Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Well you better deal with it, because December is probably gone except for a miracle. Think Feb and Mar will be decent. Not that is should matter, but I feel a little better about the next 7-14 days than I have in a long time. At least we may have a shot or two at some snow. Too many conflicting signals with these statements. I'm throwing the yellow caution flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Every day it seems more and more people should consider taking some time away from the board, Its not healthy in this hostile pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Too many conflicting signals with these statements. I'm throwing the yellow caution flag What I mean is that it will take a miracle for a below normal temp and above normal snowy regime to complete the second half of December But, at least some of the long range isn't a total disaster and offers a couple of chances. That's all you can say. I think it looks better than what we've endured...and yes I realize that isn't saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Oh come on, Steve...this pattern sucks dead rats. Yea, lets take solace in the fact that we could not sustain a +7 month. It is what is, seen much much worse. Will not take much to switch us on the good side. You can either be hopeful or pessimistic. No one no computer can say how long it lasts. Fact one is it is much different today than last week. Seasonality is setting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The GGEM takes a strong shortwave over the top of the PAC ridge and slams it into New England, lol. Have to wonder if there is even room for this much amplification in this pattern. http://www.meteo.psu...MC_12z/f162.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Every day it seems more and more people should consider taking some time away from the board, Its not healthy in this hostile pattern Blizz is serious when he says that. I like the meltdowns and melting down kind of cathartic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The GGEM takes a strong shortwave over the top of the PAC ridge and slams it into New England, lol. Have to wonder if there is even room for this much amplification in this pattern. http://www.meteo.psu...MC_12z/f162.gif The Scooter Sneaky Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Blizz is serious when he says that. I like the meltdowns and melting down kind of cathartic . Steve, It is what it is, None of us are going to change it, I think just having some chances going forward is all we can look to, I enjoy the comedy as well thats why i threw it out there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The GGEM takes a strong shortwave over the top of the PAC ridge and slams it into New England, lol. Have to wonder if there is even room for this much amplification in this pattern. http://www.meteo.psu...MC_12z/f162.gif There's not... but with the right s/w hopefully we can thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Like I was telling you guys the other nite...I think January is gonna be a good wintry month..but I think Feb and esp March are bad You realize that by spelling night as "nite" you're only saving one letter and getting dumber every time you do it #ItNeedsToSnowSoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 There's not... but with the right s/w hopefully we can thread the needle. Am I a bad person if I secretly wish we get a massive cutter with Dews in the 50 s Christmas week up to the Canadian border? There is always beer...........j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 A beautiful description of our current dead ratter. Let's hope something shakes it up. But John....vis a vis Nina...it is not strong.....why would the influence seem outsized? Are we experiencing a lag of a year from last year's strong Nina? thx Jerry - yeah, pretty much.. I am a big fan of a Newtonian physical concept in this; namely, 'an object will remain in motion unless acted upon by another object'. that simple precept more than just seems to apply to the atmosphere in my experience. the way it works is simple: an object (the atmosphere), will remain in its character of motion until acted upon by another force sufficiently large enough to change that character. the last known force sufficiently large was last years Nina regime - although, admittedly i have been remiss to check the most recent numbers; i figure if anything was changing that warranted a check some upstart poster would let us know... I dunno but what we need is some kind of chaotic emergent process in the system ...whether it be some enormous Kelvin wave, or an AO cold jolt into the middle latitudes.... whatever... but recently there seems to be an absence of necessary perturbations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 It's tough being back in about 1989-91 again wx-wise. I guess we knew history had to repeat eventually and there would be pay back for all the cold and snow. Back then I had no internet so fewer teases and less temptation to waste a lot of time on futile model runs. If I wasn't going skiing 12/26-12/30 I wouldn't be as frustrated. I guess one of the things is that we're just in a boring pattern. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I'll probably wait until the EC ensembles come out, but we may have a couple of shots before Christmas. They could be OTS or rain, but even though this is not the greatest looking pattern...it does offer some hope as we may have more poleward flow and nrn stream jet dipping into the US, instead of hanging out well north. Hopefully the EC ensembles can continue this at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 "Ding Dong the witch is dead. The witch is dead. The witch is dead. Ding Dong the wickedest witch is deeeeead" http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 "Ding Dong the witch is dead. The witch is dead. The witch is dead. Ding Dong the wickedest witch is deeeeead" http://cawcr.gov.au/...Last90days.html Hopefully it doesn't loop around back to 4 like some models show. I guess if that happens, it's curtains for 2-4 weeks. At least in the COD it can't hurt us...