Early December Pattern Discussion

[CoastalWx]

Well this is interesting. The euro argues for milder wx from the 15-19th while the GFS argues for colder than normal wx..especially 17-19th.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well this is interesting. The euro argues for milder wx from the 15-19th while the GFS argues for colder than normal wx..especially 17-19th.

Well golly gee..I wonder which one is going to be right

[CoastalWx]

Well golly gee..I wonder which one is going to be right

Just something to note down the road.

Man you really are losing it.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just something to note down the road.

Man you really are losing it.

How often has the Euro been warm and the GFS cold and the GFS correct?

[CoastalWx]

How often has the Euro been warm and the GFS cold and the GFS correct?

LOL, I'm not disagreeing, I'll go back in 10 days and look to see what happened. The EC ensembles are not 100% correct all the time either.

[Mr Torchey]

The pattern going forward looks atrocious, not to mention how bad the weeklies looked at the end of DEC (i know take with a grain of salt)

It is what it is, hopefully things turn around the second half of winter.

[Brian5671]

I'll trade a bad Dec for a better 2nd half, but we have to hope things change--we could torch the whole winter at this rate

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The pattern going forward looks atrocious, not to mention how bad the weeklies looked at the end of DEC (i know take with a grain of salt)

It is what it is, hopefully things turn around the second half of winter.

This place is going to be like the Walking Dead by mid January.

Forget all the nuisances...when the GFS doesn't show a single snow event for 384 hours you know it's toaster bath time.

[snowman21]

I'll trade a bad Dec for a better 2nd half, but we have to hope things change--we could torch the whole winter at this rate

That's what I was saying earlier, regarding the 2nd half. We're in a bit of a slump the past few years. The last good March I'd say was 2005. The past few years once pitchers and catchers report it's all over.

As far as forecasting the rest of the winter, continuity isn't that bad of a way to go unless there's some really good reason to do otherwise. Looking back over the last couple of years, above normal months outnumber below normal months 4:1 at the five SNE climo sites (it's 20-5 at BDL, BDR, BOS; 19-6 at ORH; and 18-7 at PVD). Furthermore, the average warm month was +2.5-2.8 while the average cold month was around -2.25 at BDL and BDR and about -1.5 at BOS, PVD, and ORH. Clearly we're in an established pattern, so if I were a betting man trying to predict the next few months these numbers would definitely be in the back of my mind.

[Mr Torchey]

Interested to see how the Euro Ens shake out today.

[Tropopause_Fold]

the euro is by no means cold in the long range, but at least it isn't showing +12C 850s anymore. looks above normal overall with some occasional days at or slightly below. but, at least at the current time (and in the last few runs) no monster +20 days.

[Tropopause_Fold]

and it would have a nice set-up going at day 10/11

[CoastalWx]

and it would have a nice set-up going at day 10/11

That's what we were hoping for back in Novie. Having the PV south enough to deflect colder air into the northeast. Of course, who knows with the d10 prog.

[Tropopause_Fold]

That's what we were hoping for back in Novie. Having the PV south enough to deflect colder air into the northeast. Of course, who knows with the d10 prog.

yeah weenie extrapolation but good look there with a nice polar high north of New England and a good antecedent airmass...and then that low ejecting out of the ohio valley.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

yeah weenie extrapolation but good look there with a nice polar high north of New England and a good antecedent airmass...and then that low ejecting out of the ohio valley.

Sadly as the Reverend will point out we've had nice looking situations at 10 days for the last 40.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Sadly as the Reverend will point out we've had nice looking situations at 10 days for the last 40.

i hear ya. certainly not saying it's locked.

at face value though, that's probably the best looking end to a euro run we've had so far this season at the CONUS level.

[Mr Torchey]

Sadly as the Reverend will point out we've had nice looking situations at 10 days for the last 40.

We have been trained, wisely so to not look at op runs past day 5 or 6, so while its nice to see the euro day 10 progs, I would imagine we all agree to stick with the euro ens, and also the GGEM in my opinion have sniffed out this pattern wonderfully.

[weathafella]

That PV on the pole is deep and sitting its fat azz down so it will take alot of work to move it. We may not have a winter this year....

[doug1991]

That PV on the pole is deep and sitting its fat azz down so it will take alot of work to move it. We may not have a winter this year....

i think i threw up in my mouth a little. It wouldnt suprise me if we didnt have a winter the way things are going right now. What good is

snow if it will be torched away in a few days. Sure its nice to look at but unless its going to be cold and stay a while whats the point.

[Neblizzard]

It's not like the pattern needs a simple "tweak", it needs a total fixing. Throw December in the crapper now. Both oceans look atrocious...

[weathafella]

I think 1999-00 ends up being a good analog. Cold and snowy mid January into February and winter is done by Pday. Starts after NYD and ends PD. A huge UK block got us very cold and stormy for 3-4 weeks and that was it.

[Go Kart Mozart]

That PV on the pole is deep and sitting its fat azz down so it will take alot of work to move it. We may not have a winter this year....

