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Ji

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Or Winchester.

I don't feel very comfortable with the temps on this one. But, I didn't feel good about them in October either. We'll see.

yeah.. wv/va border area/81 corridor/elevation. not mby.

if i get a changeover 2-4x as good as october i might still not even notice it.. no way im staying up all night for that. ;)

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sounding for mby at 54 hrs; almost .3" falls after 54 hrs.

1001. 70.E 1.2 0.5 330.9 7.2

1000. 78. 0.9 0.6 332.9 7.0

975. 281. 0.1 0.0 340.5 14.5

950. 489. -0.0 -0.0 353.8 18.9

925. 702. -0.3 -0.3 355.6 19.1

900. 922. -0.7 -0.7 354.6 17.2

875. 1147. -0.7 -0.7 353.8 15.0

850. 1378. -1.1 -1.2 355.4 12.7

825. 1616. -1.4 -1.5 352.8 9.2

800. 1862. -2.0 -2.2 349.2 6.5

775. 2113. -3.2 -3.4 19.8 4.7

750. 2373. -3.8 -4.0 106.6 2.3

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Or Winchester.

I don't feel very comfortable with the temps on this one. But, I didn't feel good about them in October either. We'll see.

You look ok at this point in time, but I wouldnt worry about surface temps at this point yet. I feel better tonight than say on Oct 28, one of the NAM maps I saw had the surface 35 degrees line basically running NE to SW along the FFX and LoCo line, seeing you are 40 miles west of that and some elevation, you should do ok as of now. Not saying it will happen this way.

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yeah.. wv/va border area/81 corridor/elevation. not mby.

if i get a changeover 2-4x as good as october i might still not even notice it.. no way im staying up all night for that. ;)

You'd think that with heavy precip, better time of day, better time of year, less heat lying around in the ground, that you'd have a much easier time changing over this time around. Seems reasonable to me, but what do I know?

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You'd think that with heavy precip, better time of day, better time of year, less heat lying around in the ground, that you'd have a much easier time changing over this time around. Seems reasonable to me, but what do I know?

if the track is too close none of that matters much. that was a really really rare october day.. it put us more in a december pattern. this is not a great one for december. in some ways it's about equal footing around here it seems. i think there is perhaps more back end potential, but that's a multi-ingredient option so never really a sure bet.

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it's an mrb winter... ;)

and Trixie is going to miss it. As far as I can tell the surface temps stay about 35 at DCA through the event according to the NAM. Cold enough to snow and if it came down heavy enough, cold enough to stick on grass and car roofs, not on roads. IAD gets down to close to 33 and then the surface temp rises to around 34.5 or so by 09Z on the model. Not sure I understand that. The north and west suburbs with elevation should do pretty well according to the 00Z NAM. I'm not waiting for the GFS.

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and Trixie is going to miss it. As far as I can tell the surface temps stay about 35 at DCA through the event according to the NAM. Cold enough to snow and if it came down heavy enough, cold enough to stick on grass and car roofs, not on roads. IAD gets down to close to 33 and then the surface temp rises to around 34.5 or so by 09Z on the model. Not sure I understand that. The north and west suburbs with elevation should do pretty well according to the 00Z NAM. I'm not waiting for the GFS.

I just saw that on Earl Barkers site for JYO. Rises to 37* from 30* from Hr 60-66 then drops back at 72 to 32*. I am guessing due to the fact that the precip has stopped falling hence allowing temps to rise some. either way, that is really nitpicking this far out. I am off to bed.

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I just saw that on Earl Barkers site for JYO. Rises to 37* from 30* from Hr 60-66 then drops back at 72 to 32*. I am guessing due to the fact that the precip has stopped falling hence allowing temps to rise some. either way, that is really nitpicking this far out. I am off to bed.

I think your guess is pretty good. when the precip decreases the temps rise.

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