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Early December Pattern Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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Wow what an unmitigated catastrophe on the GFS. Likely overzealous with next weekend's cold and than a horrifying lakes cutter.

Absolute epic fail through day 8.

What are you talking about??? I love the look of the 00z GFS through hr 180....

For me in San Diego..... Sorry guys... 2011-2012 "the year without a winter, but a historic fall snowstorm..."

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Wow what an unmitigated catastrophe on the GFS. Likely overzealous with next weekend's cold and than a horrifying lakes cutter.

Absolute epic fail through day 8.

Wouldn't a lakes cutter be a good thing and a sign that the pattern is shifting? I would think a good wound up cutter would help in the process of creating blocking to our north. Would it allow cold air to surge in behind and get us moving in the right direction?

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Wouldn't a lakes cutter be a good thing and a sign that the pattern is shifting? I would think a good wound up cutter would help in the process of creating blocking to our north. Would it allow cold air to surge in behind and get us moving in the right direction?

You're going to live long....you are a great optimist.

I think someone has alluded to the fct that our cutters can't cut north enough this year to help the NAO. The pattern globally seems locked in but I'm sure we'll get a few chances.

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00z EC is more optimistic about some front end snow for parts of NNE Thu than the GFS and the d9-10 is there. 00z EC ens have the threats too and look a little better d11-15 with some ridging into the Aleutians although the PV is still camping out by Thule.

Thank you for offering a ray of light into this gloomy thread. The combination of Debbie Downer and Messenger of the apocalypse has been stifling. The negative spin has been as bad as the overly optimistic weenie posts we sometimes get. I'll take the 00z EC and hope it continues to evolve in a positive way.

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You're going to live long....you are a great optimist.

I think someone has alluded to the fct that our cutters can't cut north enough this year to help the NAO. The pattern globally seems locked in but I'm sure we'll get a few chances.

My main points and the reason for my unfettered optimism:

- I think there is emerging evidence that the pattern is shifting, things that might not show up strongly on the models yet. I think Isotherm, HM, LC have talked about this.

- This is not a boring pattern. We have a pattern of high qpf events that continues. I bet Thursday overperforms vs. the <.25 that GYX is now calling for. We have an energized subtropical jet which is almost always good for NE. These highly anomolous storms moving into the UK suggest a rubber band that snaps.

- As winter progresses the westerlies sink, lots of snow in Canada creates cold, a gradient sets up and many in NE benefit...maybe not you, but certainly up here. So if the current pattern continues I think I still do pretty well. If it changes, I think I do well.

- It is early and better to have this sort of pattern early rather than mid or late.

- We live in New England.

- I've already had one god-awful winter 2009-2010 recently.

- We are in a decadal -NAO pattern.

- I believe in the Rebbe, even when he doubts himself.

I say all of this will a strong knocking on a wood surface and utterances of "Kina Hora"

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I continue to be amazed at the people that #1 look at the GFS and #2..actually think it's right..some of the people that use and look at that POS are knowledgeabe folks too. Just very odd.

Euro looks good and actually has a snow event for us Day 9.

BTW did anyone notice this week isn;t turning out mild? low 40's today/tomorrow 30's Wed and one day in the pper 40's on Thursday and then the cold front comes thru Friday.

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00z EC is more optimistic about some front end snow for parts of NNE Thu than the GFS and the d9-10 threat is there. 00z EC ens have the threats too and look a little better d11-15 with some ridging into the Aleutians although the PV is still camping out by Thule.

Hasn't the pattern been that the overnight Euro sucks and the 12Z is optimistic? Has that pattern change? 12z Euro BROOL (Biggest Run Of Our LIves)?

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I continue to be amazed at the people that #1 look at the GFS and #2..actually think it's right..some of the people that use and look at that POS are knowledgeabe folks too. Just very odd.

Euro looks good and actually has a snow event for us Day 9.

BTW did anyone notice this week isn;t turning out mild? low 40's today/tomorrow 30's Wed and one day in the pper 40's on Thursday and then the cold front comes thru Friday.

You are turning the corner Rev....

I am hoping that it won't be only Pete, Steve and I (edit: I should've added Blizz24) who will have to lead this winter. We are losing the Rebbe so we need the Rev.

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I do like the ridging showing up in NW Canada on the EC ensembles. We'll need it, because the se ridge is alive and well. If that wasn't there, it would be a heck of a cold pattern. It's also trying to branch higher heights across the North Pole and trying to weaken that unbelievably strong vortex.

But lets not get too excited because it still is not a good pattern.

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I do like the ridging showing up in NW Canada on the EC ensembles. We'll need it, because the se ridge is alive and well. If that wasn't there, it would be a heck of a cold pattern. It's also trying to branch higher heights across the North Pole and trying to weaken that unbelievably strong vortex.

But lets not get too excited because it still is not a good pattern.

Day 9 threat appears to be real

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