CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Pattern looks pretty tough in the long range. Unless we depend on some sort of lucky event...I think the month may be a loss cause. I'm not being A Debbie D...but I'm not hanging my hopes on some sort of renegade lucky storm. Hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Pattern looks pretty tough in the long range. Unless we depend on some sort of lucky event...I think the month may be a loss cause. I'm not being A Debbie D...but I'm not hanging my hopes on some sort of renegade lucky storm. Hopefully I'm wrong. Our winter probably hinges on 12/30-1/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Our winter probably hinges on 12/30-1/15. The weeklies do try to get a ridge going in the Aleutians which is good, but the NAO is raging + too so it will be a battle. Hopefully the ridge can roll over into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 These forecasts are discouraging. Click on each one for the mjo prog. Let's hope we get help elsewhere. For now, the models do not want to play ball with me for a pattern change..... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml#for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 These forecasts are discouraging. Click on each one for the mjo prog. Let's hope we get help elsewhere. For now, the models do not want to play ball with me for a pattern change..... http://www.cpc.ncep....ar_wh.shtml#for Hopefully it goes into the COD and not phase 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hopefully it goes into the COD and not phase 4. Yeah the EURO is the worst case....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I am done. This is completely worthles, a waste of time and unhealthy. This winter has comepletely gone into the shi tter. I am done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I am done. This is completely worthles, a waste of time and unhealthy. This winter has comepletely gone into the shi tter. I am done I'm not far from that point..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I wouldn't throw the towel on the whole winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm not far from that point..... There's no reason to spend all this time on here..there's nothing positive, you get excited..you think a colder winter pattern might set in..and then the models completely take it away from you. The Euro weeklies are awful thru week 4. I love winter , but the writing is on the wall. Then you get all the neagtivity on here and it just makes it worse. At least for me..It puts me in an awful mood, and it's just not healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 There's no reason to spend all this time on here..there's nothing positive, you get excited..you think a colder winter pattern might set in..and then the models completely take it away from you. The Euro weeklies are awful thru week 4. I love winter , but the writing is on the wall. Then you get all the neagtivity on here and it just makes it worse. At least for e..It puts me in an awful mood, and it's just not healthy I just wish it felt more like the Christmas season. It feels like fooking Easter. Sometimes these crazy +AO patterns flip after 4-6 weeks, which possibly means it could occur in January. If we can get a decent January trough March...that is ok by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 My original forecast is looking stellar...lol. Warm December, cold January, mild February, cold march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The blackfishing sucked not good gents hope all is well see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The blackfishing sucked not good gents hope all is well see ya. Jeff!!! My daughters bat mitzvah is a week from Saturday. Any room in the poor house? Winter following the blackfish signal? So far, the squirrels are mocking me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Very depressing. If you guys arnt getting snow...then im sure as hell not I kept hearing how the ssts were conducive to a good nao...how is that working out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Very depressing. If you guys arnt getting snow...then im sure as hell not I kept hearing how the ssts were conducive to a good nao...how is that working out? We should all get together and have a cancel winter party...lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I just wish it felt more like the Christmas season. It feels like fooking Easter. Sometimes these crazy +AO patterns flip after 4-6 weeks, which possibly means it could occur in January. If we can get a decent January trough March...that is ok by me. Ninas typically have cold Jans... we shall see. As Jerry said, sometimes a pattern is just tough to break. Seems we're in one that always comes in warmer than modeled at just about all temporal horizons. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Our hope is that everyone was wrong about december and what was suppose to happen in December (cold) happens in january Otherwise well have a winter cancel party and throw Kevin into the harbour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Very depressing. If you guys arnt getting snow...then im sure as hell not I kept hearing how the ssts were conducive to a good nao...how is that working out? Problem is the stratosphere is very cold and the vortex is in a horrible position to get any blocking ridges to form. If that vortex moves south near hudsons bay then we will have much better chances to get a good west based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 There's no reason to spend all this time on here..there's nothing positive, you get excited..you think a colder winter pattern might set in..and then the models completely take it away from you. The Euro weeklies are awful thru week 4. I love winter , but the writing is on the wall. Then you get all the neagtivity on here and it just makes it worse. At least for me..It puts me in an awful mood, and it's just not healthy OR you can just realize we have no control over the weather and enjoy it and your family. Look how much fun you had this weekend. I say that now but if the pattern doesn't change by 1/10ish I'm going to lose it too. I always felt December was a lost cause...but do believe we see a snap back in mid January or at least feel there's a chance towards mid-late January we get into a favorable pattern. This is an unmitigated disaster but has been a pretty well advertised one for a month or more. Weathafella you have to admit we've seen this before particularly in the 80s when the pattern was going