Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 You both need to take some time off from the board. Euro doesn't look terrible and I think the GFS doesn't either so long as you put the GFS anti-su** goggles on. It's 47 today not 67, huge improvement although still above normal. At least we're in the right season now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 You both need to take some time off from the board. Euro doesn't look terrible and I think the GFS doesn't either so long as you put the GFS anti-su** goggles on. It's 47 today not 67, huge improvement although still above normal. At least we're in the right season now. Late November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I like the ridging on the EC ensembles out by NW Canada near d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 EC ensembles def do imply a shot at something for us in the Dec 20-25 time range. We'll just have to see if there's enough cold air available. The cruddy Atlantic and the lack of solid EPO ridging is killing the ability for good arctic air to maintain itself in the CONUS...every time we get an EPO ridge, its kind of skinny and doesn't really blast up into the Arctic ocean as far as you'd normally like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 EC ensembles def do imply a shot at something for us in the Dec 20-25 time range. We'll just have to see if there's enough cold air available. The cruddy Atlantic and the lack of solid EPO ridging is killing the ability for good arctic air to maintain itself in the CONUS...every time we get an EPO ridge, its kind of skinny and doesn't really blast up into the Arctic ocean as far as you'd normally like. It's sad, but it's the best I've seen it since late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Jerry yep but it beats late September like we had for the last 15 days. We're going to have at least some shots. Whether they fade inside of 5 days as misses or warm who knows, but the boring period ends in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The 11-15 day is not perfect, but the crazy PAC flow is lifted and relaxed later in the runs. The lower heights are now closer to the Poles and a little more meridional flow exists into Canada. There are even signs of weak + height anomalies bridging over the NPole into Russia, from AK. However, heights are still a little high in the east so we may run the risk of warmer solutions. But, with the PAC a little better..you run the risk of a better gradient pattern. Caveat......we need to see this continue over the next 2-3 days. It may go to crap on the 00z or 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The GEFS mass fields really like the 17th-20th more than the 23... interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Weeklies later will be interesting to see if they hold the disaster of last week with presumably an init from today but a forecast for the same time period? Why do I periodically have to edit the font to avoid sending everyone to my colleagues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Weeklies later will be interesting to see if they hold the disaster of last week with presumably an init from today but a forecast for the same time period? Why do I periodically have to edit the font to avoid sending everyone to my colleagues? What's your browser Jerry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Well now hold it... heh. I just got done reviewing the spread and have concluded that the 16th -20trh of the month is not exaclty devoid of opportunity. I then read CISCO's take on things and he mentioned today that the 12z GGEM split from continuity regarding its self an other guidance types; of course I had to look - ... The model settles into the 17th-20th for potential high latitude miller B off a robust clipper. A bit of a +PNAP pattern insert as well... This may be a break from continuity. Does break in continuity have to mean break in reality? So long as the GEFS show a 3-4 day +PNA in tandem with neutralized +NAO, I wouldn't put the time period away on this. Granted the probability is low, it is not the 0 order it was as of late just the same. If there were 0 teleconnector support I probably wouldn't bother with this post. Heck, even the heavily progression biased "GONAPS" model has some kind of amplitude along NE coast at D7 - although this model really is so horrible that may be coincidence there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 What's your browser Jerry? IE version 7 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Well now hold it... heh. I just got done reviewing the spread and have concluded that the 16th -20trh of the month is not exaclty devoid of opportunity. I then read CISCO's take on things and he mentioned today that the 12z GGEM split from continuity regarding its self an other guidance types; of course I had to look - ... The model settles into the 17th-20th for potential high latitude miller B off a robust clipper. A bit of a +PNAP pattern insert as well... This may be a break from continuity. Does break in continuity have to mean break in reality? So long as the GEFS show a 3-4 day +PNA in tandem with neutralized +NAO, I wouldn't put the time period away on this. Granted the probability is low, it is not the 0 order it was as of late just the same. If there were 0 teleconnector support I probably wouldn't bother with this post. Heck, even the heavily progression biased "GONAPS" model has some kind of amplitude along NE coast at D7 - although this model really is so horrible that may be coincidence there. Do you think its closer to the 16 or the 20th? I know its the NAM at 84 hours, but hour 84 kind of looks interesting to me with some precip hanging back with a s/w in the southeast and a ton of energy diving from Ontario, maybe something to watch and that would fall into tips 16-20 range... Didn't someone say in this pattern, storms will kind of sneak up on us, like that last storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Well now hold it... heh. I just got done reviewing the spread and have concluded that the 16th -20trh of the month is not exaclty devoid of opportunity. I then read CISCO's take on things and he mentioned today that the 12z GGEM split from continuity regarding its self an other guidance types; of course I had to look - ... The model settles into the 17th-20th for potential high latitude miller B off a robust clipper. A bit of a +PNAP pattern insert as well... This may be a break from continuity. Does break in continuity have to mean break in reality? So long as the GEFS show a 3-4 day +PNA in tandem with neutralized +NAO, I wouldn't put the time period away on this. Granted the probability