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Early December Pattern Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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I was looking at the Brockton coop during the 1987 season and there are amounts like 4.02", 0.71", 0.31"...etc. This was the first time I noticed this for some reason.

Oh that is bizarre. I've never seen that. You sure you didn't just look at liquid precip? lol.

I'm not sure why they have hundreths.

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Oh that is bizarre. I've never seen that. You sure you didn't just look at liquid precip? lol.

I'm not sure why they have hundreths.

I know right? LOL. I just selected snowfall. It's annoying though. I haven't looked at that site in about 5 months, but I don't remember seeing that before.

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I know right? LOL. I just selected snowfall. It's annoying though. I haven't looked at that site in about 5 months, but I don't remember seeing that before.

I checked Blue Hill coop and they don't seem to have the same issue. I wonder if the weird decimals are unique to the Brockton station.

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As long as the teleconnectors stay as current, this will be a recurring theme. Although the mid month torch has been signaled and HM called it a long time ago.

This whole month has been a torch. Pick any time period and you will be right...lol.

The next 2 weeks + will be above normal.

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2 winters in a row it seems that have busted most of the well regarded long rangers.

We still have 3 more months to go. January is making me nervous, but it also has been a month that can easily flip, so we'll have to see how it goes.

Goes to show you that we have a long way to go for long range.

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We still have 3 more months to go. January is making me nervous, but it also has been a month that can easily flip, so we'll have to see how it goes.

Goes to show you that we have a long way to go for long range.

I think in a week we'll have a good signal on the first half of January. If the reaching for straws you described becomes a solid signal it's one thing bit if we're status quo a week from now, I think 1/1-10 is in trouble.

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It still has above normal heights. Until i see it go away, it's the same old story. 2 weeks ago, it had the same thing.

Just to show you what I mean, the EC ensembles had 850 temp anomalies near -1C in the 11-15 day centered on Dec 6th. The 1-5 day centered on dec 6 is now +4C 850 temp anomalies.

Here is something to laugh at. GEFS were about -3C 850 temp anomaly in the 11-15 day! That is a 7C epic fail error folks.

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Just to show you what I mean, the EC ensembles had 850 temp anomalies near -1C in the 11-15 day centered on Dec 6th. The 1-5 day centered on dec 6 is now +4C 850 temp anomalies.

Here is something to laugh at. GEFS were about -3C 850 temp anomaly in the 11-15 day! That is a 7C epic fail error folks.

GEFS/GFS have been terrible. Remember they were giving us hope for early December 2 weeks ago. In all cases models are busting too cold and warmth is winning. Carry the same fail rate forward and we will literally be in tshirts while going over the river and through the woods to grandmothers house.

The pattern is very stable. This torch is going nowhere, in fact it looks like mid to late month perhaps will be worse, pretty hard to comprehend since some places will be close to +14 on the month after today.

Oh yeah!

Where did you find the departures? I'm hoping we go double digit departures positive this month and smash every record. Go big or go home.

Jerry I've been perusing menus for the last day. Looks like my call from pre-Thanksgiving is coming to pass.

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GEFS/GFS have been terrible. Remember they were giving us hope for early December 2 weeks ago. In all cases models are busting too cold and warmth is winning. Carry the same fail rate forward and we will literally be in tshirts while going over the river and through the woods to grandmothers house.

Where did you find the departures? I'm hoping we go double digit departures positive this month and smash every record. Go big or go home.

Jerry I've been perusing menus for the last day. Looks like my call from pre-Thanksgiving is coming to pass.

orh is +9.2 for Dec so far, incredible.

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orh is +9.2 for Dec so far, incredible.

Also impressive...

BOS +7.5

BDL +6.8

PVD +5.6

Expect those to go up a bit today. Those 40s for highs this weekend will sure feel cold! One thing you can just about lock in is another well above normal month unless we can somehow average -3 for the entire second half of the month.

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