FAILDC#

[Ji]

sorry...even if its made up....we need something to track

[CranberryWX]

Thanks Ji, you're right about something to track...maybe a few wet flakes in my area as it pulls away. I like the trend of the precip lately though, we just need the cold to go with it.

[aldie 22]

Euro has a bit of snow as well to our SE...interesting for a minute at least

[mitchnick]

JI, you traitor

[WVclimo]

6Z GFS

[aldie 22]

I'm certain there is some index out there that says that this storm can't happen as anything but rain....we will find out what index that is soon I'm sure.

[aldie 22]

6Z GFS

FRINGED.....darn it!!

[WVclimo]

FRINGED.....darn it!!

Here. Is this better ?

[aldie 22]

Here. Is this better ?

[mitchnick]

Here. Is this better ?

I would expect storms to look like this this winter....narrow strips of decent snow

We all know being the bull's eye at this range is the kiss of death

[Avdave]

So our hood should look like this come Friday morning ?

[tombo82685]

I'm certain there is some index out there that says that this storm can't happen as anything but rain....we will find out what index that is soon I'm sure.

if this does happen, it just shows, that those indexes are mute if you have the thread the needle type track, shows you can get snow in a warm looking pattern.

[BethesdaWX]

^{I'm praying this comes to fruition GFS looks closer to how I invisioned it than the Euro.}

[tombo82685]

^{I'm praying this comes to fruition GFS looks closer to how I invisioned it than the Euro.}

The euro gives you guys some lgt snow or flurries also, just no where near as wound up as the gfs, Wouldn;t take much for it to trend back west, but with that its going to bring the warm temps. Gfs is prob the perfect track imho, just cold enough to keep it snow.

[BethesdaWX]

if this does happen, it just shows, that those indexes are mute if you have the thread the needle type track, shows you can get snow in a warm looking pattern.

If I recall correctly (could be wrong) March 2009, during a raging +AO and +NAO we had a storm dump 12"+ in Lower Southern MD.

[mitchnick]

The euro gives you guys some lgt snow or flurries also, just no where near as wound up as the gfs, Wouldn;t take much for it to trend back west, but with that its going to bring the warm temps. Gfs is prob the perfect track imho, just cold enough to keep it snow.

thanks Tom

GFS certainly is the perfect track for this kind of system

I see the 12Z NAM is putting it's 2 cents in with having the northern stream come through first and leaving a cut off (how many of those have we seen this fall/early winter) poised to come across the SE states then off the coast

still way to early for the NAM, but at 84 hrs appears to be at least on the same page as 6Z GFS

[ORH_wxman]

if this does happen, it just shows, that those indexes are mute if you have the thread the needle type track, shows you can get snow in a warm looking pattern.

Once in a blue moon, a threat can work out in a cruddy pattern. I doubt this is one of those times though. This pattern is quite hostile.

[tombo82685]

If I recall correctly (could be wrong) March 2009, during a raging +AO and +NAO we had a storm dump 12"+ in Lower Southern MD.

o yea its possible, it has happened before, its just not as common as when teleconnections are favorable. The cips top analog is 89, which hit your area up through extreme se pa , then on the cape with snow, missed everyone else on north.

[Ellinwood]

Starting to look like a legit. threat despite still being borderline for snow in most areas on the models.

06z GFS suggesting a wet SN/+SN for some on Thursday (108hr):

[tombo82685]

Once in a blue moon, a threat can work out in a cruddy pattern. I doubt this is one of those times though. This pattern is quite hostile.

im not saying its going to happen, just establishing the fact that we sometimes still can get snow when teleconnections are not favorable for it.

[BethesdaWX]

After the continuous misses with the -NAO last winter, New England getting hammered, etc.. It's our turn to cash in while they sit in the shaft, +NAO or not

[Kmlwx]

After the continuous misses with the -NAO last winter, New England getting hammered, etc.. It's our turn to cash in while they sit in the shaft, +NAO or not

I don't know...we are still getting repaid for 09-10

[showmethesnow]

We know how dependable the NAM is at 84 hrs.

But the 500's have a pretty interesting look if you are hoping for snow.

[mattie g]

I logged on this morning just to see some of the general banter, not at all expecting talk of a storm. Nice surprise to see talk of a threat - whether realistic or not. Problem is, I'd be OK with no threat - certainly more OK than having snow potential, only to see it fizzle.

[Eeyore]No potential for snow, no potential for a letdown.[/Eeyore]

[usedtobe]

Once in a blue moon, a threat can work out in a cruddy pattern. I doubt this is one of those times though. This pattern is quite hostile.

It is a hostile pattern but. it is pretty much the perfect track. Lots can go wrong and we know how the GFS tends to sometimes come northward a little as we approach the event. The enembles are all over the place. This may be out best chance this december as the ao weakens a little and then strengthens markedly on the progs later towards mid month according to the latest super ens mean. I did a post looking at the analogs based on the D+11 cpc ens mean. It's not a pretty picture. I posted it in the thread with my CWG Dec snow discussion.

[mappy]

[Kmlwx]

You rained on my parade.

[mappy]

You rained on my parade.

its going to rain on everyone's parade

[ORH_wxman]

It is a hostile pattern but. it is pretty much the perfect track. Lots can go wrong and we know how the GFS tends to sometimes come northward a little as we approach the event. The enembles are all over the place. This may be out best chance this december as the ao weakens a little and then strengthens markedly on the progs later towards mid month according to the latest super ens mean. I did a post looking at the analogs based on the D+11 cpc ens mean. It's not a pretty picture. I posted it in the thread with my CWG Dec snow discussion.

That's pretty much what I was saying inb the NE subforum....its been a hit or miss thing on the models the last 2-3 days, but overall its a very difficult system to get snow out of. It has to be that 1 in 50 or 1 in 100 track...there isn't a ton of moisture on the cold side since the vortmax is deamplifying and a cold conveyor belt doesn't really get established until the last second. Its almost like a narrow strip of WAA precip that is cold enough for frozen...but if the system ends up a bit more robust, then that could change...but then you have the catch 22 of a more robust system being further W.

[Ji]

It is a hostile pattern but. it is pretty much the perfect track. Lots can go wrong and we know how the GFS tends to sometimes come northward a little as we approach the event. The enembles are all over the place. This may be out best chance this december as the ao weakens a little and then strengthens markedly on the progs later towards mid month according to the latest super ens mean. I did a post looking at the analogs based on the D+11 cpc ens mean. It's not a pretty picture. I posted it in the thread with my CWG Dec snow discussion.

if we get an 8-12 storm lol, i think would be okay with the super cruddy ensembles and CWG would actually get to pay you for an article people would read.

You should hope this happens