WVclimo Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 it's an mrb winter... I don't think I had a rain-to-accumulating snow event in the first 4 winters I lived here. This could be the 5th or 6th one since January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 You'd think that with heavy precip, better time of day, better time of year, less heat lying around in the ground, that you'd have a much easier time changing over this time around. Seems reasonable to me, but what do I know? if the track is too close none of that matters much. that was a really really rare october day.. it put us more in a december pattern. this is not a great one for december. in some ways it's about equal footing around here it seems. i think there is perhaps more back end potential, but that's a multi-ingredient option so never really a sure bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 it's an mrb winter... and Trixie is going to miss it. As far as I can tell the surface temps stay about 35 at DCA through the event according to the NAM. Cold enough to snow and if it came down heavy enough, cold enough to stick on grass and car roofs, not on roads. IAD gets down to close to 33 and then the surface temp rises to around 34.5 or so by 09Z on the model. Not sure I understand that. The north and west suburbs with elevation should do pretty well according to the 00Z NAM. I'm not waiting for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 and Trixie is going to miss it. As far as I can tell the surface temps stay about 35 at DCA through the event according to the NAM. Cold enough to snow and if it came down heavy enough, cold enough to stick on grass and car roofs, not on roads. IAD gets down to close to 33 and then the surface temp rises to around 34.5 or so by 09Z on the model. Not sure I understand that. The north and west suburbs with elevation should do pretty well according to the 00Z NAM. I'm not waiting for the GFS. I just saw that on Earl Barkers site for JYO. Rises to 37* from 30* from Hr 60-66 then drops back at 72 to 32*. I am guessing due to the fact that the precip has stopped falling hence allowing temps to rise some. either way, that is really nitpicking this far out. I am off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I just saw that on Earl Barkers site for JYO. Rises to 37* from 30* from Hr 60-66 then drops back at 72 to 32*. I am guessing due to the fact that the precip has stopped falling hence allowing temps to rise some. either way, that is really nitpicking this far out. I am off to bed. I think your guess is pretty good. when the precip decreases the temps rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think your guess is pretty good. when the precip decreases the temps rise. that doesn't even happen that much around here to that extent, relatively speaking, in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 sad to think we could get over 2" qpf, strong UVVs, and a near perfect storm track this time of year and be lucky to just eek out 1/10 of it as snow and that's not even a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 sad to think we could get over 2" qpf, strong UVVs, and a near perfect storm track this time of year and be lucky to just eek out 1/10 of it as snow and that's not even a lock we're not going to get over 2" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If Yoda posts about the "UKIE" one more time, I'm going to ban him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 we're not going to get over 2" qpf I know, I was strictly going by the NAM verbatim wait, I was supposed to be in the modelology class tonight, am I in the wrong chat room? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 sad to think we could get over 2" qpf, strong UVVs, and a near perfect storm track this time of year and be lucky to just eek out 1/10 of it as snow and that's not even a lock Gotta love the +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If Yoda posts about the "UKIE" one more time, I'm going to ban him. need to have an out...."unless it shows a blizzard" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS clearly more amped thru 30, faster as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 If Yoda posts about the "UKIE" one more time, I'm going to ban him. Rgem too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Rgem too rgem was great in 09/10, and didn't do bad last year either even though it wasn't out year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I know, I was strictly going by the NAM verbatim wait, I was supposed to be in the modelology class tonight, am I in the wrong chat room? just saying.. we don't get 2" qpf from a fast moving system or really any wintertime system usually. i thought it was like the 3rd rule in the weenie playbook that the nam overdoes precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Rgem too In 09 we were begging to see the RGEM. I see Mitch you beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 In 09 we were begging to see the RGEM. Rgem is the the Canadien nam..overamped warm and too wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I believe GFS will be better than 18z fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Rgem is the the Canadien nam..overamped warm and too wet Like MItch said the past 2 winters it has done very well. The Ukie is crap, but the Rgem has been pretty good. The Nam is usually to cold not to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Rgem too I didn't even post it in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Like MItch said the past 2 winters it has done very well. The Ukie is crap, but the Rgem has been pretty good. i dont think i've ever looked at the rgem other than when it's posted here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Sitting next to Matt at da bar....GFS...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 i dont think i've ever looked at the rgem other than when it's posted here If it wasnt for yoga...I would never see images of these obscure models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i dont think i've ever looked at the rgem other than when it's posted here It is not a mainstream model but if memory serves it was usually the first in 09/10 to sniff out the crazy qpf amounts we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i cant even get ncep to load the page. maybe this is a winter where everything trends good till the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS exactly the same track as Euro, perfect... and you know precip is underdone on the NW side, good run fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If it wasnt for yoga...I would never see images of these obscure models You also post obscure models lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If it wasnt for yoga...I would never see images of these obscure models Please... no one posts the JMA except you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Please... no one posts the JMA except you That's mainstream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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