 51 hrs It doesn't. However sometimes faster movement means better vertical motion and stronger rates. I think we broke even on 1/26 which was a 2hr whiteout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 NAM is about 12 hours of snow for the I81 corridor. Surface temps are iffy though. Night storm will help though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Or Winchester. I don't feel very comfortable with the temps on this one. But, I didn't feel good about them in October either. We'll see. yeah.. wv/va border area/81 corridor/elevation. not mby. if i get a changeover 2-4x as good as october i might still not even notice it.. no way im staying up all night for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thundersnow possible C/NC VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Friends went to Jefferson County for couple days. I missed my chance. Therefore, I will get plenty of rain and I will like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 sounding for mby at 54 hrs; almost .3" falls after 54 hrs. 1001. 70.E 1.2 0.5 330.9 7.2 1000. 78. 0.9 0.6 332.9 7.0 975. 281. 0.1 0.0 340.5 14.5 950. 489. -0.0 -0.0 353.8 18.9 925. 702. -0.3 -0.3 355.6 19.1 900. 922. -0.7 -0.7 354.6 17.2 875. 1147. -0.7 -0.7 353.8 15.0 850. 1378. -1.1 -1.2 355.4 12.7 825. 1616. -1.4 -1.5 352.8 9.2 800. 1862. -2.0 -2.2 349.2 6.5 775. 2113. -3.2 -3.4 19.8 4.7 750. 2373. -3.8 -4.0 106.6 2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Or Winchester. I don't feel very comfortable with the temps on this one. But, I didn't feel good about them in October either. We'll see. You look ok at this point in time, but I wouldnt worry about surface temps at this point yet. I feel better tonight than say on Oct 28, one of the NAM maps I saw had the surface 35 degrees line basically running NE to SW along the FFX and LoCo line, seeing you are 40 miles west of that and some elevation, you should do ok as of now. Not saying it will happen this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thundersnow possible C/NC VA? Thunder with rain, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Friends went to Jefferson County for couple days. I missed my chance. Therefore, I will get plenty of rain and I will like it We should get a little snow Jeb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 yeah.. wv/va border area/81 corridor/elevation. not mby. if i get a changeover 2-4x as good as october i might still not even notice it.. no way im staying up all night for that. You'd think that with heavy precip, better time of day, better time of year, less heat lying around in the ground, that you'd have a much easier time changing over this time around. Seems reasonable to me, but what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thinks thats the sharpest cutoff on the NW edge of the precip I've ever seen a model show. Death band right where it was 10/29. It never starts until north of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 it's an mrb winter... I don't think I had a rain-to-accumulating snow event in the first 4 winters I lived here. This could be the 5th or 6th one since January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 You'd think that with heavy precip, better time of day, better time of year, less heat lying around in the ground, that you'd have a much easier time changing over this time around. Seems reasonable to me, but what do I know? if the track is too close none of that matters much. that was a really really rare october day.. it put us more in a december pattern. this is not a great one for december. in some ways it's about equal footing around here it seems. i think there is perhaps more back end potential, but that's a multi-ingredient option so never really a sure bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 it's an mrb winter... and Trixie is going to miss it. As far as I can tell the surface temps stay about 35 at DCA through the event according to the NAM. Cold enough to snow and if it came down heavy enough, cold enough to stick on grass and car roofs, not on roads. IAD gets down to close to 33 and then the surface temp rises to around 34.5 or so by 09Z on the model. Not sure I understand that. The north and west suburbs with elevation should do pretty well according to the 00Z NAM. I'm not waiting for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 and Trixie is going to miss it. As far as I can tell the surface temps stay about 35 at DCA through the event according to the NAM. Cold enough to snow and if it came down heavy enough, cold enough to stick on grass and car roofs, not on roads. IAD gets down to close to 33 and then the surface temp rises to around 34.5 or so by 09Z on the model. Not sure I understand that. The north and west suburbs with elevation should do pretty well according to the 00Z NAM. I'm not waiting for the GFS. I just saw that on Earl Barkers site for JYO. Rises to 37* from 30* from Hr 60-66 then drops back at 72 to 32*. I am guessing due to the fact that the precip has stopped falling hence allowing temps to rise some. either way, that is really nitpicking this far out. I am off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I just saw that on Earl Barkers site for JYO. Rises to 37* from 30* from Hr 60-66 then drops back at 72 to 32*. I am guessing due to the fact that the precip has stopped falling hence allowing temps to rise some. either way, that is really nitpicking this far out. I am off to bed. I think your guess is pretty good. when the precip decreases the temps rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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