aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro is out to 42 Is it showing rain yet? most other models get the moisture in by that hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I could make a reasonable argument otherwise, but I'll hold my tongue i know it's not just you but we used to have some sort of rule about just posting a map or posting "it's out to such and such". any analysis, even a crappy one, would be preferrable to that imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 hr 48 the trough is a little further south west than 0z but a little faster than the gfs at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 48 hr Euro 850 temps and surface http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h48&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 looks like it's a little slower than 0z.. warmer too at 60. snow up in elevation well nw at that pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 wow.... I love it when Matt does that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 euro hasnt been that consistent yet.. tho we're due to be in the max stripe i guess. ding ding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 In DC, 2 inches on Dec 8th is alot of snow. 2 inches is a lot of snow for the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 ding ding 4 inches for us?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 like .5"+ in that 6 hr panel ending 66.. not all snow but maybe half? then some ull love after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 wow.... explodes at 66. im just looking for a tail end flake, edit: judging at 72 i might get a brief changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks like a quick hit of S+ for a few hours...esp nw burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 2 inches is a lot of snow for the heart of winter. No it isn't, not for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 4 inches for us?. i dunno.. 850s crash but they are northwest to start. would probably take under but maybe just under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 like .5"+ in that 6 hr panel ending 66.. not all snow but maybe half? then some ull love after. track still same as 0z but just deeper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i dunno.. 850s crash but they are well northwest to start. would probably take under but maybe just under. I'll take 2-4" in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It is moisture laden...we get pasted between 60 and 66 hours....thermal profiles will be huge...the 850 line is well southeast of everyone by hour 66, but the sfc is still marginal and I am guessing the column will be an issue for most/some....but certainly the implication is we all go to snow at some point in that window Nice. Nighttime hours will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 problem is the euro has had no continuity and if there is any it will go north more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 hr.60 0c from roa. -cho to just west of dc hr 66 0c from wiliamsburg, va to sby dc ~-3C DC+0.50" RIC 1" mostly rain though hr 72 has ric to dc in .0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i dunno.. 850s crash but they are northwest to start. would probably take under but maybe just under. I'd go 2" at this point with the Euro on board...sorta. Wonder what Wes is thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'd go 2" at this point with the Euro on board...sorta. Wonder what Wes is thinking i'd take the under. unless the sun doesnt rise. going to take a while to cool the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 inpressive qpf for the entire event. the whole state most va and most of md. 1"+ ..... sw. va to ric to the bay 2" totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Regarding Ians post about continuity... perfect setup for some disappointment at 0z beware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 the euro is pretty straightforward.....it just depends how much precip we waste on rain/mix and where you reside....it would be a matter of waiting for the changeover....and when it does how heavy is it and how well does it stick.....but even me and you are probably all snow for at least 3-4 hours based on this run Well I'm on Capitol Hill on the hilly side (that is, the center/central part of the neighborhood); I should be okay, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i'd take the under. unless the sun doesnt rise. going to take a while to cool the surface. euro has the surface 32 line in pa and wv through the heaviest precip and to the nw of the cities as it ends. probably not exactly how it turns out in heavy precip but temps cool aloft a lot quicker than at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 the euro is pretty straightforward.....it just depends how much precip we waste on rain/mix and where you reside....it would be a matter of waiting for the changeover....and when it does how heavy is it and how well does it stick.....but even me and you are probably all snow for at least 3-4 hours based on this run yesterday it completely missed us to the south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'd go 2" at this point with the Euro on board...sorta. Wonder what Wes is thinking Wes hadn't seen the euro. My write up said we had potential for snow, probably a minor event but nothing was yet assured. I may have to tweak it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 not really unless it is light....it will stick easily...after dark, favorable sun angle....it is just a matter of waiting for the changeover...once it changes, any mod/hvy snow will stick quickly and easily lol, the sun comment was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 euro has the surface 32 line in pa and wv through the heaviest precip and to the nw of the cities as it ends. probably not exactly how it turns out in heavy precip but temps cool aloft a lot quicker than at the surface. The Euro def has a warm surface bias but even taken verbatim concerned trees might be more of a concern than roads especially outside the beltway, taking pepco into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12z?....0z last night didn't miss us at all yes.. see like page 2. the ens mean was north/mild but the op was pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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