stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 but that's the 1st round; it's down to our S/SW that will bring us the snow, if at all (but I know you knew that) I don't know how much, if any, a stronger initial system will mean for us on the part that counts This run looks a lot wetter IMO so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 bigger bomb this run for sure agree with you about a few better qualities of this run, i like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 bigger bomb this run for sure GMTA Probably the usual case of the NAM overdoing things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This run looks a lot wetter IMO so far see last post on last page (weenie minds think alike) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 seems faster than 12z too We actually have a discernible, contoured 850 low @ 54hrs. The Euro closed off the low, but neither of the NCEP morning models really did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks to be going negative to soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Western MoCo, Western Howard, Frederick Co., Northern half of Carroll Co and the Hereford Zone in Balto Co. If you're in MD and not in those areas, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 might be too strong this run, hard to say gotta' watch what you wish for around here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol, yeah, the NAM is going crazy with the QPF. Oddly, 850 placement looks similar so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 might be too strong this run, hard to say gotta' watch what you wish for around here lol I don't think it's a run you are going to like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't think it's a run you are going to like. well, I was trying to keep it positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Damn near isothermal near freezing at 6z from 950 on up. Looks like the changeover will be an hour or two earlier than the morning run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Doesn't look all that dire to me? 850 placement may be slightly more NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 move that slp down to the VA/NC border where the Euro had it, and it's a home run still, I don't think it's bad thru 60 hours being that it's more than 2 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 More of a Cape May than Ocean City 850 track, which I would interpret as a step backwards, but definitely snowing in the DC metro at 09z. Changeover must be around 07z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 that ain't a bad spot at all http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F05%2F2011+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=060&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Clown map for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If the nam was just a bit better, it would be a slam dunk. Not a bad place to be considering where the euro is and that the nam sometimes does some overcorrection. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol, yeah, the NAM is going crazy with the QPF. Oddly, 850 placement looks similar so far At 6Z on 12/8, it's a hair east (maybe 75-100 miles) of today's 12Z, but same latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 More of a Cape May than Ocean City 850 track, which I would interpret as a step backwards, but definitely snowing in the DC metro at 09z. Changeover must be around 07z. The 850 low placement is not good. it's too far north and west (too clse to us) for us normally to get much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM looks snowier for western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 If Wes ever retired from Weather, obituary writer would be a good job for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The 850 low placement is not good. it's too far north and west (too clse to us) for us normally to get much snow. so you're hugging the 18z NAM at 60 hrs? (just trying to get into your head in case I need to fill in for you at cwg ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If Wes ever retired from Weather, obituary writer would be a good job for him Not bad, not bad. The truth hurts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18z NAM has the 0 line at 850 right over my house by hr. 51 with a lot of precip still to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 EDIT: this has Oct 29, 2011 written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Over 2.5" storm total QPF DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'll take half of what the NAM is giving me and be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Unless I'm seeing it completely wrong, the H5 on this run is actually just a hair further south and a little more east than the 12Z NAM. Not a big trend, but it's not like it came further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The 850 low placement is not good. it's too far north and west (too clse to us) for us normally to get much snow. Agree. Definitely would defer to you, but perhaps we are helped a little by this pattern being more progressive and not sending it up the coast. Here we are again, reading far too deeply into the 18z NAM just because it shows some flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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