powderfreak Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Day 9 threat appears to be real LOL... I'm sorry that sort of comment gets some people 5/day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 LOL... I'm sorry that sort of comment gets some people 5/day. yeah, hvy hvy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 You are turning the corner Rev.... I am hoping that it won't be only Pete, Steve and I (edit: I should've added Blizz24) who will have to lead this winter. We are losing the Rebbe so we need the Rev. This is why you are a CoT member in good standing. Your optimism does not find its genesis in blind faith but rather it has its roots in a reasoned approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Funny how the GEFS are now the worst looking members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 00z EC is more optimistic about some front end snow for parts of NNE Thu than the GFS and the d9-10 threat is there. 00z EC ens have the threats too and look a little better d11-15 with some ridging into the Aleutians although the PV is still camping out by Thule. 00z Canadian looks a bit better for some wintery precip on the front end, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I agree with lc /jb and steve on big time weather pattern change coming in the next two weeks . Models wont see it for while but will likely have white christmas for sne and the Northeast area. When the change does come this month it will come hard with snow after snow . I still say above normal snowfall for Southern New England area . Whatever you are on I want some!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Nam gives some ice to the interior by Thursday morning. Especially GC and ORH and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Nam gives some ice to the interior by Thursday morning. Especially GC and ORH and points north. I thinks last nights 0z Euro had that signal as well, Models seem like they try to erode the colder air out quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Euro ensembles aren't a disaster... but they're still pretty bad. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 This is why you are a CoT member in good standing. Your optimism does not find its genesis in blind faith but rather it has its roots in a reasoned approach. You and I know that Ullr is just preparing us. He came to me last night in a vision and said "Lo to thee I have not given thee wall to wall winter come 5 years now. Soon I warm to the north and the beast descendeth, and that beast stays many days and months. Gather your nuts now squirrels...." That made me feel better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 You and I know that Ullr is just preparing us. He came to me last night in a vision and said "Lo to thee I have not given thee wall to wall winter come 5 years now. Soon I warm to the north and the beast descendeth, and that beast stays many days and months. Gather your nuts now squirrels...." Dude!! That's amazing!! I had the same vision! White Christmas!! That made me feel better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Nam gives some ice to the interior by Thursday morning. Especially GC and ORH and points north. Some folks were mentioning that the other day, but I thought it was NNE at the time... South is better for me, and is it showing any snow in NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Hopefully the north kingdom can get a little snow and ice to start, and hopefully we can thread the needle before xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Some folks were mentioning that the other day, but I thought it was NNE at the time... South is better for me, and is it showing any snow in NNE? No not really..looks like mostly mix zr/ip going to zr and then rain. I think any chance of ice will be mostlynrn ORH county out into GC. I guess I could see maybe Will getting a little bit too. Any ice will probably be very brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Ok a new day.... GFS looks cold end of week into the weekend. And lo and behold it has a system missing us way south. Flag given the bias. Bat Mitzvah snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Also looks like a potential bit time torch around 12/22-25 or so. End of the pattern change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Also looks like a potential bit time torch around 12/22-25 or so. End of the pattern change.... this is for you Jerry 51 years ago today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Ok a new day.... GFS looks cold end of week into the weekend. And lo and behold it has a system missing us way south. Flag given the bias. Bat Mitzvah snow? Yeah another threading the needle possible, but....probably should keep an eye on it..especially if the euro tries to get a little more organized this run. GFS has been known to keep that stuff flat, but we are getting a little closer, so models will have to start showing the potential soon..if there is any. Maybe Phil has best shot of snow with potential inv trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 this is for you Jerry 41 years ago today Fabulous!!! How well I remember that storm! Except it's 51 years ......