Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i think almost every model crashes 850s way quicker than the surface so it's something to consider. this is one run... we are going to have to pay attention to thermal profiles tomorrow and Wednesday....even then in these situations there is guesswork involved as to when the changeover happens....It is tough where we are, but a quick pasty bomb is probably the best case scenario we can wish for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The more detailed euro maps seem to imply changeover around 3-4z for DC proper and probably 3 hrs where it may be coming down good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 we are going to have to pay attention to thermal profiles tomorrow and Wednesday....even then in these situations there is guesswork involved as to when the changeover happens....It is tough where we are, but a quick pasty bomb is probably the best case scenario we can wish for yeah i agree. i dont think it's necessarily a wrong solution but it's close to the best possible perhaps. still one of those situations where a small shift north does some serious damage to our prospects in the beltway etc. i dont get the need to throw out numbers etc unless people want to claim they called it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 yeah i agree. i dont think it's necessarily a wrong solution but it's close to the best possible perhaps. still one of those situations where a small shift north does some serious damage to our prospects in the beltway etc. i dont get the need to throw out numbers etc unless people want to claim they called it first. I don't have access to any detailed euro stuff. Where does the low exit the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Richmond gets clobbered with QPF..they might even see something. Over 1.00 inch of qpf in 6 hour period. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't have access to any detailed euro stuff. Where does the low exit the coast? va/nc border -- the track is ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 yeah i agree. i dont think it's necessarily a wrong solution but it's close to the best possible perhaps. still one of those situations where a small shift north does some serious damage to our prospects in the beltway etc. i dont get the need to throw out numbers etc unless people want to claim they called it first. You probably haven't looked at the draft of my article. I was pretty careful not to yet make a call though I do think the odds are more for a minor even for us guys (1-3) than for more than that and could easily see us getting screwed. North and west with elevation my be a different story. We're still going to be fighting boundary layer issues. If it really snows hard, we can overcome that and the temps might actually fall to near freezing. If the precip is lighter, we probably won't get close to freezing fast enough to get much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The more detailed euro maps seem to imply changeover around 3-4z for DC proper and probably 3 hrs where it may be coming down good. As Ian said, this run is a 1-3" run for the cities and probably a best case scenario....quick bomb, night, perfect track....I'm still not optimistic in my location....i got around 0.5" on 10/29....I'd probably put the over/under around there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phils1 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Detailed video discussion on the latest 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM model runs at http://spam.com/category/phl/ with a focus on the much more similar handling by the models of the upper level system associated with this potential storm. Both models suggest snow late Wednesday night and early Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region, including the I-95 corridor, with some accumulations possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well its Dec 5 again and we are all looking at a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 zwyts is a tad more bullish than I expected. Perhaps time to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You probably haven't looked at the draft of my article. I was pretty careful not to yet make a call though I do think the odds are more for a minor even for us guys (1-3) than for more than that and could easily see us getting screwed. North and west with elevation my be a different story. We're still going to be fighting boundary layer issues. If it really snows hard, we can overcome that and the temps might actually fall to near freezing. If the precip is lighter, we probably won't get close to freezing fast enough to get much. i didnt realize you sent it. just took a look.. agree of course. i was not implying that because the 32 line is well northwest on the euro we are screwed just because of that -- i think the euro does that quite often. i remember it did that in jan last yr as one instance. more or less it's still going to be a battle to get the cold air in on time. i think the models are closing in on a consensus track at least but there could very well be more shifts. i want to see at least a run or two more of the euro close to that before even believing it as it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 As Ian said, this run is a 1-3" run for the cities and probably a best case scenario....quick bomb, night, perfect track....I'm still not optimistic in my location....i got around 0.5" on 10/29....I'd probably put the over/under around there.... I feel like this is one of those times where everything is kind of fluid and they may be more subtle shifts coming so it's tough to get too excited right now. You didn't do much worse than me on Oct 29..lol, so I think we are both hoping for a few inches here. It's been so horrifically boring, that even mood flakes would be welcomed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well its Dec 5 again and we are all looking at a snowstorm the justin berk storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 As Ian said, this run is a 1-3" run for the cities and probably a best case scenario....quick bomb, night, perfect track....I'm still not optimistic in my location....i got around 0.5" on 10/29....I'd probably put the over/under around there.... I do like the location of the 850 on the Euro. Consolidating around Ocean City at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 the justin berk storm well every storm is the justin berk storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i didnt realize you sent it. just took a look.. agree of course. i was not implying that because the 32 line is well northwest on the euro we are screwed just because of that -- i think the euro does that quite often. i remember it did that in jan last yr as one instance. more or less it's still going to be a battle to get the cold air in on time. i think the models are closing in on a consensus track at least but there could very well be more shifts. i want to see at least a run or two more of the euro close to that before even believing it as it is now. I agree about the euro, it has a warm bias from the surface to 850mb (I think). It's QPF is hard to beat. Jason is now prepping the piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 zwyts is a tad more bullish than I expected. Perhaps time to pay attention. a bit maybe...but most of my comments are based on this run rather than a prediction...it was a very good run...perhaps as good as we can expect...I am not predicting that this run comes to fruition, but it does show one way even in this crappy pattern that track and dynamics can overcome it to some extent..but i am not calling for 1-3" in the cities....I still think that is kind of the best case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 surprised no one has mentioned (or I missed it) how NAM'ish Euro is that's a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 well every storm is the justin berk storm broken clock is useful every now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 surprised no one has mentioned (or I missed it) how NAM'ish Euro is that's a good sign it is already written but has not yet appeared... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 it is already written but has not yet appeared... I need you to be excited. ASAP. I like the look of this one so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 here is hour 63 of the euro zoomed in 32 line is red on the first map 850's surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 va/nc border -- the track is ideal Wow. That is exacly what I was hoping for. Not only is it ideal but it is also a classic track. Many a storm has snowed on us with that track and it almost seems likely considering what all the models are showing. NAM will likely give us more promise in a couple of hours. There's 60+ degree water just off the coast of VA. Gotta wonder if the low deepens quicker upon exit that what is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 How do I access the write-up on CWG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 here is something weird...it has not been cold at all this winter but when there has been some cold air around(even marginal), there has been a snowstorm tied to it. maybe this is the winter where we dont have many windows of opportunity but we we do, we score? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It is a good s/w track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 How do I access the write-up on CWG? I'll post the link when the story is posted. It's getting prepped now. Here's the site if you want to access the forecasts besides when I write. Ian is one of the forecasters so is Scudz. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 The dec 5 2009 snow event wasn't that cold either but we got 4-5 inches from what i recall. That to. Started as rain and was a daytime event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.