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Wow. That is exacly what I was hoping for. Not only is it ideal but it is also a classic track. Many a storm has snowed on us with that track and it almost seems likely considering what all the models are showing. NAM will likely give us more promise in a couple of hours.

There's 60+ degree water just off the coast of VA. Gotta wonder if the low deepens quicker upon exit that what is modeled.

got me.. guess it's possible. i do like the idea about the s/w perhaps not being as washed out / washing out as quikly as modeled. that did happen in oct and does from time to time. i remember some wondering if the signs early of s/w wanting to drop south of us were good.. maybe they were.

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got me.. guess it's possible. i do like the idea about the s/w perhaps not being as washed out / washing out as quikly as modeled. that did happen in oct and does from time to time. i remember some wondering if the signs early of s/w wanting to drop south of us were good.. maybe they were.

If we get this track several times during winter I can't imagine we won't get at least 1 good snow out of it

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The dec 5 2009 snow event wasn't that cold either but we got 4-5 inches from what i recall. That to. Started as rain and was a daytime event

It was quite warm, actually. I was Odenton, MD (a far less favorable area than Loudoun) and the temperature was in the high-30s. Once the thing got going, the ground was covered and a nice winter scene was had.

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maybe my 25-30" at DCA will come true after all. :P

It's pretty funny how just about every outlet is now lowering their snow call for the winter yet I suppose the potential may be there for an above average temp winter with close to normal snow if we get a few of these flukes strung together? Goes to show that snow calls are always risky and generally just a guess....

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It's pretty funny how just about every outlet is now lowering their snow call for the winter yet I suppose the potential may be there for an above average temp winter with close to normal snow if we get a few of these flukes strung together? Goes to show that snow calls are always risky and generally just a guess....

yeah, had to hear about that all morning from my co-workers... this would be a nice 1-2" IMO it it came to fruition and went very well for us...

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The dec 5 2009 snow event wasn't that cold either but we got 4-5 inches from what i recall. That to. Started as rain and was a daytime event

Yep. It was rain over to snow by 10am and ended up with 3-4 inches. East of 95 and the beltway did not make out as good with that one.

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well, if nothing else, I like this pattern (cut-off 5H lows traversing the country) and hope it sticks around for the rest of the winter; I'll take my chances with temps down the road even if this one doesn't work out

the 12/09 pattern came back to feed us later in that winter, so I've got my fingers crossed

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12z euro ens mean has the low in about the same spot, but the 0c is about 50 miles west of th op near dc after this the 0c crashes east and dc is in the 0.25" ens mean at hr 72

slp position is very good news

I'm not so concerned about the temps because the mean is a bunch of different runs and that average will rarely capture a storm with the dynamics the op run shows

I think we are in a surprisingly good position for the event....which could change in 20 minutes, of course

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I wonder what the frequency is for DC to have a winter month both above average in snow and temps?

It depends to some extent on how you define "above average in snow and temps", but here is what I just did: For the entirety of the snow record in DC (it dates to the winter of 1884-85, but with December 1886 and December 1887 not available, for some reason), I calculated the average temperature and snow for December, January, and February. Those averages are as follows:

December: Temp, 38.3 degrees; snow, 3.0 inches.

January: Temp, 35.3 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches.

February: Temp, 36.9 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches.

For each month, I then determined how many years exceeded both of those averages, and divided the number of those years by the total number of years available for each month. Results are:

December: 11 of 125 years, or 8.8%.

January: 13 of 127 years, or 10.2%.

February: 10 of 127 years, or 7.9%.

Composite percentage is 9.0%.

Using the above temperature definitions, the most snow that has ever fallen in DC in a month that was above average in temperature was February 1983, when 21.0 inches of snow were recorded, with an average temperature of 38.7 degrees.

.

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It depends to some extent on how you define "above average in snow and temps", but here is what I just did: For the entirety of the snow record in DC (it dates to the winter of 1884-85, but with December 1886 and December 1887 not available, for some reason), I calculated the average temperature and snow for December, January, and February. Those averages are as follows:

December: Temp, 38.3 degrees; snow, 3.0 inches.

January: Temp, 35.3 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches.

February: Temp, 36.9 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches.

For each month, I then determined how many years exceeded both of those averages, and divided the number of those years by the total number of years available for each month. Results are:

December: 11 of 125 years, or 8.8%.

January: 13 of 127 years, or 10.2%.

February: 10 of 127 years, or 7.9%.

Composite percentage is 9.0%.

Using the above temperature definitions, the most snow that has ever fallen in DC in a month that was above average in temperature was February 1983, when 21.0 inches of snow were recorded, with an average temperature of 38.7 degrees.

.

My "RodneyS/Bat signal" post from earlier was removed, but I knew you'd have the stats for this. Thanks for the post. Definitely interesting reading.

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SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW MAINLY FROM WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE WARRANTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.

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It depends to some extent on how you define "above average in snow and temps", but here is what I just did: For the entirety of the snow record in DC (it dates to the winter of 1884-85, but with December 1886 and December 1887 not available, for some reason), I calculated the average temperature and snow for December, January, and February. Those averages are as follows:

December: Temp, 38.3 degrees; snow, 3.0 inches.

January: Temp, 35.3 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches.

February: Temp, 36.9 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches.

For each month, I then determined how many years exceeded both of those averages, and divided the number of those years by the total number of years available for each month. Results are:

December: 11 of 125 years, or 8.8%.

January: 13 of 127 years, or 10.2%.

February: 10 of 127 years, or 7.9%.

Composite percentage is 9.0%.

Using the above temperature definitions, the most snow that has ever fallen in DC in a month that was above average in temperature was February 1983, when 21.0 inches of snow were recorded, with an average temperature of 38.7 degrees.

.

Thanks Rodney for following up on this question...9% sounds low but in my eyes that's actually a pretty high number considering our location.....and oh yeah for the person who deleted my post

:thumbsup:

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Wet 18z NAM run for DC through 48hrs, already over an inch of rain.

Nice stats, Rodney.

but that's the 1st round; it's down to our S/SW that will bring us the snow, if at all (but I know you knew that)

I don't know how much, if any, a stronger initial system will mean for us on the part that counts

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