eduggs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 That's the peril when a normal December's snowfall is just a couple inches. Only takes one storm amidst an otherwise unfavorable pattern to get above normal. Easier to make those statements in January and February when you can get a couple accumulating snow events and still end up below normal snowfall. That's the folly of creating and verifying forecasts based on "above normal" or "below normal" metrics. One big snowstorm can put a month and sometimes a season above normal. Heck, a few hours of high ratio powder can give the numerical impression of a banner year. Maybe frequency of snowfall should carry more weight than accumulation when discussion longer range forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Mattie, go to the 850 map link we want the 850 Low (or circle) to our south around RIC to OC vs. where this map shows it http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M You want it moved. i kinda like it right where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Also it doesn't help we have a Bermuda High off the coast. I still think a good amount of people will see a transition to snow with this though. We gotta keep watching this of course. I think there will be a little bit more accumulation south than what we saw in October. Like where I live in Prince William, I think we'll see more snow than October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Think 10/29 redux, only the temps and QPF line up a bit better for the changeover on the back-end: Nice ! Hope your forecast verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 DT's first guess. I like it. But he may be a little light on snowfall? http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/1stguess.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 DT's first guess. I like it. But he may be a little light on snowfall? http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/1stguess.jpg Looks pretty good. I'd have trouble going above 3-6/4-8 max for now as QPF max displaced from snowiest spots on most runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 ugh the gap between modeling updates is unbearable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 ugh the gap between modeling updates is unbearable Have some nice dinner, read a cool article online. I highly suggest Reddit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 OK folks - I just came up for air after another long intersector battle on Battle Pirates - I checked the weather forecast What's this about a changeover Wed night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 K - I see DT's 1st guess Time to calm down This is an elevation dependent event I will see a BRIEF interval of flurries on the back end TOPS Back to Battle Pirates Good luck MOUNTAINS and farther north with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 DT's first guess. I like it. But he may be a little light on snowfall? http://1664596.sites...gy/1stguess.jpg lol...makes no sense. There is a sudden jump from trace to 1", and then what comes between 3" and 3-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'm afraid I allowed myself to think there's a glimmer of hope for something of interest in this storm, and I'm going to end up disappointed. If it doesn't pan out, I will at least have learned a little more about the setup, which is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol...makes no sense. There is a sudden jump from trace to 1", and then what comes between 3" and 3-6"? if you assume it's implied that it's 1"+ etc it makes sense tho i guess that is a tight gradient between a trace and 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol...makes no sense. There is a sudden jump from trace to 1", and then what comes between 3" and 3-6"? you ask too many questions you must still be in college Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 RGEM (18Z) at 48 hrs....juiced and warm http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I like the look of the 500 vort and also the sim radar. Obviously areas n-w are favored but I do believe dca-bwi do better than oct 29th. The ull will be the key since we aren't going to get any snow on the front end. Only as it spins through. Hopefully the ull gets a shot of steroids as it enters NC. As much as I've tried to talk myself out of it, I'm starting to think accum snow is likely from the big cities westward. Edit: I wanted to add that although I said accum snow likely, my expectations are set at 1-2" tops. Areas in upper Moco westward will do better (when isn't that the case). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 RGEM (18Z) at 48 hrs....juiced and warm http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif man thats ugly. Would be nice to see the PV in canada come down SE a bit and the speed of the shortwave not change too much. Unfortunately it seems models usually trend the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol...makes no sense. There is a sudden jump from trace to 1", and then what comes between 3" and 3-6"? Come on, Fozz you can understand what that says. We are between 1 and 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 RGEM (18Z) at 48 hrs....juiced and warm http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif Unreadable black and white maps in a foreign language are always wrong. I'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Come on, Fozz you can understand what that says. We are between 1 and 3 inches. I know.....I'm just giving DT a hard time for his inconsistent maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18z UKIE doesn't look like much help either -- http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/111205235655459441000.gif Thats the 60 hr 850 map. The 850 line is still back in the Apps at 6z Thursday Morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I know.....I'm just giving DT a hard time for his inconsistent maps But it wasn't really inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18z UKIE doesn't look like much help either -- http://vortex.plymou...55459441000.gif Thats the 60 hr 850 map. The 850 line is still back in the Apps at 6z Thursday Morning we might have hit the sweet spot too soon.. not that we should be expecting a ton of excitement around here at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 RGEM (18Z) at 48 hrs....juiced and warm http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif That's nasty. Temps better crash real quick from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 we might have hit the sweet spot too soon.. not that we should be expecting a ton of excitement around here at least perhaps. Though the UKIE is spitting out a ridiculous amount of QPF hrs 48-60 -- http://vortex.plymou...02950591000.gif (2"+) QPF hrs 60-72 -- http://vortex.plymou...21916099000.gif After hr 60, probably about .6 to .7 QPF falls in the LWX CWA. I would guess the 0c 850 line crosses probably hr 66 (but I can't see it, hr 72 -3c 850 I-95 and west basically) so who knows how much frozen we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 perhaps. Though the UKIE is spitting out a ridiculous amount of QPF hrs 48-60 -- http://vortex.plymou...02950591000.gif (2"+) QPF hrs 60-72 -- http://vortex.plymou...21916099000.gif After hr 60, probably about .6 to .7 QPF falls in the LWX CWA. I would guess the 0c 850 line crosses probably hr 66 (but I can't see it, hr 72 -3c 850 I-95 and west basically) so who knows how much frozen we see. i actually don't really care what the ukie says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 When is the 0z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 When is the 0z nam? This should answer all of those questions. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 When is the 0z nam? starts around 8:50 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I pulled this from the NY thread. Juicy from the NAM for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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