Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Weeklies much better. Near normal temps week 2 at 850. Week 3 has about -0.5C below normal at 850. Week 4 is about +0.5C above normal at 850. Big +AO, but some ridging in the PAC trying to push back the se ridge. Latest weeklies right? I'm sure its almost the exact same thing for me. Is there a strong temp. gradient? Whats the temperature anomaly out West? I dont think the +AO is going to weaken so quickly. Stratosphere does show very slight warming the near future but clearly the pattern doesnt support decent blocking, not yet. I still think we'll see a decent pattern change between Jan 5th-10th, give or take a few days earlier/later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Latest weeklies right? I'm sure its almost the exact same thing for me. Is there a strong temp. gradient? Whats the temperature anomaly out West? I dont think the +AO is going to weaken so quickly. Stratosphere does show very slight warming the near future but clearly the pattern doesnt support decent blocking, not yet. I still think we'll see a decent pattern change between Jan 5th-10th, give or take a few days earlier/later. It's cold out west and into the nrn Plains. The anomalies are aligned sw-ne. It think it means we ride the line with storms. Some would west, some maybe just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Weeklies much better. Near normal temps week 2 at 850. Week 3 has about -0.5C below normal at 850. Week 4 is about +0.5C above normal at 850. Big +AO, but some ridging in the PAC trying to push back the se ridge. Seems to agree with the Euro ensembles day 11-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The cold is starting to over perform. 17/39 today here despite mild 850's and already down to 25. Only one day this week (Thursday) could even approach a torch and nothing compared to past mild wx. We knew that warm BS last week was wrong. What a flip. Almost like when they have Novie cold and then suddenly flipped warm. Weenies..we have some winter wx to start tracking as we move into next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 It's cold out west and into the nrn Plains. The anomalies are aligned sw-ne. It think it means we ride the line with storms. Some would west, some maybe just to our south. Without decent blocking the pattern is fairly progessive so I dont think we'll see strong storms but nice gradient type storms like 07-08 and 08-09 had. Thanks! This is the THIRD december in a row where I've been shafted or done horrible in, how sad. 4th is likely after Dec 31st, haha. Strong Easterlies continue across the Nina regions....we need to get that blocking in soon, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Really nice to see some things starting to move that would lead to a pattern change, chilly day here today Ginx's ll cold for the win. Nice light snow this weekend would sure do wonders to put peeps in the holiday mood! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Seems to agree with the Euro ensembles day 11-15? Yeah not too far from it. I feel like I need to see some more model runs in order to make me feel a little more optimistic. The 00z runs and 12z runs could really bring it back down into the gutter. I think it looks a little better, but I would like to see more evidence in the form of model runs that continue the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I was out there in Hamilton for work (stayed in Oakville) and no snowcover...quite a bit of green grass yet...nasty. It did flurry... Without decent blocking the pattern is fairly progessive so I dont think we'll see strong storms but nice gradient type storms like 07-08 and 08-09 had. Thanks! This is the THIRD december in a row where I've been shafted or done horrible in, how sad. 4th is likely after Dec 31st, haha. Strong Easterlies continue across the Nina regions....we need to get that blocking in soon, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The cold is starting to over perform. 17/39 today here despite mild 850's and already down to 25. Only one day this week (Thursday) could even approach a torch and nothing compared to past mild wx. Rick, its amazing how chilly its felt the last 3 days, today included, hard to believe all 4 sne climo sites were AOA normal today but the +6 at ORH is a heck of a lot better than the +20's, slowly sinking to climo which should bottom out in another 4-5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Yeah I have no idea what climo would be right here in these hills, but chances are if the weeklies verified near or even 1 or 2 C above average, we would get some snow events in there...one would think. I'm more "pro snow" than "pro cold"...don't care if a week averages several degrees above normal if I get a snowstorm. Rick, its amazing how chilly its felt the last 3 days, today included, hard to believe all 4 sne climo sites were AOA normal today but the +6 at ORH is a heck of a lot better than the +20's, slowly sinking to climo which should bottom out in another 4-5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 18z GFS keeps the SE ridge in place for most of the run; next week's storm is a rain event for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 As did 12Z I think.... 18z GFS keeps the SE ridge in place for most of the run; next week's storm is a rain event for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 18z GFS keeps the SE ridge in place for most of the run; next week's storm is a rain event for New England. And it very well might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The cold is starting to over perform. 17/39 today here despite mild 850's and already down to 25. Only one day this week (Thursday) could even approach a torch and nothing compared to past mild wx. Just no mixing with HP overhead...that's december for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 And it very well might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Well....even the EC ensembles indicate that chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Things are looking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Things are looking up. I think we will start to see some changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I think we will start to see some changes Yep. Some already showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The basic change in sensible wx started 12/10....interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The basic change in sensible wx started 12/10....interesting. And it should be complete by 12/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The basic change in sensible wx started 12/10....interesting. Probably a good thing we get a little relaxation of the AO and a SE movement of the PV along with semblance of a PNA evolving. All the angst could be relieved with a Christmas week snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Just busted out a 10-pager in a few hours. It's nice to be a senior and not care anymore. But back on topic, some nice trends on guidance today. 12z EURO looked decent. At least we have a couple threats out there. Whether they track ideally (thread the needle) or go OTS or west remain to be seen. At least we got something to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The pattern still overall remains junk, but basic climo along with a slight relaxation in the PAC jet with more ridging out there might give us a couple shots between now and Christmas. So far its more of a pattern getting better only because it really couldn't get much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 It is certainly better then remaining status quo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The pattern still overall remains junk, but basic climo along with a slight relaxation in the PAC jet with more ridging out there might give us a couple shots between now and Christmas. So far its more of a pattern getting better only because it really couldn't get much worse. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Things are looking up. uh huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The basic change in sensible wx started 12/10....interesting. uh huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Bagginess in isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The pattern still overall remains junk, but basic climo along with a slight relaxation in the PAC jet with more ridging out there might give us a couple shots between now and Christmas. Yup So far its more of a pattern getting better only because it really couldn't get much worse. Go outside turn around three times and spit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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