Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 your profile says 60 degrees. Way to warm for snow..plus hot roads...terrible sun angle....bad pattern...hostile per ORH...not happening i hope Wes is really down on January.. might mean we get a hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wes and mitch...thanks for the feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i hope Wes is really down on January.. might mean we get a hecs I'm actually not as bearish in Jan as in dec which probably means it will be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 and I'm in San Francisco until Friday. If you were JI, you'd hop a flight home ASAP and then complain about the 5 or 6 inches you got. Actually, I'm not saying MRB will get that much but I do think it will snow there with a good cahnce of seeing some accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I would sacrifice Ian's right arm for a 1032 high in Quebec on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I would sacrifice Ian's right arm for a 1032 high in Quebec on Wednesday. I would tell you what i would sacrifice of Ian's but Midlo will just delete it so i won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 what is wrong with ncep man, I hate these new maps and the set up of the model page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 i hope Wes is really down on January.. might mean we get a hecs Wes should do more Washington Post articles on why the pattern is a nightmare for snowlovers 4 days before a potent december snowstorm comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 your profile says 60 degrees. Way to warm for snow..plus hot roads...terrible sun angle....bad pattern...hostile per ORH...not happening The overall pattern kind of is. Doesn't mean you can't sneak a storm like this in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Think 10/29 redux, only the temps and QPF line up a bit better for the changeover on the back-end: The upper-level vort. max is potent enough to create an area of strong dynamics along the back edge of the system, which will pull cooler air down to the surface and make it cool enough within the boundary layer for some accumulation as the coastal low forms and tracks northeastward. Some banding will allow for locally higher totals along the axis that has the greatest snowfall through the WV/VA mountains, south-central and eastern PA and northern NJ. I took the 12z Euro Op. solution and shifted the low center northwestward to account for for some model biases, which actually lines up fairly well with the 18z NAM after that adjustment. I believe the 12z and now 18z GFS solutions are too suppressed with this system given how strong the vort. max is. The snowfall totals could go up as the storm's track and QPF amounts get honed in on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I would sacrifice Ian's right arm for a 1032 high in Quebec on Wednesday. im a lefty.. i'd deal. I would tell you what i would sacrifice of Ian's but Midlo will just delete it so i won't. my nonsense posting is better than yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think GFS is more of the solution we want here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 im a lefty.. i'd deal. my nonsense posting is better than yours. Not likely, it is just that you can post whatever nonsense you want and not get in trouble. Myself on the other hand will get in to trouble so i censor most of the good stuff . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think GFS is more of the solution we want here. yeah, about a .25" more qpf than 12Z, but I'll reserve final judgment after I look at the soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Think 10/29 redux, only the temps and QPF line up a bit better for the changeover on the back-end: The upper-level vort. max is potent enough to create an area of strong dynamics along the back edge of the system, which will pull cooler air down to the surface and make it cool enough within the boundary layer for some accumulation as the coastal low forms and tracks northeastward. Some banding will allow for locally higher totals along the axis that has the greatest snowfall through the WV/VA mountains, south-central and eastern PA and northern NJ. I took the 12z Euro Op. solution and shifted the low center northwestward to account for for some model biases, which actually lines up fairly well with the 18z NAM after that adjustment. I believe the 12z and now 18z GFS solutions are too suppressed with this system given how strong the vort. max is. The snowfall totals could go up as the storm's track and QPF amounts get honed in on the models. for where we are now hard not to agree. i've liked the idea of snow since early y-day at least (not sure i was really paying attention prior) in pretty much the same general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 yeah, about a .25" more qpf than 12Z, but I'll reserve final judgment after I look at the soundings A blend of the NAM/Euro/GFS would be perfect imho, a bit more namish form of the gfs I'd really like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 yeah, about a .25" more qpf than 12Z, but I'll reserve final judgment after I look at the soundings the NCEP Maps are a disaster...nothing works...ive seen maps images on the 4 panel where the first 2 panels are from yesterday and the bottom 2 panels are from today...you click next to see the same hour and you get maps that you didnt even choose. What a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Think 10/29 redux, only the temps and QPF line up a bit better for the changeover on the back-end: The upper-level vort. max is potent enough to create an area of strong dynamics along the back edge of the system, which will pull cooler air down to the surface and make it cool enough within the boundary layer for some accumulation as the coastal low forms and tracks northeastward. Some banding will allow for locally higher totals along the axis that has the greatest snowfall through the WV/VA mountains, south-central and eastern PA and northern NJ. I took the 12z Euro Op. solution and shifted the low center northwestward to account for for some model biases, which actually lines up fairly well with the 18z NAM after that adjustment. I believe the 12z and now 18z GFS solutions are too suppressed with this system given how strong the vort. max is. The snowfall totals could go up as the storm's