to change and never did for like ten years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 OR you can just realize we have no control over the weather and enjoy it and your family. Look how much fun you had this weekend. I say that now but if the pattern doesn't change by 1/10ish I'm going to lose it too. I always felt December was a lost cause...but do believe we see a snap back in mid January or at least feel there's a chance towards mid-late January we get into a favorable pattern. This is an unmitigated disaster but has been a pretty well advertised one for a month or more. Weathafella you have to admit we've seen this before particularly in the 80s when the pattern was going to change and never did for like ten years lol...what a dreadful stretch of years that was. though i'd take 1987 just for the jan blizzard that happened out here. hopefully we aren't headed toward an entire winter of discontent. i won't even pretend to know whether that's the case though - the system is so complex and there's so much we don't know...there are some extraordinarily smart long-term guys who struggle with month-to-month forecasts. i'm comfortable with about 2 to 3 weeks worth of looking ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 lol...what a dreadful stretch of years that was. though i'd take 1987 just for the jan blizzard that happened out here. hopefully we aren't headed toward an entire winter of discontent. i won't even pretend to know whether that's the case though - the system is so complex and there's so much we don't know...there are some extraordinarily smart long-term guys who struggle with month-to-month forecasts. i'm comfortable with about 2 to 3 weeks worth of looking ahead. That's how I feel. I'm not a long range guy, but sometimes there are signals that can help with forecasts that may be for a few months or more. I just wish it would feel like the Holiday season. I'm honestly no where near a "Holiday mood" right now, and that is probably because it feels like Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 lol...what a dreadful stretch of years that was. though i'd take 1987 just for the jan blizzard that happened out here. hopefully we aren't headed toward an entire winter of discontent. i won't even pretend to know whether that's the case though - the system is so complex and there's so much we don't know...there are some extraordinarily smart long-term guys who struggle with month-to-month forecasts. i'm comfortable with about 2 to 3 weeks worth of looking ahead. Phil what year had the back to back big snowstorms down here? Long before my time...was that in the 80s or early 90s? A couple of whoppers in the 15-30" range if I recall. That's how I feel. I'm not a long range guy, but sometimes there are signals that can help with forecasts that may be for a few months or more. I just wish it would feel like the Holiday season. I'm honestly no where near a "Holiday mood" right now, and that is probably because it feels like Easter. It's nuts isn't it? I'm fine with at this point only in the sense that I'm not using any heat. I also feel better about the choice in early November to take this cruise Xmas week while the outlaws stay at the house on the hunch that the weather wasn't going to be skitastic. Where it goes from here who knows. Let's see what this model run at 12z brings us, always a chance for a colder solution but....it's 60. I have no idea whether January will actually be colder beyond the recollection of living here for 40 years and remembering many years where Christmas was a roast to have it get cold in January. Sadly though I never ever remember this type of sustained jungle heat in Nov/Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Phil what year had the back to back big snowstorms down here? Long before my time...was that in the 80s or early 90s? A couple of whoppers in the 15-30" range if I recall. It's nuts isn't it? I'm fine with at this point only in the sense that I'm not using any heat. I also feel better about the choice in early November to take this cruise Xmas week while the outlaws stay at the house on the hunch that the weather wasn't going to be skitastic. Where it goes from here who knows. Let's see what this model run at 12z brings us, always a chance for a colder solution but....it's 60. I have no idea whether January will actually be colder beyond the recollection of living here for 40 years and remembering many years where Christmas was a roast to have it get cold in January. Sadly though I never ever remember this type of sustained jungle heat in Nov/Dec. 87. we had the big one in january and then another one later in the season...think it was the second half of february. both were supposed to suck and then shifted at the last minute. IIRC, the january one was supposed to crush the interior, ended up way east and we got blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 87. we had the big one in january and then another one later in the season...think it was the second half of february. both were supposed to suck and then shifted at the last minute. IIRC, the january one was supposed to crush the interior, ended up way east and we got blasted. Ok thanks. I remember the early 80s for one reason...sitting in class looking at the sun through cirrus wondering when the 6-12" of snow was going to fall that was forecast. Happened so many times..... we can probably merge the "winter" threat thread with the pattern thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 wow what a funeral this morning. rain continues here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 On a positive note it's been a great (inexpensive) heating season so far. With the new wood stove I think I've had the furnace on once in the past 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like yet another torch later next week, might not be long duration but yet again the heat cometh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 87. we had the big one in january and then another one later in the season...think it was the second half of february. both were supposed to suck and then shifted at the last minute. IIRC, the january one was supposed to crush the interior, ended up way east and we got blasted. Wasn't there a storm in Feb '89 that did the same? It could be the one in '87 that you are taking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Extended GFS is dreadful...........cutter, cool down, torch,cutter cool down torch...........etc etc etc wash rinse repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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