SNO Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I remain confident DCA will have at least 1 inch of snow prior to December 21st 2011. You may want to get your measuring sticks ready about 3am Thursday December 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't think that line means much other than the boundary layer is something that needs to be paid attention to and perhaps other parts of the column as well.....Even if that line is in Canada, once it changes over, we are 31-33 degrees probably i think almost every model crashes 850s way quicker than the surface so it's something to consider. this is one run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Wunderground maps show several inches of snow for just about all of us on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I remain confident DCA will have at least 1 inch of snow prior to December 21st 2011. You may want to get your measuring sticks ready about 3am Thursday December 8th You told us "agony" awaits, 3 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro is close enough for sure. We won't benefit from any radiational cooling but I agree with zwts, 31-33 after the change is pretty likely. I like the strength of the ull on the euro too. There is good potential to get a bonus ull thumping. I can't get rid of the hunch that the ull is going to end up stronger than what is being modeled. I'll find out the asnwer in real time as I don't sleep on wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You told us "agony" awaits, 3 weeks ago. No worries "agony" still awaits...but enjoy at least 1 inch of snow prior to the December 21st 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 at this point I am pretty much bear hugging whatever the Euro says in 30-45 minutes Still bear hugging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro is interesting. Temperature issues even out this way though. Night time is the right time I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro is close enough for sure. We won't benefit from any radiational cooling but I agree with zwts, 31-33 after the change is pretty likely. I like the strength of the ull on the euro too. There is good potential to get a bonus ull thumping. I can't get rid of the hunch that the ull is going to end up stronger than what is being modeled. I'll find out the asnwer in real time as I don't sleep on wednesday night. Have to be a positive that we are trending in the right direction as the storm nears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The more detailed euro maps seem to imply changeover around 3-4z for DC proper and probably 3 hrs where it may be coming down good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 we are going to have to pay attention to thermal profiles tomorrow and Wednesday....even then in these situations there is guesswork involved as to when the changeover happens....It is tough where we are, but a quick pasty bomb is probably the best case scenario we can wish for yeah i agree. i dont think it's necessarily a wrong solution but it's close to the best possible perhaps. still one of those situations where a small shift north does some serious damage to our prospects in the beltway etc. i dont get the need to throw out numbers etc unless people want to claim they called it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 yeah i agree. i dont think it's necessarily a wrong solution but it's close to the best possible perhaps. still one of those situations where a small shift north does some serious damage to our prospects in the beltway etc. i dont get the need to throw out numbers etc unless people want to claim they called it first. I don't have access to any detailed euro stuff. Where does the low exit the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Richmond gets clobbered with QPF..they might even see something. Over 1.00 inch of qpf in 6 hour period. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I don't have access to any detailed euro stuff. Where does the low exit the coast? va/nc border -- the track is ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 yeah i agree. i dont think it's necessarily a wrong solution but it's close to the best possible perhaps. still one of those situations where a small shift north does some serious damage to our prospects in the beltway etc. i dont get the need to throw out numbers etc unless people want to claim they called it first. You probably haven't looked at the draft of my article. I was pretty careful not to yet make a call though I do think the odds are more for a minor even for us guys (1-3) than for more than that and could easily see us getting screwed. North and west with elevation my be a different story. We're still going to be fighting boundary layer issues. If it really snows hard, we can overcome that and the temps might actually fall to near freezing. If the precip is lighter, we probably won't get close to freezing fast enough to get much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phils1 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Detailed video discussion on the latest 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM model runs at http://spam.com/category/phl/ with a focus on the much more similar handling by the models of the upper level system associated with this potential storm. Both models suggest snow late Wednesday night and early Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region, including the I-95 corridor, with some accumulations possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well its Dec 5 again and we are all looking at a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 zwyts is a tad more bullish than I expected. Perhaps time to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You probably haven't looked at the draft of my article. I was pretty careful not to yet make a call though I do think the odds are more for a minor even for us guys (1-3) than for more than that and could easily see us getting screwed. North and west with elevation my be a different story. We're still going to be fighting boundary layer issues. If it really snows hard, we can overcome that and the temps might actually fall to near freezing. If the precip is lighter, we probably won't get close to freezing fast enough to get much. i didnt realize you sent it. just took a look.. agree of course. i was not implying that because the 32 line is well northwest on the euro we are screwed just because of that -- i think the euro does that quite often. i remember it did that in jan last yr as one instance. more or less it's still going to be a battle to get the cold air in on time. i think the models are closing in on a consensus track at least but there could very well be more shifts. i want to see at least a run or two more of the euro close to that before even believing it as it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 As Ian said, this run is a 1-3" run for the cities and probably a best case scenario....quick bomb, night, perfect track....I'm still not optimistic in my location....i got around 0.5" on 10/29....I'd probably put the over/under around there.... I feel like this is one of those times where everything is kind of fluid and they may be more subtle shifts coming so it's tough to get too excited right now. You didn't do much worse than me on Oct 29..lol, so I think we are both hoping for a few inches here. It's been so horrifically boring, that even mood flakes would be welcomed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well its Dec 5 again and we are all looking at a snowstorm the justin berk storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 As Ian said, this run is a 1-3" run for the cities and probably a best case scenario....quick bomb, night, perfect track....I'm still not optimistic in my location....i got around 0.5" on 10/29....I'd probably put the over/under around there.... I do like the location of the 850 on the Euro. Consolidating around Ocean City at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 the justin berk storm well every storm is the justin berk storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i didnt realize you sent it. just took a look.. agree of course. i was not implying that because the 32 line is well northwest on the euro we are screwed just because of that -- i think the euro does that quite often. i remember it did that in jan last yr as one instance. more or less it's still going to be a battle to get the cold air in on time. i think the models are closing in on a consensus track at least but there could very well be more shifts. i want to see at least a run or two more of the euro close to that before even believing it as it is now. I agree about the euro, it has a warm bias from the surface to 850mb (I think). It's QPF is hard to beat. Jason is now prepping the piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 surprised no one has mentioned (or I missed it) how NAM'ish Euro is that's a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 well every storm is the justin berk storm broken clock is useful every now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 surprised no one has mentioned (or I missed it) how NAM'ish Euro is that's a good sign it is already written but has not yet appeared... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 it is already written but has not yet appeared... I need you to be excited. ASAP. I like the look of this one so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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