NJwinter23 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yeah. There is nothing to suppress it. If anything I think it comes N/W a little more. Besides that mammoth polar vortex cruising into eastern Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 this is honestly the most important storm of my life. This reminds me of the january 2002 snowstorm funny....there are actually quite a bit of similarities...that happened in a pretty much awful pattern not unlike this one....The Atlantic was a bit better and it was the heart of winter though.....Honestly there might not be a better analog than that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Besides that mammoth polar vortex cruising into eastern Canada? Too far north though right? I mean the 09-10 winter the PV is what saved us down here and cursed NE. But the Vort was much further SE of what is being shown on these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 funny....there are actually quite a bit of similarities...that happened in a pretty much awful pattern not unlike this one....The Atlantic was a bit better and it was the heart of winter though.....Honestly there might not be a better analog than that storm lol...well done Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Doesn't look promising for more than some wet flakes outside of the western hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Doesn't look promising for more than some wet flakes outside of the western hills. I think there is promise for more than that....but that isn't a bad tack to take with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Like near 100% of the members are NW of OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 hopefully ill get a cartop dusting to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I could try to wax eloquent about blending climo and ensemble guidance and pattern recognition, but at this point I am pretty much bear hugging whatever the Euro says in 30-45 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 hopefully ill get a cartop dusting to end the date is pretty problematic for us given the setup and pattern...maybe we can get an inch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I could try to wax eloquent about blending climo and ensemble guidance and pattern recognition, but at this point I am pretty much bear hugging whatever the Euro says in 30-45 minutes euro hasnt been that consistent yet.. tho we're due to be in the max stripe i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 the date is pretty problematic for us given the setup and pattern...maybe we can get an inch.... I wonder what the frequency is for DC to have a winter month both above average in snow and temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I could try to wax eloquent about blending climo and ensemble guidance and pattern recognition, but at this point I am pretty much bear hugging whatever the Euro says in 30-45 minutes I'm with you on that for this situation. Obviously, this isn't an October situation where it's harder to snow with marginal cold, but it's not like we have a monster hp around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 the date is pretty problematic for us given the setup and pattern...maybe we can get an inch.... I'd put 2 inches as max potential for us with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'd put 2 inches as max potential for us with this setup. In DC, 2 inches on Dec 8th is alot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I wonder what the frequency is for DC to have a winter month both above average in snow and temps? quick review shows BWI did it in 12/07, but I'm in no mood to want this DEC to look anything like that one EDIT: DCA did it too, barely as to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I wonder what the frequency is for DC to have a winter month both above average in snow and temps? WAG: 15%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'd put 2 inches as max potential for us with this setup. max is higher than that... but we'll likely get way less than 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 max is higher than that... but we'll likely get way less than 2" What about IAD/Leesburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 What about IAD/Leesburg? throwing out numbers right now is kind of foolish. but, more than dca... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 max is higher than that... but we'll likely get way less than 2" I wouldn't mind just an inch.. a stretch I know, but even a simple inch of snow on the grass would be really nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I dont think the 12z CMC would result in much...540 line never makes it to DC and Balt, and the precip is light for the most part... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 throwing out numbers right now is kind of foolish. but, more than dca... both Dec 09 and Oct took forever and a day to start seeing a changeover. 2" would be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro is out to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro is out to 12 should we do play by play here?....in one post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 quick review shows BWI did it in 12/07, but I'm in no mood to want this DEC to look anything like that one EDIT: DCA did it too, barely as to snow Ninos don't apply in relevance And in reality it was just a crapload of sleet which isn't as affected accum-wise in the DCA melt-o-climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Euro is out to 12 what's it say, what's it say..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 should we do play by play here?....in one post? p/p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Ninos don't apply in relevance And in reality it was just a crapload of sleet which isn't as affected accum-wise in the DCA melt-o-climate. 07-08 was a Nina and that snow from Dec 07 came from a strong clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 we need a model thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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