Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wow. That is exacly what I was hoping for. Not only is it ideal but it is also a classic track. Many a storm has snowed on us with that track and it almost seems likely considering what all the models are showing. NAM will likely give us more promise in a couple of hours. There's 60+ degree water just off the coast of VA. Gotta wonder if the low deepens quicker upon exit that what is modeled. got me.. guess it's possible. i do like the idea about the s/w perhaps not being as washed out / washing out as quikly as modeled. that did happen in oct and does from time to time. i remember some wondering if the signs early of s/w wanting to drop south of us were good.. maybe they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 got me.. guess it's possible. i do like the idea about the s/w perhaps not being as washed out / washing out as quikly as modeled. that did happen in oct and does from time to time. i remember some wondering if the signs early of s/w wanting to drop south of us were good.. maybe they were. If we get this track several times during winter I can't imagine we won't get at least 1 good snow out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'll post the link when the story is posted. It's getting prepped now. Here's the site if you want to access the forecasts besides when I write. Ian is one of the forecasters so is Scudz. http://www.washingto...al-weather-gang Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The dec 5 2009 snow event wasn't that cold either but we got 4-5 inches from what i recall. That to. Started as rain and was a daytime event It was quite warm, actually. I was Odenton, MD (a far less favorable area than Loudoun) and the temperature was in the high-30s. Once the thing got going, the ground was covered and a nice winter scene was had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The dec 5 2009 snow event wasn't that cold either but we got 4-5 inches from what i recall. That to. Started as rain and was a daytime event I got nearly 6" out of that one, and I doubt this storm will be as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 If we get this track several times during winter I can't imagine we won't get at least 1 good snow out of it maybe my 25-30" at DCA will come true after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 wes' post http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/snow-is-possible-early-thursday-morning/2011/12/05/gIQAqjnqWO_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 maybe my 25-30" at DCA will come true after all. It's pretty funny how just about every outlet is now lowering their snow call for the winter yet I suppose the potential may be there for an above average temp winter with close to normal snow if we get a few of these flukes strung together? Goes to show that snow calls are always risky and generally just a guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's pretty funny how just about every outlet is now lowering their snow call for the winter yet I suppose the potential may be there for an above average temp winter with close to normal snow if we get a few of these flukes strung together? Goes to show that snow calls are always risky and generally just a guess.... yeah, had to hear about that all morning from my co-workers... this would be a nice 1-2" IMO it it came to fruition and went very well for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 wes' post http://www.washingto...jnqWO_blog.html good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The dec 5 2009 snow event wasn't that cold either but we got 4-5 inches from what i recall. That to. Started as rain and was a daytime event Yep. It was rain over to snow by 10am and ended up with 3-4 inches. East of 95 and the beltway did not make out as good with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 it is already written but has not yet appeared... so should "my people" get with "your people" to have me cover for you when you are out during future events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 so should "my people" get with "your people" to have me cover for you when you are out during future events Only if they think it will absolutely postively snow really heavily, then you'd be the man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Only if they think it will absolutely postively snow really heavily, then you'd be the man. zing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Only if they think it will absolutely postively snow really heavily, then you'd be the man. I'm thinking your heart's not in this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I like the sounds of the low exiting along the VA/NC border. 12Z GFS wanted to something very similar. Perfect track, just lacking a High and its associated cold air to the north. As we all know, 0Z will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I hope this isn't a Dec 5 2009 like event. We maybe had 1" from that storm in the valley...everyone around us was 4-7". Very disappointing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 well, if nothing else, I like this pattern (cut-off 5H lows traversing the country) and hope it sticks around for the rest of the winter; I'll take my chances with temps down the road even if this one doesn't work out the 12/09 pattern came back to feed us later in that winter, so I've got my fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z euro ens mean has the low in about the same spot, but the 0c is about 50 miles west of th op near dc after this the 0c crashes east and dc is in the 0.25" ens mean at hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z euro ens mean has the low in about the same spot, but the 0c is about 50 miles west of th op near dc after this the 0c crashes east and dc is in the 0.25" ens mean at hr 72 slp position is very good news I'm not so concerned about the temps because the mean is a bunch of different runs and that average will rarely capture a storm with the dynamics the op run shows I think we are in a surprisingly good position for the event....which could change in 20 minutes, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I wonder what the frequency is for DC to have a winter month both above average in snow and temps? It depends to some extent on how you define "above average in snow and temps", but here is what I just did: For the entirety of the snow record in DC (it dates to the winter of 1884-85, but with December 1886 and December 1887 not available, for some reason), I calculated the average temperature and snow for December, January, and February. Those averages are as follows: December: Temp, 38.3 degrees; snow, 3.0 inches. January: Temp, 35.3 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches. February: Temp, 36.9 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches. For each month, I then determined how many years exceeded both of those averages, and divided the number of those years by the total number of years available for each month. Results are: December: 11 of 125 years, or 8.8%. January: 13 of 127 years, or 10.2%. February: 10 of 127 years, or 7.9%. Composite percentage is 9.0%. Using the above temperature definitions, the most snow that has ever fallen in DC in a month that was above average in temperature was February 1983, when 21.0 inches of snow were recorded, with an average temperature of 38.7 degrees. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It depends to some extent on how you define "above average in snow and temps", but here is what I just did: For the entirety of the snow record in DC (it dates to the winter of 1884-85, but with December 1886 and December 1887 not available, for some reason), I calculated the average temperature and snow for December, January, and February. Those averages are as follows: December: Temp, 38.3 degrees; snow, 3.0 inches. January: Temp, 35.3 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches. February: Temp, 36.9 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches. For each month, I then determined how many years exceeded both of those averages, and divided the number of those years by the total number of years available for each month. Results are: December: 11 of 125 years, or 8.8%. January: 13 of 127 years, or 10.2%. February: 10 of 127 years, or 7.9%. Composite percentage is 9.0%. Using the above temperature definitions, the most snow that has ever fallen in DC in a month that was above average in temperature was February 1983, when 21.0 inches of snow were recorded, with an average temperature of 38.7 degrees. . My "RodneyS/Bat signal" post from earlier was removed, but I knew you'd have the stats for this. Thanks for the post. Definitely interesting reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW MAINLY FROM WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE WARRANTED ACROSS THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 thru 39 hrs, 18z NAM is coller than 12Z thru 45 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It depends to some extent on how you define "above average in snow and temps", but here is what I just did: For the entirety of the snow record in DC (it dates to the winter of 1884-85, but with December 1886 and December 1887 not available, for some reason), I calculated the average temperature and snow for December, January, and February. Those averages are as follows: December: Temp, 38.3 degrees; snow, 3.0 inches. January: Temp, 35.3 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches. February: Temp, 36.9 degrees; snow, 5.7 inches. For each month, I then determined how many years exceeded both of those averages, and divided the number of those years by the total number of years available for each month. Results are: December: 11 of 125 years, or 8.8%. January: 13 of 127 years, or 10.2%. February: 10 of 127 years, or 7.9%. Composite percentage is 9.0%. Using the above temperature definitions, the most snow that has ever fallen in DC in a month that was above average in temperature was February 1983, when 21.0 inches of snow were recorded, with an average temperature of 38.7 degrees. . Thanks Rodney for following up on this question...9% sounds low but in my eyes that's actually a pretty high number considering our location.....and oh yeah for the person who deleted my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wet 18z NAM run for DC through 48hrs, already over an inch of rain. Nice stats, Rodney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 subtle changes continue on 18z NAM that I believe will be better for us, even though I always caution everyone else to wait for the run to finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wet 18z NAM run for DC through 48hrs, already over an inch of rain. Nice stats, Rodney. but that's the 1st round; it's down to our S/SW that will bring us the snow, if at all (but I know you knew that) I don't know how much, if any, a stronger initial system will mean for us on the part that counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 seems faster than 12z too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 bigger bomb this run for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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