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Ji

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the h5 is good, and wes is right h85 close for us, but in this pattern if i saw the nam doing this for the area and with the sfc low a bit more east us hitting mitch's home run, I'd say wow lets track this. This is kinda promising for us in all honestly considering where the euro is also, 18z gfs should be interesting.

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so you're hugging the 18z NAM at 60 hrs?

(just trying to get into your head in case I need to fill in for you at cwg :facepalm: )

I don't think it changes anything one way or the other. It would still change to snow, I don't like the track of the 850 on this run but have no idea whether it is better or worse than the last one. MY old write-up stands. I probably shouldn't post about individaul model runs. people take them and me too seriously.

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Agree. Definitely would defer to you, but perhaps we are helped a little by this pattern being more progressive and not sending it up the coast.

Here we are again, reading far too deeply into the 18z NAM just because it shows some flakes :)

I just made a similar post. We all make too much of individual model runs. I'm not one who thinks the 18Z nam is inherently poorer than the 12Z. The scores are pretty similar. Next run will probably be a little different. Also, the heavier precip might make it easier to cool down than if it were a little farther south and less aggressive with the uvv.

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I don't think it changes anything one way or the other. It would still change to snow, I don't like the track of the 850 on this run but have no idea whether it is better or worse than the last one. MY old write-up stands. I probably shouldn't post about individaul model runs. people take them and me too seriously.

Probably because you're good and know what you're talking about? Pesky facts like that...

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I don't think it changes anything one way or the other. It would still change to snow, I don't like the track of the 850 on this run but have no idea whether it is better or worse than the last one. MY old write-up stands. I probably shouldn't post about individaul model runs. people take them and me too seriously.

I really hate to ask this in this thread, but is there somewhere someone can direct me to help me understand a little more about the 850 setup? I can figure out the 500 OK, but the 850 isn't as obvious to me. A link or something via PM would be fine!

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I don't think it changes anything one way or the other. It would still change to snow, I don't like the track of the 850 on this run but have no idea whether it is better or worse than the last one. MY old write-up stands. I probably shouldn't post about individaul model runs. people take them and me too seriously.

I was kidding completely, hence the face-palm

p.s.when in doubt, don't take me seriously...it's allowed my marriage to last for 26 years+!

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I really hate to ask this in this thread, but is there somewhere someone can direct me to help me understand a little more about the 850 setup? I can figure out the 500 OK, but the 850 isn't as obvious to me. A link or something via PM would be fine!

Mattie, go to the 850 map link

we want the 850 Low (or circle) to our south around RIC to OC vs. where this map shows it

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F05%2F2011+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_temp_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=060&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

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I really hate to ask this in this thread, but is there somewhere someone can direct me to help me understand a little more about the 850 setup? I can figure out the 500 OK, but the 850 isn't as obvious to me. A link or something via PM would be fine!

Mattie, the optimum distance to out south for the 850 low is around 90 nautical miles but can vary. When model's were not as sophisticated as they are now, that was the key feature to key one. FOr strong surface low and big northeasters we like the surface low to track somewhere near Norfolk or around 150 nm to the south and east. However, the surface low relationship varies alot more than the 850 does and nothing is set in stone except when the 850 low tracks to out north, kiss snow goodbye

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well, if nothing else, I like this pattern (cut-off 5H lows traversing the country) and hope it sticks around for the rest of the winter; I'll take my chances with temps down the road even if this one doesn't work out

the 12/09 pattern came back to feed us later in that winter, so I've got my fingers crossed

I've been watching that too. It's no coincidence but I don't know why it keeps happening. I brought this up in a preivous thread and zwyts made a good point. 500 energy sliding beneath the ridge out west during a nina usually shears out unless it phases with a vort in the NS as it tracks across the gulf coast. It's interesting to see this one hanging together.

I've been watching the lr in the models for obvious reasons but I have also noticed alot of closed 500 lows coming in under the ridge. 12z gfs has a couple of them entering the west coast in socal in the lr. I don't know what this means but it's interesting.

Heck, the fact that we have a threat inside of 60 hours when everything about the pattern screams "no snow for you!" is pretty damn interesting.

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I was kidding completely, hence the face-palm

p.s.when in doubt, don't take me seriously...it's allowed my marriage to last for 26 years+!

No need for a facepalm, but people do take my words too seriously. Heck, I just finished saying the pattern sucked 4 or 5 days ago and that we probalby see less snow than normal for the month and now we have a chance of snow. It leaves me up in the air as to whether to hope the snow storm fizzles to verify my forecast or that it occurs to feed my weenie side. So conflicted, lol, fishing is so much easier as a hobby.

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No need for a facepalm, but people do take my words too seriously. Heck, I just finished saying the pattern sucked 4 or 5 days ago and that we probalby see less snow than normal for the month and now we have a chance of snow. It leaves me up in the air as to whether to hope the snow storm fizzles to verify my forecast or that it occurs to feed my weenie side. So conflicted, lol, fishing is so much easier as a hobby.

You didn't say anything wrong, so there's no reason to be conflicted. You made it clear that just because the pattern is bad for snow, doesn't mean it can't snow.

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Heck, I just finished saying the pattern sucked 4 or 5 days ago and that we probalby see less snow than normal for the month

That's the peril when a normal December's snowfall is just a couple inches. Only takes one storm amidst an otherwise unfavorable pattern to get above normal. Easier to make those statements in January and February when you can get a couple accumulating snow events and still end up below normal snowfall.

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No need for a facepalm, but people do take my words too seriously. Heck, I just finished saying the pattern sucked 4 or 5 days ago and that we probalby see less snow than normal for the month and now we have a chance of snow. It leaves me up in the air as to whether to hope the snow storm fizzles to verify my forecast or that it occurs to feed my weenie side. So conflicted, lol, fishing is so much easier as a hobby.

I get very concerned if you find something unfavorable for snow and very excited if you find something favorable for snow. Your words can ruin my entire day. Tread carefully...

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i hate when people say the 00z gfs will be telling....actually it wont be...non on monday 54 hours before the event

cliches are more fun than actual analysis most of the time.

you think the 2.5" qpf the nam shows is legit? or 18z throw it out?

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