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The euro wants something in the 18-21 timeframe...Might be more the latter...but models are going to have a tough time with the sw cutoff. With that sw cutoff...might have to sacrifice one storm in order to get colder air in here for the other. I'm still hoping that period works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The euro wants something in the 18-21 timeframe...Might be more the latter...but models are going to have a tough time with the sw cutoff. With that sw cutoff...might have to sacrifice one storm in order to get colder air in here for the other. I'm still hoping that period works out. Either that..or the period later on that HM mentioned. It's going to be tough to figure out what's what with the sw cutoff spewing out disturbances and fooking up timing, but maybe a chance or two before Christmas? I don't care when it is...just hope something comes about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Either that..or the period later on that HM mentioned. It's going to be tough to figure out what's what with the sw cutoff spewing out disturbances and fooking up timing, but maybe a chance or two before Christmas? I don't care when it is...just hope something comes about. Yeah, ECMWF says I probably should have left the original 12/20-23 period alone for a possible snow event. I really don't care when the thing is going to occur, as long as it comes somewhere around the 22nd. Otherwise, I need to reconfigure my "kook" file (Adam will laugh at that) for long range snow prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The euro wants something in the 18-21 timeframe...Might be more the latter...but models are going to have a tough time with the sw cutoff. With that sw cutoff...might have to sacrifice one storm in order to get colder air in here for the other. I'm still hoping that period works out. GFS and Euro are definitely handling it a little differently but the signal is there for some storm type in that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Yeah, ECMWF says I probably should have left the original 12/20-23 period alone for a possible snow event. I really don't care when the thing is going to occur, as long as it comes somewhere around the 22nd. Otherwise, I need to reconfigure my "kook" file (Adam will laugh at that) for long range snow prediction. Well at least something might be on the table, that's all that matters. Thanks for chiming in with all this. You did like that time for a while, hopefully it pans out with something other than Non-Crystalline Precipitation...as the ski areas would say...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Well if nothing else, These runs have had a colder look to them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The euro wants something in the 18-21 timeframe...Might be more the latter...but models are going to have a tough time with the sw cutoff. With that sw cutoff...might have to sacrifice one storm in order to get colder air in here for the other. I'm still hoping that period works out. Aside of the recent fruitcake GFS runs there's been strong hints in those timeframes I outlined a few days ago...around the 20th and again XMas of at least some potential. This is the Dallas Cowboys pattern change so we have to work with what we've got for now. If we get lucky and the s/w bounces the right way we may get a few threats in a short period...if the Tony Romo NPac ridge chokes we could end up toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Decent Euro run. Maybe something actually did change 12/10.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 If you look at the euro on Allan's site when it comes out, you can see that it's still a tricky situation.We have a transient type -EPO ridge across the GOA that will move into NW Canada. This in turn will try to help dump cold into the US, but it is all about timing. In this run, we have a front that slips through and thanks to another -EPO ridge..the cold moves in prior to the moisture moving up from the sw...but you can imagine how complicated things can be in this pattern. SW cutoffs can be a huge pain in the but. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Most optimism we've had on here since Halloween. I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Decent Euro run. Maybe something actually did change 12/10.... at the very least the AO from the hell is dying...the AO is getting close to neutral and higher height anomalies and 850 T anomalies are showing up over the Pole...especially on the eastern side. The other indices aren't being as cooperative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Euro definitely doesn't look awful. The split flow pattern is going to have a tough time delivering anything big without upstream blocking... but I do like a more neutral EPO and PNA ridging that is around some of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Euro definitely doesn't look awful. The split flow pattern is going to have a tough time delivering anything big without upstream blocking... but I do like a more neutral EPO and PNA ridging that is around some of the time. LOL. don't get too optimistic now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 LOL. don't get too optimistic now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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