TUweathermanDD Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 the h5 is good, and wes is right h85 close for us, but in this pattern if i saw the nam doing this for the area and with the sfc low a bit more east us hitting mitch's home run, I'd say wow lets track this. This is kinda promising for us in all honestly considering where the euro is also, 18z gfs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Over 2.5" storm total QPF DC metro. and since NAM honestly has been going crazy with qpf this fall, unwind that 5H low it a bit and the storm is further south and east right where the Euro had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Over 2.5" storm total QPF DC metro. very juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 and since NAM honestly has been going crazy with qpf this fall, unwind that 5H low it a bit and the storm is further south and east right where the Euro had it This is a good post, I agree with this 100%, great point mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 so you're hugging the 18z NAM at 60 hrs? (just trying to get into your head in case I need to fill in for you at cwg ) I don't think it changes anything one way or the other. It would still change to snow, I don't like the track of the 850 on this run but have no idea whether it is better or worse than the last one. MY old write-up stands. I probably shouldn't post about individaul model runs. people take them and me too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Really hope the NAM is too slow in jumping the LP to to the coast, but it is close to being something very very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Agree. Definitely would defer to you, but perhaps we are helped a little by this pattern being more progressive and not sending it up the coast. Here we are again, reading far too deeply into the 18z NAM just because it shows some flakes I just made a similar post. We all make too much of individual model runs. I'm not one who thinks the 18Z nam is inherently poorer than the 12Z. The scores are pretty similar. Next run will probably be a little different. Also, the heavier precip might make it easier to cool down than if it were a little farther south and less aggressive with the uvv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't think it changes anything one way or the other. It would still change to snow, I don't like the track of the 850 on this run but have no idea whether it is better or worse than the last one. MY old write-up stands. I probably shouldn't post about individaul model runs. people take them and me too seriously. Probably because you're good and know what you're talking about? Pesky facts like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 If its all snow, this is a 1-2 feet event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 If its all snow, this is a 1-2 feet event If DT was like Donald Sutherland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't think it changes anything one way or the other. It would still change to snow, I don't like the track of the 850 on this run but have no idea whether it is better or worse than the last one. MY old write-up stands. I probably shouldn't post about individaul model runs. people take them and me too seriously. I really hate to ask this in this thread, but is there somewhere someone can direct me to help me understand a little more about the 850 setup? I can figure out the 500 OK, but the 850 isn't as obvious to me. A link or something via PM would be fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't think it changes anything one way or the other. It would still change to snow, I don't like the track of the 850 on this run but have no idea whether it is better or worse than the last one. MY old write-up stands. I probably shouldn't post about individaul model runs. people take them and me too seriously. I was kidding completely, hence the face-palm p.s.when in doubt, don't take me seriously...it's allowed my marriage to last for 26 years+! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I really hate to ask this in this thread, but is there somewhere someone can direct me to help me understand a little more about the 850 setup? I can figure out the 500 OK, but the 850 isn't as obvious to me. A link or something via PM would be fine! Mattie, go to the 850 map link we want the 850 Low (or circle) to our south around RIC to OC vs. where this map shows it http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F05%2F2011+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_temp_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=060&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I really hate to ask this in this thread, but is there somewhere someone can direct me to help me understand a little more about the 850 setup? I can figure out the 500 OK, but the 850 isn't as obvious to me. A link or something via PM would be fine! Mattie, the optimum distance to out south for the 850 low is around 90 nautical miles but can vary. When model's were not as sophisticated as they are now, that was the key feature to key one. FOr strong surface low and big northeasters we like the surface low to track somewhere near Norfolk or around 150 nm to the south and east. However, the surface low relationship varies alot more than the 850 does and nothing is set in stone except when the 850 low tracks to out north, kiss snow goodbye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 well, if nothing else, I like this pattern (cut-off 5H lows traversing the country) and hope it sticks around for the rest of the winter; I'll take my chances with temps down the road even if this one doesn't work out the 12/09 pattern came back to feed us later in that winter, so I've got my fingers crossed I've been watching that too. It's no coincidence but I don't know why it keeps happening. I brought this up in a preivous thread and zwyts made a good point. 500 energy sliding beneath the ridge out west during a nina usually shears out unless it phases with a vort in the NS as it tracks across the gulf coast. It's interesting to see this one hanging together. I've been watching the lr in the models for obvious reasons but I have also noticed alot of closed 500 lows coming in under the ridge. 12z gfs has a couple of them entering the west coast in socal in the lr. I don't know what this means but it's interesting. Heck, the fact that we have a threat inside of 60 hours when everything about the pattern screams "no snow for you!" is pretty damn interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I was kidding completely, hence the face-palm p.s.when in doubt, don't take me seriously...it's allowed my marriage to last for 26 years+! No need for a facepalm, but people do take my words too seriously. Heck, I just finished saying the pattern sucked 4 or 5 days ago and that we probalby see less snow than normal for the month and now we have a chance of snow. It leaves me up in the air as to whether to hope the snow storm fizzles to verify my forecast or that it occurs to feed my weenie side. So conflicted, lol, fishing is so much easier as a hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If DT was like Donald Sutherland... Taht actually made me chuckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 No need for a facepalm, but people do take my words too seriously. Heck, I just finished saying the pattern sucked 4 or 5 days ago and that we probalby see less snow than normal for the month and now we have a chance of snow. It leaves me up in the air as to whether to hope the snow storm fizzles to verify my forecast or that it occurs to feed my weenie side. So conflicted, lol, fishing is so much easier as a hobby. You didn't say anything wrong, so there's no reason to be conflicted. You made it clear that just because the pattern is bad for snow, doesn't mean it can't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Heck, I just finished saying the pattern sucked 4 or 5 days ago and that we probalby see less snow than normal for the month That's the peril when a normal December's snowfall is just a couple inches. Only takes one storm amidst an otherwise unfavorable pattern to get above normal. Easier to make those statements in January and February when you can get a couple accumulating snow events and still end up below normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 im pretty sure these threads are on loops we replay every time there is a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 No need for a facepalm, but people do take my words too seriously. Heck, I just finished saying the pattern sucked 4 or 5 days ago and that we probalby see less snow than normal for the month and now we have a chance of snow. It leaves me up in the air as to whether to hope the snow storm fizzles to verify my forecast or that it occurs to feed my weenie side. So conflicted, lol, fishing is so much easier as a hobby. I get very concerned if you find something unfavorable for snow and very excited if you find something favorable for snow. Your words can ruin my entire day. Tread carefully... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Last 3 runs of the NAM, from Bufkit, gave MRB 7.5", 6.1" and 8.0" Cut that in half and its still a nice snowfall. Yesterday it way the GFS putting out these totals. Guess we'll be better able to pin it down tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 last year we had a great pattern and no snow...this year horrible pattern and potentially 2 winter storm warning events....by Dec 7. Weather is funny i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 im pretty sure these threads are on loops we replay every time there is a storm This 18z GFS run is the least important run of our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 and I'm in San Francisco until Friday. Yeah, I read that in the Science forum. If we get that much snow, it'll be waiting for you when you return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This 18z GFS run is the least important run of our lives. don't go off script!1!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 This 18z GFS run is the least important run of our lives. i hate when people say the 00z gfs will be telling....actually it wont be...non on monday 54 hours before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 don't go off script!1!! your profile says 60 degrees. Way to warm for snow..plus hot roads...terrible sun angle....bad pattern...hostile per ORH...not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i hate when people say the 00z gfs will be telling....actually it wont be...non on monday 54 hours before the event cliches are more fun than actual analysis most of the time. you think the 2.5" qpf the nam shows is legit? or 18z throw it out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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