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Fabulous!!! How well I remember that storm! Except it's 51 years ......lol lol..my bad I changed it..I was 2 years old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Followed by cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Followed by cutter? Looks like it gets squeezed out south on NE, Hard to tell one its truncated, Still looks like a signal for something around the 21st... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 GFS with a miracle. Can it pull this off 2 years in a row while Dr. No gets a rare beating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 GFS really wants to hang the cold into NE. I'll take it but will have to take the time to look at the global pattern to see if it's a pipe dream or possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Looks like it gets squeezed out south on NE, Hard to tell one its truncated, Still looks like a signal for something around the 21st... Euro ensembles kind of hint at that scenario too. A warm up with a fropa, followed by some low developing along the cold front as it moves through New England. Too far out to get worked up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 We just appear to have landed the Hemisphere into a very stable R-wave configuration that simply isn't promoting the types of sensible weather the collective desire rejoices. And by stable, that basically boils down to the La Nina ENSO's influence on the pattern, combined with a hiatus of the AO from any semblance of a negative phase state. There is a lot of lofty talk and intellectualize going on about all this (solar, QPO, GWO phasing...etc, etc...) At the end of the day, one of those two above factors needs to alter or there really is nothing to provide impetus for changing sensible weather types. It is becoming cliche' to say "that doesn't mean something interesting can't happen", but if it offers any appeasing of the ennui et al, it has to unfortunately be the banner of our current weather times. Obviously, the Nina factorization is out of reach ... even if that changed in shorter order the atmosphere wouldn't respond. As we all know there is 1/4 year time dependency (approximately) for ENSO triggers in the atmosphere. Brief OT: I have often thought it would be an interesting study to see if the seasonal timing of ENSO changes are correlate-able, too. It seems intuitive to me that a warm or cool event onset in the summer would be less effective on the N. Hemisphere's atmosphere than an event of similar amplitude taking place in the winter. The reason I suspect this is because the gradients in the summer are so weak that the atmosphere doesn't "sense" the changes taking place. However, in the winter-time, the gradients are intense to begin with, so altering the thermal source/sink might allow more immediate atmospheric responses. It is important to remember that gradient drives everything; without it there is nothing. That said, this Nina is getting old. It's been going on for a long time now - a bit anomalously long compared to the typical residence of either warm of cool phases. I don't know about you guys but I think I'm ready for this thing to go away ha ha. Anyway, your best hope is have the AO fall. Last year's -AO arrival during the latter half of December was really not keyed into any observable variance in the stratosphere, yet it was what it was. I recall lots of discussion around Met circuits where in general folks were nonplussed to offer an explanation. Nonetheless, a -2 SD AO (or whatever it was) only then slowly alleviated through January. Now ...not all -AOs deliver cold on this side of the Hemisphere (there's that migraine too!); barring such a delicious example of dark irony and assuming at least menial cold is delivered fairly distributed to our side of the Globe (sarcasm) ... it certainly worked to the local winter weather enthusiasts benefit last season. The reason I speak in this prose is to enlighten us all to the notion that the AO can fall, as last season proved, doing so without a lot of typical leading indicators. It just seems too hard to imagine that occurring as weeks tick by and it persistently refuses to do so, I know ... Right now it is hard to get a beed on what the AO is really doing. CPC is the source I typically have used in the past, but lately they demonstrated trouble initializing the domain a few times, and then that subsequently screwed with the prognosticated mean. Right now they are indicated about +1 SD field, a fall of some 3 SD total across the last 10 days. Normally I would offer that to be a big signal for changing things around, in no small part assisted by a huge cryosphere residing up underneath. But looking at initializations of individual ensemble members makes me think their current assessment is again off - I don't think the AO is as low as +1 SD in other words (I could be wrong, sure). So I don't feel inclined to offer that... The u-mean wind in the stratosphere is still not favoring a negative AO. Nor does the temperature curve. Last year's -AO was an interesting anomaly relative to these typical correlations, because high altitude arctic domain was similar to what has transpired over the last couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 The ensembles try and develop a low pretty far ofshore at hr 144, but probably could give the cape a graze. It's slightly better than the op anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Boing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Euro ensembles kind of hint at that scenario too. A warm up with a fropa, followed by some low developing along the cold front as it moves through New England. Too far out to get worked up right now. Plus its the GFS in the long range, FWIW, Just something to monitor, If it is legit, We should start to see the Euro op pick it up as its right around hr 240 but that does not say much either, I am more interested in seeing more sustained colder air from run to run continuing to show up, The snow chances should follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 We just appear to have landed the Hemisphere into a very stable R-wave configuration that simply isn't promoting the types of sensible weather the collective desire rejoices. And by stable, that basically boils down to the La Nina ENSO's influence on the pattern, combined with a hiatus of the AO from any semblance of a negative phase state. There is a lot of lofty talk and intellectualize going on about all this (solar, QPO, GWO phasing...etc, etc...) At the end of the day, one of those two above factors needs to alter or there really is nothing to provide impetus for changing sensible weather types. It is becoming cliche' to say "that doesn't mean something interesting can't happen", but if it offers any appeasing of the ennui et al, it has to unfortunately be the banner of our current weather times. Obviously, the Nina factorization is out of reach ... even if that changed in shorter order the atmosphere wouldn't respond. As we all know there is 1/4 year time dependency (approximately) for ENSO triggers in the atmosphere. Brief OT: I have often thought it would be an interesting study to see if the seasonal timing of ENSO changes are correlate-able, too. It seems intuitive to me that a warm or cool event onset in the summer would be less effective on the N. Hemisphere's atmosphere than an event of similar amplitude taking place in the winter. The reason I suspect this is because the gradients in the summer are so weak that the atmosphere doesn't "sense" the changes taking place. However, in the winter-time, the gradients are intense to begin with, so altering the thermal source/sink might allow more immediate atmospheric responses. It is important to remember that gradient drives everything; without it there is nothing. That said, this Nina is getting old. It's been going on for a long time now - a bit anomalously long compared to the typical residence of either warm of cool phases. I don't know about you guys but I think I'm ready for this thing to go away ha ha. Anyway, your best hope is have the AO fall. Last year's -AO arrival during the latter half of December was really not keyed into any observable variance in the stratosphere, yet it was what it was. I recall lots of discussion around Met circuits where in general folks were nonplussed to offer an explanation. Nonetheless, a -2 SD AO (or whatever it was) only then slowly alleviated through January. Now ...not all -AOs deliver cold on this side of the Hemisphere (there's that migraine too!); barring such a delicious example of dark irony and assuming at least menial cold is delivered fairly distributed to our side of the Globe (sarcasm) ... it certainly worked to the local winter weather enthusiasts benefit last season. The reason I speak in this prose is to enlighten us all to the notion that the AO can fall, as last season proved, doing so without a lot of typical leading indicators. It just seems too hard to imagine that occurring as weeks tick by and it persistently refuses to do so, I know ... Right now it is hard to get a beed on what the AO is really doing. CPC is the source I typically have used in the past, but lately they demonstrated trouble initializing the domain a few times, and then that subsequently screwed with the prognosticated mean. Right now they are indicated about +1 SD field, a fall of some 3 SD total across the last 10 days. Normally I would offer that to be a big signal for changing things around, in no small part assisted by a huge cryosphere residing up underneath. But looking at initializations of individual ensemble members makes me think their current assessment is again off - I don't think the AO is as low as +1 SD in other words (I could be wrong, sure). So I don't feel inclined to offer that... The u-mean wind in the stratosphere is still not favoring a negative AO. Nor does the temperature curve. Last year's -AO was an interesting anomaly relative to these typical correlations, because high altitude arctic domain was similar to what has transpired over the last couple of months. A beautiful description of our current dead ratter. Let's hope something shakes it up. But John....vis a vis Nina...it is not strong.....why would the influence seem outsized? Are we experiencing a lag of a year from last year's strong Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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