Has everyone seen Don Sutherland's thread on the main page? Superb research by Don regarding extreme +AO events in December (we recently smashed the all-time AO record). The upshot seems to be that with an extreme +AO in December, we see the rubber band snap the other way....sometimes for only a couple of weeks, sometimes in a big way!

[Mr Torchey]

• Euro ens?
  

[CoastalWx]

• Euro ens?
  

Once again they are much warmer than the GEFS. They continue the theme over the last 7-10 days. Flat ridge in the GOA with some troughing at times across the East, but I don't see anything that stands out.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Once again they are much warmer than the GEFS. They continue the theme over the last 7-10 days. Flat ridge in the GOA with some troughing at times across the East, but I don't see anything that stands out.

Like you said more than a week of this with the GEFS/Euro. I remember all of us talking about the GEFS giving us good gradient opportunities vs the Euro. It's 60 degrees out and has been almost all day. Euro FTW.

Winter in December FTL.

[ORH_wxman]

Wasn't there a storm in Feb '89 that did the same? It could be the one in '87 that you are taking about.

Feb 24-25, 1989....we were forecast to get 1-2 feet of snow back into the interior....we ended up with like 4 or 5 inches while western MA got nothing...and the Cape got blasted with 1-2 feet that we were supposed to get.

[CoastalWx]

Feb 24-25, 1989....we were forecast to get 1-2 feet of snow back into the interior....we ended up with like 4 or 5 inches while western MA got nothing...and the Cape got blasted with 1-2 feet that we were supposed to get.

That's it..bingo. I mix up the 1987 one. I remember the '89 one..I think I had near a foot in that.

BTW, do you know why the snow amounts in the Utah climo site are in the hundredths of inches? Is it some weird conversion thing?

[Typhoon Tip]

Feb 24-25, 1989....we were forecast to get 1-2 feet of snow back into the interior....we ended up with like 4 or 5 inches while western MA got nothing...and the Cape got blasted with 1-2 feet that we were supposed to get.

There were actually a couple or more of those in the mid to late 1980s. Not sure what it was about that decade but there verified an armada of storms that were supposed to be blizzards, but ticked SE ...like in the last 12 hours closing in on the event, nailing the Cape.

I think the '89 one was the worst for me. This sucker had Blizzard Watches posted by Walt Drag some 3 days prior to the event. I recall the ticker running by on the bottom of the weather channel warning civility to "take this event seriously", and impacts not felt sinse the Blizzard of '78. Real real gritty alert statments. Then, 2 days out, watches were elevated to warnings, replete with 'oh-my-godology'. The degree of adulaton and anticipation had no measure - it was incomprehensibly advertised. Blizzard Warnings at 2 days of lead, with constant impact-related statements by NWS.

I learned about disconnecting from the weather per that storm. I learned to redirect/mold my interest around all facets of weather. If it belches NW and rains, I take interest in investigating why. The pain/frustration was equally incomprehensible, and I will/would never let that happen again.

The storm was set to kick in during the evening hours and then all hell breaking lose overnight into dawn. I remember coming out of the gym ...sweaty, and steaming in the evening chill. I peered down to the street lamp over the parking lot outside the gymnasium, and light rain with occasional noodles, and a pellet or two were just beginning. Stepped back in for a couple more pick-up games, and fully expected to walk out in to on-coming snow.

Nope.

It was peaceful. There was just the distance sound of cool wind by your napes. Those noodles and pellets were no where to be found. The sky was a butterscotch hue, but just black at all the horizons. I knew that sky from Michigan growing up, and it sent bad omens presently. It always happened the night AFTER the snow storm was over, as cold air poured across the Lake Michigan, and laid a perpetual LE deck across the skies. It occurred to me then while walking home in the dark, but I immediately slipped into denial - it had to still be coming.

Harvey Leonard came on at 11:15 and I think I watched with my hands over my eyes with one ball peering out as he blithely twitched that "...I now think the heaviest part of this storm is going to be down near the Cape and the Islands"; his graphics had cut the 18-24" down to 2-4" for my area of Middlesex County. I just turned off the T.V. and went to bed, absolutely apoplectic and in disbelief. It had to be a mistake, and I was going to wake up to it after all.

If we had an inch we would have been lucky. The sun mockingly shown through cirrus as a dim orb, and blue was actually visible in the NW horizon shortly after dawn. Meanwhile, Cape Cod had white out snow with incredible wind ... for torturous ha-ha f* you hour after hour after rub-it-in hour that day into early night.

gosh just rehashing this makes me want to call NWS a bunch of boneheads. Talk about an unresolved childhood crisis - hahaha. Funny.

Yeah, the state of the art of modeling and interpretation has come a long way, no doubt.

[ORH_wxman]

That's it..bingo. I mix up the 1987 one. I remember the '89 one..I think I had near a foot in that.

BTW, do you know why the snow amounts in the Utah climo site are in the hundredths of inches? Is it some weird conversion thing?

I think only a trace shows up at 0.05...all the other snow amounts I've seen are in tenths.

[CoastalWx]

I think only a trace shows up at 0.05...all the other snow amounts I've seen are in tenths.

I was looking at the Brockton coop during the 1987 season and there are amounts like 4.02", 0.71", 0.31"...etc. This was the first time I noticed this for some reason.