is low, it is not the 0 order it was as of late just the same. If there were 0 teleconnector support I probably wouldn't bother with this post. Heck, even the heavily progression biased "GONAPS" model has some kind of amplitude along NE coast at D7 - although this model really is so horrible that may be coincidence there. seems the GGEM has had a pretty substantial cold bias going recently. it feels like it has wanted to keep us in the freezer for weeks now. that said, i approve of that run. IE version 7 here. IE any version sucks, jerry. go with Firefox or better yet, Chrome. faster, more stable, secure...and actually designed to play by internet rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 seems the GGEM has had a pretty substantial cold bias going recently. it feels like it has wanted to keep us in the freezer for weeks now. that said, i approve of that run. IE any version sucks, jerry. go with Firefox or better yet, Chrome. faster, more stable, secure...and actually designed to play by internet rules. Chrome is great. IE can be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The one thing that sucks, is that without no persistent blocking, we run the risk of having more transient cold shots. The PAC also will improve, but still we don't have significant blocking in the GOA or Aleutians at this time. So while it may not be a blow torch, I'm not sure if the cold shots will have much staying power. If that PAC got better, then things could be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Chrome >> every other browser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Jerry gets 1.000001" at Logan on Dec 24 La lalala lock it up! Maybe the persistant ridge can work in our favor a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 seems the GGEM has had a pretty substantial cold bias going recently. it feels like it has wanted to keep us in the freezer for weeks now. that said, i approve of that run. IE any version sucks, jerry. go with Firefox or better yet, Chrome. faster, more stable, secure...and actually designed to play by internet rules. Yeah I agree but I can't mess with things here so I'll live with it. Incidentally, I dropped Firefox because it started having trouble on my old desktop. In the end, I'm using Safari at home but haven't tried Chrome...will do that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Chrome >> every other browser Any risks? Tempted to switch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The one thing that sucks, is that without no persistent blocking, we run the risk of having more transient cold shots. The PAC also will improve, but still we don't have significant blocking in the GOA or Aleutians at this time. So while it may not be a blow torch, I'm not sure if the cold shots will have much staying power. If that PAC got better, then things could be different. We're a 3 month EPO block to the pole away from 1993-94 brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Do you think its closer to the 16 or the 20th? I know its the NAM at 84 hours, but hour 84 kind of looks interesting to me with some precip hanging back with a s/w in the southeast and a ton of energy diving from Ontario, maybe something to watch and that would fall into tips 16-20 range... Didn't someone say in this pattern, storms will kind of sneak up on us, like that last storm.. I don't think anything is closer to anything... I'm saying the teleconnectors ...however subtle, do hint that between the 16th and 20th there could be something going on - what that is exactly I don't have the foggiest based on an early signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Weeklies much better. Near normal temps week 2 at 850. Week 3 has about -0.5C below normal at 850. Week 4 is about +0.5C above normal at 850. Big +AO, but some ridging in the PAC trying to push back the se ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I don't think anything is closer to anything... I'm saying the teleconnectors ...however subtle, do hint that between the 16th and 20th there could be something going on - what that is exactly I don't have the foggiest based on an early signal. What's more noticeable on the models runs is the undeniable NW trend with each storm 3 days out... I mean look at the shift NW on this lakes cutter over the past couple days. The storm is almost a Minnesota land o 10,000 lakes cutter now... if we want a storm to hit, we better hope models have it like 500 miles off the coast of we want any wintry precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Weeklies much better. Near normal temps week 2 at 850. Week 3 has about -0.5C below normal at 850. Week 4 is about +0.5C above normal at 850. Big +AO, but some ridging in the PAC trying to push back the se ridge. We knew that warm BS last week was wrong. What a flip. Almost like when they have Novie cold and then suddenly flipped warm. Weenies..we have some winter wx to start tracking as we move into next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Weeklies much better. Near normal temps week 2 at 850. Week 3 has about -0.5C below normal at 850. Week 4 is about +0.5C above normal at 850. Big +AO, but some ridging in the PAC trying to push back the se ridge. that's a first in about 3 months..near normal temps on the weeklies.ummm..something might be up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 We knew that warm BS last week was wrong. What a flip. Almost like when they have Novie cold and then suddenly flipped warm. Weenies..we have some winter wx to start tracking as we move into next week He's backkkkkkk Rev in the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 We knew that warm BS last week was wrong. What a flip. Almost like when they have Novie cold and then suddenly flipped warm. Weenies..we have some winter wx to start tracking as we move into next week It's not a flip, just less in the way of warmth. It's not a great pattern, but better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 We knew that warm BS last week was wrong. What a flip. Almost like when they have Novie cold and then suddenly flipped warm. Weenies..we have some winter wx to start tracking as we move into next week Thank God, I would not rule anything out this weekend either, canadian, crazy uncle and some euro control runs hinting at some light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Any risks? Tempted to switch... I don't believe so. It's a very simple and clean looking browser, which is just one of a number of things I like about it. A lot of the others have too much going on around the website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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