donsutherland1 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Messenger, The 0z AO plot is suspect. The AO started at +5.647. That's much higher than the initialization shown on that graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 So did the 00z euro get warm here on Friday-Saturday? It's amazing how cold the gfs is, looks like 20s for highs Friday-Saturday. It's not a torch, but it is warmer than the GFS, with srly winds Friday and then a fropa Friday night with colder weather Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Well the good news is that the torch right in front of us is ending quicker vs the guidance a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Bitter cold over the weekend then rain on Monday on the 12z gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The true Kuchera clown map...sorry metfan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 You always want to take my snow. Lol...I wish it would happen. I get croaked on the GFS, but its a very low probability storm. The pattern is crap so this has to find a perfect medium between the meatgrinder PV to the NW and being too far SE. At least there is an outside chance unlike the monster lakes cutters we've seen recently...but that's about all we can say on this system. It was hard to be any worse off than we were, so I guess even an outside shot is a nice change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Ensembles also congrats western NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 are we at least looking at cold temperatures regardless next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 LOL The Canadian doesn't have anything at all...not even a weak wave offshore. The southern stream energy is just not there..... But the flip side is that for one stunning 36 hour period it brings Cambridge Bay air down over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 LOL The Canadian doesn't have anything at all...not even a weak wave offshore. The southern stream energy is just not there..... It bundles the energy in the initial front.....more similar to the euro. At this point until other guidance corroborates i would toss GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The NAM is more in the GFS camp, but having the two American models may not be saying much..... ..well the NAM 5H situation anyway.... It bundles the energy in the initial front.....more similar to the euro. At this point until other guidance corroborates i would toss GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 im guessing a handful of gfs member are again like the op... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 im guessing a handful of gfs member are again like the op... Yeah the mean is pretty close to the OP...maybe a bit SE and colder which is no surprise...but I don't think this means much of anything at this point. I'd want to see other guidance actually endorsing this perfect medium between a stronger shortwave but also the PV grinding it up enough to keep it southeast for a narrow stripe of winter precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Yeah the mean is pretty close to the OP...maybe a bit SE and colder which is no surprise...but I don't think this means much of anything at this point. I'd want to see other guidance actually endorsing this perfect medium between a stronger shortwave but also the PV grinding it up enough to keep it southeast for a narrow stripe of winter precip... seems it's all or nothing with most of the members the last few runs...i.e. LP up near MBY or something sheared and way SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 It bundles the energy in the initial front.....more similar to the euro. At this point until other guidance corroborates i would toss GFS. You think so? the Euro looks more similar to the GFS @ H5 to me.00z Thu 00z Euro 12z GFS 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The true Kuchera clown map...sorry metfan. Thank god that it wrong....another Dec '96\Oct '11......I would rather sunny and 70*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Lol...I wish it would happen. I get croaked on the GFS, but its a very low probability storm. The pattern is crap so this has to find a perfect medium between the meatgrinder PV to the NW and being too far SE. At least there is an outside chance unlike the monster lakes cutters we've seen recently...but that's about all we can say on this system. It was hard to be any worse off than we were, so I guess even an outside shot is a nice change. So was the Great Pumpkin Storm.lol I'm not expecting much but I do think, somehow, I'll pick up some snow this week. I remain optimistic about things moving forward toward Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Thank god that it wrong....another Dec '96\Oct '11......I would rather sunny and 70*. Both maps work for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 You should have gone to Buffalo with Kevin. He may come close. ..up to 55 there now. Thank god that it wrong....another Dec '96\Oct '11......I would rather sunny and 70*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Bitter cold over the weekend then rain on Monday on the 12z gfs... Seriously, I don't get the rejoicing over one less warm day than originally anticipated....who gives a F**k...I'd rather a string of 70* days, then bitter cold followe dby warm and wet. Horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 You should have gone to Buffalo with Kevin. He may come close. ..up to 55 there now. He thought he was in line for a Feb 2007 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Seriously, I don't get the rejoicing over one less warm day than originally anticipated....who gives a F**k...I'd rather a string of 70* days, then bitter cold followe dby warm and wet. Horrific. To each his own, but if you want strings of 70F days in winter then enjoy your new DC-like winter climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 So was the Great Pumpkin Storm.lol I'm not expecting much but I do think, somehow, I'll pick up some snow this week. I remain optimistic about things moving forward toward Christmas. Mostly because of climo...but the overall setup was not that bad for the Oct storm...we had a little block north of us. This pattern is garbage. Such a narrow window for accumulating snow...so I'm betting against it. We might have some flurries in the air with the cold shots, but that is not exciting to track for most people. Most want realistic accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 To each his own, but if you want strings of 70F days in winter then enjoy your new DC-like winter climo. Do you enjoy cold rain.....I mean, I guess this way we at least have some small chance, but if you alloted me the opportinity to choose between the two forms of sensible weather, then I would go against the 23* sunshine\45*rain, rinse-repeat cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Take a good look at the GFS...that's about as good as it will get and about a 1 in 100 shot. I know this month is going to blow when a cold rain imby represents the pinnacle of this regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'll agree with this much.... Temps between about 35 and 60 are kind of useless.. Not warm enough for comfort and not cold enough for good snow. That's the DC winter...useless wx and 90% of the time no snowcover. 100 year winters like 09-10 excepted. But 70F during Christmas season is depressing. Do you enjoy cold rain.....I mean, I guess this way we at least have some small chance, but if you alloted me the opportinity to choose between the two forms of sensible weather, then I would go against the 23* sunshine\45*rain, rinse-repeat cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Tipper said yesterday we should embrace windy rainstorms as exciting wx ..... and if we don't ...then we need a sociologist. LOL ..anyway off to the Troy, NY Victorian Stroll.. Ehh I guess the 50F won't be too bad, but unchristmaslike. I know this month is going to blow when a cold rain imby represents the pinnacle of this regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'll agree with this much.... Temps between about 35 and 60 are kind of useless.. Not warm enough for comfort and not cold enough for good snow. That's the DC winter...useless wx and 90% of the time no snowcover. 100 year winters like 09-10 excepted. But 70F during Christmas season is depressing. I agree about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Our daughter's bat mitzvah is on 12/17 with activites related during the entire weekend. It's the pinnacle of her intellectual and spiritual development to this point in time and will put me temporarily into the poor house. That's the one time I hope is dry with people traveling to the event from far and wide. Afterwards, I'm going to use some free hotel nights from all of my traveling and go to one of 2 places with the family probably during the week of 12/26. Either NYC or Burlington, VT. It all depends on what the pattern looks like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 2 things this fall, at least in the far interior: - it snows whenever it has a chance - qpf events are consistently robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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