track and QPF amounts get honed in on the models. those numbers will work out to the north of DCA/BWI, but only if the heavy precip shield expands that far seems like only the NAM shows anything close to allowing that to happen (at least at this time) so I'm guessing you are figuring on a north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Think 10/29 redux, only the temps and QPF line up a bit better for the changeover on the back-end: The upper-level vort. max is potent enough to create an area of strong dynamics along the back edge of the system, which will pull cooler air down to the surface and make it cool enough within the boundary layer for some accumulation as the coastal low forms and tracks northeastward. Some banding will allow for locally higher totals along the axis that has the greatest snowfall through the WV/VA mountains, south-central and eastern PA and northern NJ. I took the 12z Euro Op. solution and shifted the low center northwestward to account for for some model biases, which actually lines up fairly well with the 18z NAM after that adjustment. I believe the 12z and now 18z GFS solutions are too suppressed with this system given how strong the vort. max is. The snowfall totals could go up as the storm's track and QPF amounts get honed in on the models. Looks pretty good, like mitch said I guess you're thinking a bit north, I feel a blend of them is likely. Bmore on border of 1-2/2-4, pretty cool. Nice forecast and good reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 There are still problems with the boundary layer on the GFS, look at the 09Z zero line, it's pretty far west. That's going to be the big issue. It's sad that we essentially have the same issue as in late October. Blame the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 for where we are now hard not to agree. i've liked the idea of snow since early y-day at least (not sure i was really paying attention prior) in pretty much the same general area. Potential's definitely been there, but it was too borderline looking up until yesterday. Glad to see it (apparently) pan out. those numbers will work out to the north of DCA/BWI, but only if the heavy precip shield expands that far seems like only the NAM shows anything close to allowing that to happen (at least at this time) so I'm guessing you are figuring on a north trend Looks pretty good, like mitch said I guess you're thinking a bit north, I feel a blend of them is likely. Bmore on border of 1-2/2-4, pretty cool. Nice forecast and good reasoning. I think the NAM track is a fairly good call at this point (the surface low, not necessarily the QPF). Euro's close and should trend NW a bit as we get closer. GFS track is silly. I'm worried I might have to shift/expand the axis more to the north in PA/NJ, but we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 There are still problems with the boundary layer on the GFS, look at the 09Z zero line, it's pretty far west. That's going to be the big issue. It's sad that we essentially have the same issue as in late October. Blame the pattern. it really is pretty pathetic both 10/29 and this one have been driven by the strong upper level patterns vs. baroclinic boundary (if I'm saying that correctly, but you know what I mean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Potential's definitely been there, but it was too borderline looking up until yesterday. Glad to see it (apparently) pan out. I think the NAM track is a fairly good call at this point (the surface low, not necessarily the QPF). Euro's close and should trend NW a bit as we get closer. GFS track is silly. I'm worried I might have to shift the axis more to the north in PA/NJ, but we'll see what happens. Heck I didn;t even notice the GFS track and assumed it was OK, I'm sure more suppressed than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 it really is pretty pathetic both 10/29 and this one have been driven by the strong upper level patterns vs. baroclinic boundary (if I'm saying that correctly, but you know what I mean) But then we had a weakly negative nao, now we don't which is why we still have borderline temps. In October it was climo, now it's the pattern. Still, it's something to watch and I get to do another article tomorrow. Life is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 That's the peril when a normal December's snowfall is just a couple inches. Only takes one storm amidst an otherwise unfavorable pattern to get above normal. Easier to make those statements in January and February when you can get a couple accumulating snow events and still end up below normal snowfall. That's the folly of creating and verifying forecasts based on "above normal" or "below normal" metrics. One big snowstorm can put a month and sometimes a season above normal. Heck, a few hours of high ratio powder can give the numerical impression of a banner year. Maybe frequency of snowfall should carry more weight than accumulation when discussion longer range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Mattie, go to the 850 map link we want the 850 Low (or circle) to our south around RIC to OC vs. where this map shows it http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M You want it moved. i kinda like it right where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Also it doesn't help we have a Bermuda High off the coast. I still think a good amount of people will see a transition to snow with this though. We gotta keep watching this of course. I think there will be a little bit more accumulation south than what we saw in October. Like where I live in Prince William, I think we'll see more snow than October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Think 10/29 redux, only the temps and QPF line up a bit better for the changeover on the back-end: Nice ! Hope your forecast verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 DT's first guess. I like it. But he may be a little light on snowfall? http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/1stguess.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 DT's first guess. I like it. But he may be a little light on snowfall? http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/1stguess.jpg Looks pretty good. I'd have trouble going above 3-6/4-8 max for now as QPF max displaced from snowiest spots on most runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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