Typhoon Tip Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 18z run being weenie again. That's the 1st period I was hoping, but it is heavy heavy needle threading. Well...if you think about it ... heh heh, we are in the same pattern, and just did something similar. Maybe this time around there's more cold to work with. straw grasping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 That kooky 18z. Always the life of the party. Last week would have been nice "if only" The next thing might be "if onlier" but I wouldn't get worked up yet Blizz24 ft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Well...if you think about it ... heh heh, we are in the same pattern, and just did something similar. Maybe this time around there's more cold to work with. straw grasping. Extra confluence up north? Wouldn't surprise me to see something work out like the GFS shows. Not much margin for error though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 That kooky 18z. Always the life of the party. Last week would have been nice "if only" The next thing might be "if onlier" but I wouldn't get worked up yet Blizz24 ft? Sometimes the ol 18z gfs is the 1st one to snuff out a threat..................or not.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I don't like a winter to blow its load too quickly....much prefer to have a long warm fall and warm pattern now. Once it changes we are in for a good ride. I think it changes by the 25th as you predicted. Yesterday was the 10th, very cold night last night, my pond frozen all day...the really strong + anomolies are gone. It's on schedule Rebbe. I love your brother but I must say you are delusional. Your very cold night was barely climo for the first time this month. But one thing in your favor...the squirrels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Gotta get lucky eventually... Not a bad four day stretch here. 30's for four straight days and subfreezing this weekend for highs. 13 for a low this morning. Down to 23 now. It was just nice to have the mud frozen for awhile.... Extra confluence up north? Wouldn't surprise me to see something work out like the GFS shows. Not much margin for error though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Gotta get lucky eventually... Not a bad four day stretch here. 30's for four straight days and subfreezing this weekend for highs. 13 for a low this morning. Down to 23 now. It was just nice to have the mud frozen for awhile.... I agree as we move deeper into the winter season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I love your brother but I must say you are delusional. Your very cold night was barely climo for the first time this month. But one thing in your favor...the squirrels. Bat mitzvah Blizzard incoming Jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I'm feeling really confident about the storm on the 19th now, because the GFS always handles 300km wavelength mesovorts at 180hrs sooo well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Isotherm has interesting stuff in the NYC thread. It does go along with January gradually getting better and solar flux is dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Sometimes the ol 18z gfs is the 1st one to snuff out a threat..................or not.....lol Tippy said the same exact thing last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I'm feeling really confident about the storm on the 19th now, because the GFS always handles 300km wavelength mesovorts at 180hrs sooo well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Tippy said the same exact thing last nite It has before, It was a pretty big difference from 12z, We need to catch a break here sooner or later, Rather it be sooner for the sanity of this board.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 At least the models have some threats to track, Beats this boring crap we have had... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 You guys can lock up the 19th storm now since I won't be here... Damn You guys will needs to see a huge shift to the eat though in this time frame, cause you know it will just trend NW about 72 hours like the last one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Saw one of Jerry's squirrels at the park today. They're really eating well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Saw one of Jerry's squirrels at the park today. They're really eating well. They are also mating with wolves.....very odd big winter incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Isotherm has interesting stuff in the NYC thread. It does go along with January gradually getting better and solar flux is dropping. That stuff has really been working out for him and HM in their long range forecasting. It makes sense, but I still don't dare mention it in any forecasts until I have a complete grasp. Definitely has me interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 They are also mating with wolves.....very odd big winter incoming! I think that's a sign too, I really do. If we see CT Blizz exhibiting the same behavior we'll know it's time for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I love your brother but I must say you are delusional. Your very cold night was barely climo for the first time this month. But one thing in your favor...the squirrels. You will see that it was you that were delusional....after you were not delusional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Wednesday Night: A chance of freezing rain after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday: Rain or freezing rain likely. The freezing rain could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Congrats to Pete on the freezing rain for Thursday....maybe enough to give MPMs daughter a delayed opening to school...again, congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 And for everyone else, this is all you've got until the storm next Sunday that will probably be rain. Congrats and Enjoy Wednesday: A slight chance of snow showers before 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 That stuff has really been working out for him and HM in their long range forecasting. It makes sense, but I still don't dare mention it in any forecasts until I have a complete grasp. Definitely has me interested Yeah same here..I don't have a big grasp on some of that stuff...although the uptick in solar back in the fall had me a little concerned about a -NAO...but I never would have imagined the +NAO regime that we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Pattern change should begin 1/10-15. Between and then, since we're entering the bottom of climo in w few weeks, we'll probably have some chances. I liken this season to 1999-00. When it flips it will be furious. Hopefully it lasts longer than that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Pattern change should begin 1/10-15. Between and then, since we're entering the bottom of climo in w few weeks, we'll probably have some chances. I liken this season to 1999-00. When it flips it will be furious. Hopefully it lasts longer than that year. I'm thinking it's mostly changed for the better by then...ie it's not going to be a switch flipping like in past years. I really do have some hope for transitional events starting after about the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I'm thinking it's mostly changed for the better by then...ie it's not going to be a switch flipping like in past years. I really do have some hope for transitional events starting after about the 20th. OE precip for you maybe Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 OE precip for you maybe Wed. Doesn't look very exciting but it'll be good for the coastal plain to get destroyed for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 0z GFS much colder and slower with the energy in the SW @ hr 132 then 18z @138.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 GFS is cold next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 GFS is cold next weekend. Transient. Looks to warm right back up afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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