dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Wow what an unmitigated catastrophe on the GFS. Likely overzealous with next weekend's cold and than a horrifying lakes cutter. Absolute epic fail through day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Wow what an unmitigated catastrophe on the GFS. Likely overzealous with next weekend's cold and than a horrifying lakes cutter. Absolute epic fail through day 8. 966LP south of AK too. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 966LP south of AK too. Looks good. The CONUS synoptics are hideous enough but the hemispheric pattern is just as bad as it gets heading into Christmas. You think the models can't look any worse and then they spit this stuff out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 966LP south of AK too. Looks good. It's way different then last run. GFS loves to flip flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Wow what an unmitigated catastrophe on the GFS. Likely overzealous with next weekend's cold and than a horrifying lakes cutter. Absolute epic fail through day 8. What are you talking about??? I love the look of the 00z GFS through hr 180.... For me in San Diego..... Sorry guys... 2011-2012 "the year without a winter, but a historic fall snowstorm..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Last 3 runs, 3 different solutions.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Never a good think having a bermuda high this time of year. It just could not get any worse, transient cool followed by hell.............wow is that an ugly run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 at hour 240 the country is void of any cold air...........I dont think I have ever seen the conus look that warm on a gfs post truncation map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 At least we aren't alone suffering. The whole country torches for the majority of 00z. M.O.T.S. tonight. It's just hard to be positive about a change for the better right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 at hour 240 the country is void of any cold air...........I dont think I have ever seen the conus look that warm on a gfs post truncation map. Horrible run. At least the ensembles have been colder and different than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 966LP south of AK too. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 All you can do is laugh. Night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I would not buy into any solution that the GFS is showing as it has been so extreme from run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I would not buy into any solution that the GFS is showing as it has been so extreme from run to run Forget the Global Failure System, this pattern is atrocious right now. Hopefully a miracle can happen before any possible pattern change in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Forget the Global Failure System, this pattern is atrocious right now. Hopefully a miracle can happen before any possible pattern change in Jan. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Least important Euro run of our lives rolling out right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Not terribly mild..maybe even close to normal if you averaged out the whole 180 hours I saw on weather underground. But as usual this year ...no ability to mix cold air with moisture. Maybe there is a fantasy storm beyond h180... LOL Least important Euro run of our lives rolling out right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Wow what an unmitigated catastrophe on the GFS. Likely overzealous with next weekend's cold and than a horrifying lakes cutter. Absolute epic fail through day 8. Wouldn't a lakes cutter be a good thing and a sign that the pattern is shifting? I would think a good wound up cutter would help in the process of creating blocking to our north. Would it allow cold air to surge in behind and get us moving in the right direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Wouldn't a lakes cutter be a good thing and a sign that the pattern is shifting? I would think a good wound up cutter would help in the process of creating blocking to our north. Would it allow cold air to surge in behind and get us moving in the right direction? You're going to live long....you are a great optimist. I think someone has alluded to the fct that our cutters can't cut north enough this year to help the NAO. The pattern globally seems locked in but I'm sure we'll get a few chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 00z EC is more optimistic about some front end snow for parts of NNE Thu than the GFS and the d9-10 threat is there. 00z EC ens have the threats too and look a little better d11-15 with some ridging into the Aleutians although the PV is still camping out by Thule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 00z EC is more optimistic about some front end snow for parts of NNE Thu than the GFS and the d9-10 is there. 00z EC ens have the threats too and look a little better d11-15 with some ridging into the Aleutians although the PV is still camping out by Thule. Thank you for offering a ray of light into this gloomy thread. The combination of Debbie Downer and Messenger of the apocalypse has been stifling. The negative spin has been as bad as the overly optimistic weenie posts we sometimes get. I'll take the 00z EC and hope it continues to evolve in a positive way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Brian/CPU controls the weather Snow soon Pete Snow soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 You're going to live long....you are a great optimist. I think someone has alluded to the fct that our cutters can't cut north enough this year to help the NAO. The pattern globally seems locked in but I'm sure we'll get a few chances. My main points and the reason for my unfettered optimism: - I think there is emerging evidence that the pattern is shifting, things that might not show up strongly on the models yet. I think Isotherm, HM, LC have talked about this. - This is not a boring pattern. We have a pattern of high qpf events that continues. I bet Thursday overperforms vs. the <.25 that GYX is now calling for. We have an energized subtropical jet which is almost always good for NE. These highly anomolous storms moving into the UK suggest a rubber band that snaps. - As winter progresses the westerlies sink, lots of snow in Canada creates cold, a gradient sets up and many in NE benefit...maybe not you, but certainly up here. So if the current pattern continues I think I still do pretty well. If it changes, I think I do well. - It is early and better to have this sort of pattern early rather than mid or late. - We live in New England. - I've already had one god-awful winter 2009-2010 recently. - We are in a decadal -NAO pattern. - I believe in the Rebbe, even when he doubts himself. I say all of this will a strong knocking on a wood surface and utterances of "Kina Hora" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I continue to be amazed at the people that #1 look at the GFS and #2..actually think it's right..some of the people that use and look at that POS are knowledgeabe folks too. Just very odd. Euro looks good and actually has a snow event for us Day 9. BTW did anyone notice this week isn;t turning out mild? low 40's today/tomorrow 30's Wed and one day in the pper 40's on Thursday and then the cold front comes thru Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 00z EC is more optimistic about some front end snow for parts of NNE Thu than the GFS and the d9-10 threat is there. 00z EC ens have the threats too and look a little better d11-15 with some ridging into the Aleutians although the PV is still camping out by Thule. Hasn't the pattern been that the overnight Euro sucks and the 12Z is optimistic? Has that pattern change? 12z Euro BROOL (Biggest Run Of Our LIves)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I continue to be amazed at the people that #1 look at the GFS and #2..actually think it's right..some of the people that use and look at that POS are knowledgeabe folks too. Just very odd. Euro looks good and actually has a snow event for us Day 9. BTW did anyone notice this week isn;t turning out mild? low 40's today/tomorrow 30's Wed and one day in the pper 40's on Thursday and then the cold front comes thru Friday. You are turning the corner Rev.... I am hoping that it won't be only Pete, Steve and I (edit: I should've added Blizz24) who will have to lead this winter. We are losing the Rebbe so we need the Rev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I do like the ridging showing up in NW Canada on the EC ensembles. We'll need it, because the se ridge is alive and well. If that wasn't there, it would be a heck of a cold pattern. It's also trying to branch higher heights across the North Pole and trying to weaken that unbelievably strong vortex. But lets not get too excited because it still is not a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I do like the ridging showing up in NW Canada on the EC ensembles. We'll need it, because the se ridge is alive and well. If that wasn't there, it would be a heck of a cold pattern. It's also trying to branch higher heights across the North Pole and trying to weaken that unbelievably strong vortex. But lets not get too excited because it still is not a good pattern. Day 9 threat appears to be real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Day 9 threat appears to be real The ensembles looked warm with it, but yeah something might be around that time. Not really sold on a winter threat yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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