aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It depends to some extent on how you define "above average in snow and temps", but here is what I just did: For the entirety of the snow record in DC (it dates to the winter of 1884-85, but with December 1886 and December 1887 not available, for some reason), I calculated the average temperature and snow for December, January, and February. Those averages are as follows: December: Temp, 38.3 degrees; snow, 3.0 inches. January: Temp, 35.3 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches. February: Temp, 36.9 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches. For each month, I then determined how many years exceeded both of those averages, and divided the number of those years by the total number of years available for each month. Results are: December: 11 of 125 years, or 8.8%. January: 13 of 127 years, or 10.2%. February: 10 of 127 years, or 7.9%. Composite percentage is 9.0%. Using the above temperature definitions, the most snow that has ever fallen in DC in a month that was above average in temperature was February 1983, when 21.0 inches of snow were recorded, with an average temperature of 38.7 degrees. . Thanks Rodney for following up on this question...9% sounds low but in my eyes that's actually a pretty high number considering our location.....and oh yeah for the person who deleted my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wet 18z NAM run for DC through 48hrs, already over an inch of rain. Nice stats, Rodney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 subtle changes continue on 18z NAM that I believe will be better for us, even though I always caution everyone else to wait for the run to finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wet 18z NAM run for DC through 48hrs, already over an inch of rain. Nice stats, Rodney. but that's the 1st round; it's down to our S/SW that will bring us the snow, if at all (but I know you knew that) I don't know how much, if any, a stronger initial system will mean for us on the part that counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 seems faster than 12z too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 bigger bomb this run for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 but that's the 1st round; it's down to our S/SW that will bring us the snow, if at all (but I know you knew that) I don't know how much, if any, a stronger initial system will mean for us on the part that counts This run looks a lot wetter IMO so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 bigger bomb this run for sure agree with you about a few better qualities of this run, i like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 bigger bomb this run for sure GMTA Probably the usual case of the NAM overdoing things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This run looks a lot wetter IMO so far see last post on last page (weenie minds think alike) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 seems faster than 12z too We actually have a discernible, contoured 850 low @ 54hrs. The Euro closed off the low, but neither of the NCEP morning models really did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks to be going negative to soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Western MoCo, Western Howard, Frederick Co., Northern half of Carroll Co and the Hereford Zone in Balto Co. If you're in MD and not in those areas, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 might be too strong this run, hard to say gotta' watch what you wish for around here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol, yeah, the NAM is going crazy with the QPF. Oddly, 850 placement looks similar so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 might be too strong this run, hard to say gotta' watch what you wish for around here lol I don't think it's a run you are going to like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't think it's a run you are going to like. well, I was trying to keep it positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Damn near isothermal near freezing at 6z from 950 on up. Looks like the changeover will be an hour or two earlier than the morning run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Doesn't look all that dire to me? 850 placement may be slightly more NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 move that slp down to the VA/NC border where the Euro had it, and it's a home run still, I don't think it's bad thru 60 hours being that it's more than 2 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 More of a Cape May than Ocean City 850 track, which I would interpret as a step backwards, but definitely snowing in the DC metro at 09z. Changeover must be around 07z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 that ain't a bad spot at all http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F05%2F2011+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=060&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Clown map for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If the nam was just a bit better, it would be a slam dunk. Not a bad place to be considering where the euro is and that the nam sometimes does some overcorrection. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 lol, yeah, the NAM is going crazy with the QPF. Oddly, 850 placement looks similar so far At 6Z on 12/8, it's a hair east (maybe 75-100 miles) of today's 12Z, but same latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 More of a Cape May than Ocean City 850 track, which I would interpret as a step backwards, but definitely snowing in the DC metro at 09z. Changeover must be around 07z. The 850 low placement is not good. it's too far north and west (too clse to us) for us normally to get much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM looks snowier for western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 If Wes ever retired from Weather, obituary writer would be a good job for him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The 850 low placement is not good. it's too far north and west (too clse to us) for us normally to get much snow. so you're hugging the 18z NAM at 60 hrs? (just trying to get into your head in case I need to fill in for you at cwg ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If Wes ever retired from Weather, obituary writer would be a good job for him Not bad, not bad. The truth hurts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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